Taiwan spends too little on defense and spends on the wrong, expensive items? I think Taiwan needs those expensive items and agree it spends too little on defense. But I think spending much more on defense would allow it to buy those cheaper "asymmetric" weapons without undermining other needed capabilities. Ultimately, Taiwan must drive the invaders into the sea to avoid eventual disaster. Basically, I reject the "porcupine" defense concept.
How America makes NATO more effective and how NATO increases security for all its members.
For those who recall how the USSR outproduced Germany in World War II, recall that the West supplied the Russians with the raw materials and specialized equipment rather than throttle access to the means of production: "Russia ordered major increases in weapons production at the same time they declared details of the process a state secret. The real reason for this extra secrecy is that production is not going very well. Too many key components are not available from the usual foreign suppliers because of the sanctions." Add in corruption, and you have reason to doubt Putin's confidence he can outlast NATO-backed Ukraine.
In Australia, "the largest-ever Talisman Sabre exercise" is held, with many nations participating.
Welcome to the Strait of Malacca: "The first of four German-built diesel-electric attack submarines has
arrived in Singapore, the Southeast Asian nation’s Defence Ministry
announced." Well, it's close.
This author suspects China's carriers would be air defense platforms protecting missile-carrying warships that would be the main offensive threat. The carrier could push out a defensive envelope farther from China's land airfields. This is reasonable. I think the first Chinese carrier will conduct a SINKEX with American carriers invited to the event.
How humiliating is this for Putin? "Less than a year ago, the White House was warning of 'unprecedented' military ties between Russia and Iran, but today, there are signs of increasing friction, with Moscow proving to be an unreliable partner."
Despite the media amplification of Democratic charges that Republicans are now extreme conservatives, it is the Democrats who have become more extreme: "In one of the biggest surprises revealed since the ratings began, there are twice as many Democrats with perfect zero conservative ratings in the House and Senate today than in 1971. And there are significantly fewer Republicans with 100% ratings in the House and Senate today than 51 years ago." WDC drags politicians to the left, it seems. This has been obvious to anyone who pays attention. Republicans have on average become more populist. Which in some disturbing ways is indistinguishable from New Deal Democratic policies, with different rhetoric. Tip to Instapundit.
Given the results of Koran burnings, they have all the hallmarks of Russian information operations against the West. And the Russians would be in bonus territory if the West responds by curtailing freedom of expression in response.
You'd have to be crazy not to wear a hijab! This reflects the Iranian government's policies.
Ukraine might get F-16s in the autumn . It could have been faster.
Could China compel Russia to end the invasion and abandon plans to conquer Ukraine? And persuade Ukraine to give up land to Russia? I doubt basing this potential on the Saudi-Iran deal China presided over is evidence of this ability to get a deal. Although to be fair, the author accurately calls it a "minor deal". But if China does push for peace, China has decided not to pounce on Russia while it is busy in the West.
Follow the science opinion. So now being an opinion denier is horrible? Tip to Instapundit.
Bulgaria will send military aid to Ukraine, including a hundred Soviet armored vehicles.
Two drones hit buildings in Moscow, causing little damage. These seem like psychological warfare strikes given their tiny payloads.
The Biden administration shovels money at China in broad daylight.
Sure, China is selling equipment to Russia useful to its military. But if Germany restricted its provision of aid to Ukraine to such things, we'd be angry at Germany. China isn't perfect. But considering that "partnership without limits" with Russia, this is as good as it gets.
Yeah: "More than a year and half after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, land mines have become one of the most daunting issues for the Ukrainian counteroffensive." I would not be shocked if some states that signed the land mine ban treaty withdraw if they think they might need them to hold off an invader. The mines and dud shells/bombs will kill people for generations.
To Hell with the women's "national" soccer team for refusing to respect our national anthem before games. They don't want to represent America? Don't. Nobody is forcing them to play. So go home. Or someplace they think is better. Don't let the Statue of Liberty hit you in the ass on the way out. I'm sorry the minority of players who paid respect to our country have to suffer. May they do well. But the team as a whole? I actually hope they lose.
Russia has extended the age of reservist liability for service.
What an unexpected development: "Despite continued IEA (Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan) government denials, they appear to be tolerating the presence of al Qaeda personnel as well as TTP (the Pakistani Taliban). TTP support was expected but IEA insists it will not tolerate any Islamic terror groups. They are either lying or simply don’t have much control in many parts of the country."
The American biofuels industry harms endangered species and harms the environment. Tip to Instapundit. Funny enough, fossil fuels are biofuels made by the planet from ancient plants and animals. And now for something completely different:
"The science" lied to us. And they wonder why people don't trust them. Blaming us for not trusting them! Scientists are people. People are flawed. Just being a scientist doesn't make a person less flawed. And don't get me going on the activists who amplify human bias in transmitting what the science says to the reporters to write about it. More reasons to scratch off "the science" in that "In this house we believe" sign you put on your lawn.
A "frozen conflict" that worked well for us. Western analysts fling panties at Russia's allegedly brilliant use of this strategy. The sound of crickets overwhelms me on the Korean peninsula.
This woman is a moron and you shouldn't believe her. On anything. Including her name which she can't seem to settle on.
Positive thoughts about the next Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Franchetti. Fingers crossed. Tip to Instapundit.
Thoughts on organizing Army regimental combat teams for megacity combat. I'm all on board doing it well. I like the recognition of fighting under the city. I am concerned we will engage in that form of combat because we can and not because we should to advance the campaign objective.
The commander of a MEU practicing EABO in the Pacific emphasized "In the vast Pacific, 'it’s all about logistics,' Meyer said." Good. That aspect concerns me a great deal. I had thoughts about these types of operations in 2017 in Proceedings.
The latest American military assistance package for Ukraine.
The Russians don't want to fight America while they are faltering fighting Ukraine. But the Russians do want to scare America into scaling back help for Ukraine: "A Russian fighter jet fired flares directly at an American MQ-9 Reaper drone over Syria on Sunday, damaging its propeller, U.S. Air Forces Central announced Tuesday[.]" I assume the Russians are trying to encourage Iran to attack American forces in eastern Syria. We should openly give Ukraine 10 long-range missiles every time the Russians screw with us like that. And quietly ship more if Iran attacks our troops.
As I've said, I used to respect Democrats on free speech: "In an identically worded poll five years ago, Democrats and Republicans favored free speech online by roughly 3 to 2 margins. Today, Republicans still favor the First Amendment by about that much. But Democrats have turned against it by even more." But that was many decades ago.
Sh*t got real: "Large Scale Exercise 2023 kicks off next month and will link 25,000 sailors and Marines across 22 time zones, seven fleets, six U.S. combatant commands in a blend of live and virtual training that will test the suppositions of key warfighting concepts for both services." This is great power "competition."
I've said I fear that by firing generals that Putin might accidentally find a competent commander. So this is a humorous and reassuring bonus of the Wagner Revolt: "The outcome made it much harder to demote his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, or top commander, Valery Gerasimov, despite their demonstrated incompetence and loss of support among the officer class. But loyalty comes first."
Also: "Kyiv can add to the anxieties in Moscow, demonstrating that no part of Russia is secure, punishing Russian forces at the front and opportunistically liberating territory even if it is not quite what military planners intended." I've said exactly this, too.
I noted that a combination of Belarus hosting Wagner troops and Russian nukes (if real warheads are sent, can Putin be sure Belarus won't gain control?) seems more like a Belarusian effort to push Russia away. Says ISW of the Lukashenko-Putin meeting in Russia: "Lukashenko was likely trying to leverage Putin’s concern over the Wagner Group throughout the entire visit to Russia to gain favorable conditions in Belarusian-Russian relations while deflecting Putin’s demands for closer integration into the Union State and support for Russia’s war in Ukraine."
Is Russia running out of military options despite increasing worry in the West about Ukraine's counteroffensive? Is Russia continuing to attack in Luhansk a sign of Russian strength? Or a sign that Putin cannot shift to the strategic defensive to conserve military power to repel Ukraine's counteroffensive? Is anything less than a clear offensive win a danger to Putin's control of his military and Russia?
Sounds good: "The United States Coast Guard is in talks with Pacific Island countries to expand its maritime law enforcement role by allowing U.S. officers to board and search vessels suspected of illegal activity within their economic zones, officials said."
China would certainly want any war involving America to be short: " If China did face the degree of sanctions Russia received, the results would be catastrophic because, while the Chinese economy is much larger than Russia’s, it is much more sensitive to major disruptions. While China is still a communist police state, there is greater risk of major internal unrest if the economy is mismanaged. Incurring heavy sanctions is seen as mismanagement." Although I suspect China could cope better than we hope they can. Or China might go to war against Russia to avoid economic problems.
Huh. The police arrested "climate change" that was blamed for the devastating July 2022 Yosemite National Park fire. Tip to Instapundit.
Ukraine learned after 2014. Russia is learning now.
The uselessness of the Iran nuclear deal framework to block an Iranian nuclear weapons program is highlighted by the ridiculous amount of time Iran has to formally deny in writing it is doing anything wrong.
Democrats love Iran's mullahs so much that nothing they do can tarnish the shine: "Iran is deploying mass surveillance tactics, including CCTV tracking, to
crack down on women who defy compulsory veiling, human rights activists
have warned." This never get old:
That's certainly a start: "The Marine Corps stood up its first-ever Tomahawk cruise missile battery at Camp Pendleton, Calif., last week." No word if they have anti-ship capabilities, too.
Speculating about China's "string of pearls" bases across the Indian Ocean in an effort to secure lines of supply to the Middle East and Africa. I wonder if China's anti-ship ballistic missiles are intended for that front rather than primarily being a western Pacific weapon.
Iran is helping Russia build a drone factory. It should be finished early next year. Will it really dramatically increase Russia's drone stockpile?
Treating Ukraine's wounded troops. At least the Ukrainian troops get medical treatment. Lord knows how many Russian troops don't--then die.
Left-wing Israeli reservists who claim they won't serve because of needed supreme court reforms (but I don't have an opinion on the specific reforms passed) are putting Israel at risk: "The crisis sweeping Israel has become a focal point for its enemies across the Middle East who have convened top-level meetings to weigh the turmoil and how they might capitalise on it, sources familiar with the discussions say."
Prioritizing Taiwan over Ukraine right now won't help Taiwan. Taiwan has frankly been shirking its defense responsibilities for decades with absurdly low defense spending. If the danger period for Taiwan is soon, it's kind of too late to shove weapons onto Taiwan to deter China. All we can hope is that Taiwan got the wake-up call and will prioritize defense in time. And hope China isn't thinking of attacking soon. Shorting Ukraine on weapons now just gives Russia a better chance of winning now.
I was shocked at some talk of 100,000 Russian troops in Luhansk. Although I doubted they could possibly be well equipped. Seems to be phantom soldiers.
At least they do it openly and don't deny it: "Soldiers in the West African country of Niger have announced a coup on national TV."
Ten more long-range missiles for Ukraine, I say: "A Russian fighter jet fired flares and struck another U.S. drone over Syrian airspace on Wednesday[.]"
Lithuania will buy up to 54 Leopard II tanks.
Russia tested their national Internet cut off from the world.
Yeah: "The growing use of small, armed USVs as cheap cruise missiles created the need for equally inexpensive systems to deal with this threat." I proposed drone combat air patrols in Army magazine.
Ukraine could have manpower problems. What they have needs to be better trained. Older men may need to be brought in to cover rear area security to free up younger men for combat units. And women may need to be more fully brought in. Ukraine should also look at their refugees abroad. And recruit foreigners more directly.
There is no such thing as a "benevolent dictatorship." Please put a certain panty-flinger on suicide watch.
Question: Which one is the client state? "Russia's defence minister was photographed this week viewing banned North Korean ballistic missiles with leader Kim Jong Un at a military expo in Pyongyang, signalling deeper ties between the two countries as they face off with the United States."
The Army needs to figure out how to better sell volunteering and not just rely on money, because serving "remains a choice of citizenship as well, one that must be explained and cultivated with every succeeding generation."
America shouldn't want to signal it can be bullied: "Dialing back Western Pacific freedom of navigation operations and military flights runs a “very high risk” of sending the wrong message to Beijing about U.S. intentions in the Indo-Pacific, security experts said Wednesday." Allies and friends thinking we can be pushed around has consequences.
Oh? "In the view of the CCP, from 1950 to 1953, an immensely weak China, reeling from its own recently concluded civil war, fought the titanic power of the United States and its Western allies to a standstill, establishing that Beijing’s strategic demands could not be ignored." China agreed to a ceasefire because it was being hammered. On the bright side from the CCP's perspective, the CCP sent a lot of former KMT soldiers to die in Korea. As for American memory? To be fair, it took a while to see the victory.
Did Japan say it will defend Taiwan? Tip to Instapundit. Well yes, yes it did.
China's navy is growing and the United States Navy isn't. That takes time to address--if our shipyards can be expanded to handle it. In the short run we have to maximize our ability to fire anti-ship missiles on existing ships. And auxiliary cruisers can fill the gap until the Navy expands.
There is a naval dimension in the Winter War of 2022. Sure. But the war will be decided on the land.
I don't think Russia adds much to China's naval power.
Leftism drives you crazy? After decades of "science" claiming conservatives are awful, this is welcome--regardless of its validity.
Well, yeah. Western tanks aren't immune to land mines. As you may recall I said Ukraine's old Soviet tanks would do the heavy lifting in a counteroffensive (this is the earliest mention I can find) .
Stupid policies can work for a while--or more accurately not immediately prove disastrous--when built on a foundation of good policies that provide a cushion of success and forward good momentum. But eventually the new vector of failure takes hold and accelerates. See Venezuela. Tip to Instapundit.
Russia hammered the Ukrainian air base whose planes use the Storm Shadow air-to-surface missile. The extent of damage is not known.
Well that's disturbing: "An F-35A Lightning II fighter crashed at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, last October when turbulent air confused its avionics, rendering the jet uncontrollable, an Air Force investigation has found."
American Abrams tanks are likely to be in the field by September.
An Army construction brigade was reactivated in Europe. Logistics.
Red Storm Rising Shrinking: Russia builds two new missile-armed corvette classes.
Britain accidentally sent defense emails to Mali (suffix ML) instead of the American military (suffix MIL). This after America did the same thing. Is this a Russian effort to misdirect emails with that typo? I really don't understand how emails went to a different address rather than just get bounced back.
I have no problem "understanding" a potential enemy. Exactly: "Certainly, we should never excuse or tolerate China’s abusive conduct based on their history." Understanding should not be an excuse to retreat.
Once again, the Air Force promises to destroy enemy ground forces, promising friendly ground forces will be spared the need to defeat them. Maybe the Golden Horde--which I've noted before--will do the job for sure this time!
Improving NATO cooperation in the Mediterranean Sea with U.S.-Italian cooperation. This will help make sure any Russian flotilla in the Mediterranean leads a short but exciting life during a war. And southern NATO states are concerned with illegal migrants and potential jihadis crossing the sea.
A Navy amphibious warship still can't sail out of port after two years of being overhauled in port. Serenity now!
A planet ten times as big as Earth is somewhere on a distant and probably off-plane orbit. I wonder if it is even in a position that we could reasonably see it with our best telescope? Tip to Instapundit.
In principle I'm not against quiet conversations with nuclear-armed Russia to keep things non-paranoid. But if it extends to talks about the war? No. We can see what happens when we cut a deal without our ally involved when you look at the outcomes for South Vietnam and Afghanistan--the enemy wins. Tip to Instapundit.
Even as Ukraine loses equipment pushing through Russian minefields and defensive lines, Ukraine will be able to recover and repair many--or break up equipment too damaged to repair for spare parts. Combat since World War II showed the importance of controlling ground long enough to recover armored fighting vehicle losses.
Sweden is worried that Koran desecration will lead Islamists to retaliate against its citizens. And Iranian officials are calling for retaliation against Sweden. Sweden should realize that sacrificing freedom of speech to appease the angry is a losing game considering what offends them. And second, as I've mentioned before, imagine Iran's power to retaliate if it had a nuclear weapons deterrent?
From the "Well, Duh" files: "Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on July 29 that the United States believes Russia's defense minister is in North Korea to secure supplies of weapons to aid the stalled invasion of Ukraine."
Russian strikes are trying to cut off Ukraine's Danube River grain export route. So far without lasting results.
"Understand" them. But don't give up our freedoms in a futile effort to keep them happy: "The leader of Lebanon’s Shiite militant group Hezbollah said Saturday that if governments of Muslim-majority nations do not act against countries that allow the desecration of the Quran, Muslims should 'punish' those who facilitate attacks on Islam's holy book."
The tyranny of the Israeli supreme court.
WT Actual F? "Why would a COVID lab run by a shady Chinese company be operating in Reedley, CA in the central San Joaquin Valley? The lab, which was supposed to be an empty building, was discovered by Reedley city code enforcement officers when they saw a garden hose attached to the building and investigated." Tip to Instapundit.
The U.S. is increasing military cooperation with Australia, including welcome logistics and manufacturing capabilities. America has been focused on the Japan-South Korea corner of Asia for a long time.
Huh: "Israel recently revealed that it is negotiating the sale of 200 older Merkava tanks. The sale value of these tanks is estimated to be more than $50 million. There are two potential customers, one in Europe and one somewhere else." And much more, including the black box of targeting decisions.
Reminder: "Authorities in Moscow temporarily closed the capital's Vnukovo airport after an overnight drone attack on July 30 injured one person and damaged two office buildings." I'm not happy that Ukraine hits Moscow. I'd rather they remind Russians on a higher plane. But the warheads are so small that they are clearly for information war purposes. Russia is a far worse violator on this issue.
The United States announced a military aid package for Taiwan.
