It seems like China is drawing the lessons it needs to win from the Russian invasion of Ukraine rather than learning that invading Taiwan is futile, as the West insists the lesson is.
China is learning lessons from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to apply to an invasion of Taiwan.
This line of Western thinking is all too common, I'm afraid:
Pentagon officials have said that Russia’s troubled invasion serves as a stark warning to China against risking a war over Taiwan, which lies about 100 miles off its coast.
But the Russian stumbles in the war are viewed differently by the Chinese:
“The shortcomings that have been exposed in the Russian military’s logistics and supplies should be a focus for us,” said an article in a magazine published by China’s agency for developing major military technology. It said that China had to prepare for similar challenges “when we consider future sea crossings, the seizure of islands” and other hazard-filled operations — an implicit reference to taking Taiwan.
Ultimately, though, studying Russia’s mistakes may bolster China’s conviction that it could prevail in a possible conflict, said foreign experts who study the People’s Liberation Army. China’s official military budget of $225 billion is nearly three times as big as Russia’s, and China’s vast manufacturing and technological capacity means it can produce plenty of advanced drones and other weapons that Russian forces have lacked.
It's a wake-up call to China. And I bet the Chinese figure they can do better than hairy steppe barbarians.
We are officially in favor of these missions because we believe that if the Chinese see how powerful we are, they won't try to fight us.
This is a crock. The Chinese know we are technically more advanced. What they think is that we are too pampered to fight them. And seeing our nice barracks and PXs with Chanel No. 5 won't convince them that we are hard warriors able to absorb high casualties. Seeing our military up close will simply give them insights into fighting us or at least cause them to believe that they have insights into fighting us[.]
And if Russia ends up controlling some of the Ukrainian territory it conquered in this current war, the Chinese will have learned the most important lesson of all. And as I noted in a related post, keeping any type of bridgehead on Taiwan after a ceasefire could cripple Taiwan:
Consider that Russia's 2022 invasion was Russia's third invasion of Ukraine. Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and captured territory in the Donbas in 2014 and 2015 which were used to build staging areas for the 2022 invasion. You might say that Russia's mobilization and preparation for a second Big Push in early 2023 is the fourth invasion.
That's what China would do even if it took years to carry out. And Taiwan does not have the depth of Ukraine to absorb territorial losses without losing the ability to effectively resist. That's the most important lesson that Taiwan can learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
I have no doubt China will pick up on that lesson, too.
Class dismissed.
Still, who knows what accurate lessons will actually reach the Chinese Communist Party's top leadership?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
