Is the lack of air power the reason the Winter War of 2022 has been largely static for more than half a year? Is that the lesson we should draw from the war so far? I don't think so.
"What you are seeing particularly in Ukraine at the moment, is how essential it is to secure the necessary level of access to airspace. If you don't, standby for a bloody attritional slog with images that look like they have come out of World War One".
This view was echoed by Maj Gen James Kriesel, National Guard Assistant to the Commander, USAFE-A, later in the day, who said that "there are some out there that say that air dominance is not critical. And that what matters is owning key terrain, mashing of forces and logistics to really support an artillery slugfest. I disagree. If anything is conflict demonstrates that the protracted brutality of a conflict where neither side has gained air dominance".
That first quote was the deputy commander of the NATO air command.
There is no evident cause-and-effect like that from the Winter War of 2022.
Russia advanced quite quickly in the south despite not using open Ukrainian skies early in the war.
And Russia advanced in Luhansk and Kharkiv provinces despite not using much air power.
Russia faltered not from lack of air power but because reliable Ukrainian ground forces finally arrived to bar the Russian advance in the south. And Russian logistics faltered too far from railroads.
On the other side, Ukraine managed to easily advance despite having little air power on the Kherson front and on the Kharkiv front.
We shall see if the big Ukrainian counteroffensive takes ground. If it does, will we stop insisting that air power is necessary to advance and avoid static trench warfare?
Still, the air marshal did specify "necessary level of access to airspace". Notwithstanding what the American major general said in support of the crucial role of air power, perhaps we need to go to the Definitions section.
Because while I value close air support and ground attack, I think it is possible the Air Force mostly needs to deny the enemy use of the air to attack friendly ground targets. If ground forces have the necessary assets, ground-based fire support is enough to advance and maneuver. As long as enemy air power is nullified.
"Necessary level of access" to the airspace over a battlefield may be achieved with cheap drones that can be lost in large numbers and space assets that look down from relative safety.
I mean, the lack of Air Force interest in providing close air support to ground forces seemingly indicates the Air Force doesn't think maneuver is only possible if airplanes intervene in the ground fight.
NOTE: The image was made with DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
