Too many Westerners say the Pentagon leaks support their claim that Russia will keep fighting Ukraine no matter how much we help Ukraine because the Russians can't afford to admit defeat. I think Russia will accept defeat when it is the least bad option left.
What the documents also suggest, as if it hasn’t become obvious by now, is that the war has not been an unbroken chain of brilliant underdog battlefield victories for Ukraine and crushing defeats for Russia, as the corporate media and the Washington political establishment have led us to believe. It rather seems like chaotic and indecisive butchery on both sides, with weapons and cash pouring in not just from the U.S. but from all over the world sustaining a large-scale war of attrition with no end in sight.
War is chaotic butchery? No! Way! And it costs money! Who knew?
How is any of this not obvious from the news? Has my coverage
been cheerleading? No. It's pro-Ukraine. Or more precisely, pro-America. And I rely on the news! The news informed me that Ukraine needed Western air defense systems because Ukraine would run out of Soviet-era missiles. We did not need that leak to tell us that. FFS, if it is news to you, that's on you.
As to the tremendous amounts of money America is spending to defeat the Russians, we spent how many tens of
trillions keeping the Soviets at bay? I find $80 billion spent helping Ukraine a bargain--less than 1.3% of the $6.27 trillion America spent in fiscal year 2022--to
wreck Russia's military and keep it as far east as possible. Their brutality in
this war should demonstrate why that is necessary.
People like to say Russia can't afford to end the war without victory. So we should just let Ukraine die. At the moment Russia can't admit defeat. But at some point if Russia continues screwing the pooch, ending the war with retreat may seem like the best outcome Russia can get.
Would the superior alternative American strategy have been one where Ukraine lost quickly and spared Russia and the West the costs of the war?
Really? Let the Wookie win?
My hope is that the Russian military is fragile enough from supply, command, training, equipment, and morale problems on top of casualties for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive to shatter it at the point of attack. But I can't know that. Russian troops on some sections of the front are still willing to charge into the meat grinder.
Ultimately you have to attack to win. The counteroffensive will answer my question.
If the Russians see no end in sight for their casualties and bleeding economy, they'll turn around and leave their conquests. Let's focus on helping Ukraine beat Russia as soon as possible.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Interesting review of Ukraine's initial maneuver brigade strength. Are the 12 brigades being formed (9 with Western weapons) new units, as reported? Or rebuilt units?
And what of the 6 other brigades that in theory are needed to round out the 3 corps of 6 maneuver brigades each being gathered for the counteroffensive? Are these rebuilt units? Or new units with Ukrainian equipment?
UPDATE (Wednesday): Huh:
Fragments of two Ukrainian drones slammed into the Kremlin, causing a fireball near the roof of one building in the early hours of Wednesday, the Russian government said in a statement.
The payload seems too small to have posed any risk to
anyone in the building. Might have been dissident Russians. Might be the government itself.
But why would the Russian government advertise--or even fake--this kind of defensive failure? Mathias Rust was unavailable for comment.
UPDATE (Wednesday): The common figure I've heard complaints about is $80 billion in aid to Ukraine. But I assume that includes training, other support, and economic aid. And most of that probably doesn't reach Ukraine. The military aid component is now at $36 billion.
UPDATE (Wednesday): ISW thinks the Russian government staged the small attack:
The rapid and coherent presentation of an official Russian narrative around the strike suggests that Russia staged this incident in close proximity to the May 9th Victory Day holiday in order to frame the war as existential to its domestic audience.
I wonder if the effect on the public will be what the government intends. Some Russians have brought up Rust.
UPDATE (Thursday): Review of AFVs, IFVs, and APCs in the 9 new Ukrainian brigades being readied for counteroffensive. Lots of Soviet-era tanks. As I've noted, the heavy lifting will be done by Soviet models and not the newest Western tanks.
Also, early reports are that 18 brigades are in the counteroffensive force. Which I assume are largely equipped with Ukraine's Soviet-era vehicles.
UPDATE (Friday): Updated review of new Ukrainian brigades to include artillery.
UPDATE (Friday): Interesting, if true:
Prigozhin has complained for months that Russia's defense ministry is failing to adequately supply his private army, claiming the generals are jealous of his own group's battlefield success. But in a second message posted later Friday, the mercenary commander went further, announcing an imminent withdrawal of Wagner's forces from the battle over Bakhmut.
Prigozhin's real fight is the Russian "game of thrones." The
battlefield is a means to that. As the expression goes about that kind
of a fight, you win--or you die
tragically fall out of a window.
Will Wagner forces turn over its Bakhmut frontage to the Russian military as he said? Or is this more of his colorful hyperbole?
UPDATE (Friday): Lately, I've noticed Ukrainian forces counterattacking more. Ukraine is leaning forward. But ISW judges these are not part of a counteroffensive:
Ukrainian forces appear to be seizing some of these opportunities, as noted below, but ISW does not assess that these counterattacks are necessarily part of the anticipated counteroffensive.But I imagine they may develop into a counteroffensive if they find weak spots.
UPDATE (Saturday): Despite reports Russia is going over to the defensive to prepare for a Ukrainian counteroffensive, Ukraine reports Russia continues to attack:
In its daily report on May 6, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said Ukrainian forces repelled some 50 attacks in Bakhmut and elsewhere in the Donetsk region, including Maryinka and Avdiyivka.
Although I assume many are artillery strikes and that these are relatively minor and local.
UPDATE (Sunday): Prigozhin's threats worked:
Russia's Wagner Group boss says Moscow has agreed to his demands for more ammunition, days after he threatened to withdraw his men from Bakhmut.
UPDATE (Sunday): Huh:
Prigozhin and Kadyrov likely effectively blackmailed the Russian MoD into allocating resources to Wagner forces in Bakhmut by threatening to pull Kadyrov’s Chechen forces from other parts of the theater to relieve Wagner forces in Bakhmut.
How long can Putin or the Ministry of Defense let Prigozhin (and Kadyrov) get away with this? And what does it say about Russia's ability to command its forces in a defensive effort?
Heck, would Putin welcome a Ukrainian counteroffensive that defeated Wagner forces? And doesn't that mean Ukraine would be foolish to do Putin's dirty work for him by targeting that section of the front?
NOTE: ISW coverage of the war continues here.
[And oops, accidentally set this originally for a PM rather than AM publication.]
