Is China's debt about to sink its economy? If so, scratch that "China won't go to war and risk their economy" theory of peace.
China's debt may be 350% of its GDP. And maybe more if economic statistics are being rigged (at some level in the system) to hide the problem. This will have repercussions (tip to Instapundit):
However much debt there is, senior Chinese leaders are facing problems they cannot solve, something evident from, among other things, defaults by large property developers, the so-called “mortgage boycotts” of homeowners refusing to pay loans, and bank runs.
The Communist Party knows—and has known for a long time—the game could not go on forever. Wen Jiabao himself in 2007 talked about what has become known as the economy’s “Four Uns.” Growth then, he said, was “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable.”
What happens now?
Mind you, Gordon Chang has been predicting doom for decades, now. But he concludes, "There is now no hope the country can avoid one of the biggest economic crises in history." Could be. China has a large economy to judge and with the perspective of historical time rather than news cycle time, even being off by 3 or 4 decades on a prediction is really pretty good.
Hell, I've been watching for signs of decline and collapse, too. But the big problem is that if China's rulers see the signs of their economic distress before we do, China rulers may take actions we won't like and don't see coming.
With securing the Chinese Communist Party monopoly of power the prime function of the Chinese state, China might decide a short and glorious war is just the thing to keep the people in line during bad economic times. Replace prosperity with nationalism, and the CCP buys time.
And smashing up a weaker target and occupying it might allow China to loot the target and buy even more time. Mostly I'm thinking Taiwan, but it could even be Russia, weakened and exposed as a Potemkin power by its war against Ukraine.
China might go to war for a lot of bad reasons that they think are good--or the least bad option. Stuff happens. But if China can't manage that victory for the purpose of looting, regardless of the reason the war starts, even a losing war might provide the excuse for the CCP to clamp down at home and maintain power. That path means all our talk of how China won't risk war because it puts their economy at risk goes out the window:
And as long as I am on a roll of worst-case scenarios, what if something happens that completely upsets the variables in China's calculation that it prefers trade and prosperity to the potential failures of war? What if their economy tanks? Doesn't that make the trade prosperity issue less compelling? Especially if the peasants are revolting? Especially if the xenophobia the Chinese rulers have been stirring up to replace faith in communism leads to public pressure to deal with whatever foreign devil is "causing" their economic problem?
And if we look at what China is doing mobilizing and moving their military forces, yet believe the Chinese aren't facing economic decline that causes internal unrest, we'll rationalize China's apparent war preparation as something else. An exercise. Diplomatic pressure. Preparations for a domestic crackdown. Something other than launching a war, because that just doesn't make sense, right?
Never forget that the Chinese rulers get to define what is rational for themselves.
UPDATE: If we have a narrow window to prepare to defend Taiwan from a Chinese assault, in the short run we need more anti-ship missiles before we rely on more hulls that take longer to build and put into action.
UPDATE: Congress is moving a bill forward to expedite more arms to Taiwan.
UPDATE: China has problems.
NOTE: Winter War of 2022 updates continue here.
