Do the Pentagon leaks explain the Pentagon's pessimism about Ukraine's chances? Hmmm. The Pentagon thought Kiev would fall in days and that Ukraine's conventional military would collapse. And the Pentagon thought Afghanistan's military would hang on two years after we skedaddled. I worry our models are crap. And I worry that we are building our military to win in the models and not to win in the real world.
So, both parties are horrified that the Joebot might be programmed for reelection. And the official backup is ... laughably ... frightening. So, as I already warned ...
Be careful what you wish for.
Prigozhin did not call on Putin to end the war against Ukraine.
How much did some conservatives complain that we were wasting money on the Afghan government whose troops did not have the heart to fight? (They did actually die in large numbers fighting the Taliban.) Now some conservatives are complaining that we are wasting money on the Ukraine government whose troops have the heart and ability to fight our common enemy. The Goldilocks war--that we aren't even fighting!--remains elusive.
Uh oh: "A team at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro is taking birds that have been preserved through taxidermy and converting them into drones in order to study flight." Next step, skin jobs. Tip to Instapundit.
Putin met with the Chinese defense minister and boasted of "regularly exchanging information that is useful to us, cooperating in the field of military-technical cooperation, [and] conducting joint exercises[.]" Information might be useful if China is providing intelligence and surveillance about Ukraine. Military-technical cooperation in the past consisted of China stripping Russia of old Soviet tech. Is China quietly providing computer chips to help Russia's war effort? But as far as I'm concerned, exercises just let the Chinese see the Russian military close up. Did China miss the signs of Russia's military problems? Or did China expect Russia to fight poorly?
An American RC-135 took a peek at Russia along new NATO member Finland's border.
A brief overview of the American military evolving.
USS Milius sailed through the Taiwan Strait in defiance of China's territorial claim.
Nearly half of Taiwan's fighters aren't able to fight; air defenses are uncoordinated; and missile defenses probably can't detect incoming missiles. But other than that, China can't possibly invade Taiwan, right?
My assumption is this was based on intelligence gained from last week's raid: "A US helicopter raid in northeast Syria targeted a senior ISIS leader and planner early Monday morning, according to a spokesman for US Central Command."
Why do some on the right defend that POS Discord leaker? One more thing to be confused about. Just because Democrats are oddly anti-Russian now is no reason for some Republicans to be anti-Ukraine.
Will the F-35's efficient networked logistics system be too vulnerable in wartime?
I really worry about our economy. Tip to Instapundit.
The secret lives of Navy dolphins. Tip to Instapundit.
Killing the geese that lay California's golden eggs. Enjoy.
Chicago's mayor refuses to set limits on extended period of criminal behavior in its downtown, giving us a preview of the next four years. It's not even summer yet. Tourists take note.
I guess we'll find out if the administration values appeasing Gaia over national defense. I'm just happy the Department of Defense is opposing the offshore wind farm plan.
America still needs Europe and is worthy of American defense commitments. I've raised these issues.
Japan and America will team up to develop rail guns.
Son of the Kraken in North Korea. Be somewhat afraid?
At least somebody in NYC is enforcing somebody's laws: "The FBI and federal prosecutors announced Monday the arrests of two New York residents who allegedly ran an undisclosed Chinese government police station in Manhattan's Chinatown neighborhood." But seriously, this is a problem. A global problem. And it still isn't solved. Why?
China let AI determine what a satellite observed.
True: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia would be a 'giant leap' towards ending the Arab-Israeli conflict." Is the Saudi-Iran detente a shield for the Saudis to do this?
Take and talk: "Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation,
asserted that Russia is 'interested in ending the war in Ukraine as fast
as possible'." Russia wants to end the war to hold as much of the land it conquered as possible.
I do believe we've established the price for Turkey to let Sweden in NATO: "The U.S. agreed Monday to sell Turkey $259 million in software it has long sought to upgrade its fleet of U.S. F-16 fighter jets." Is this the total price or the down payment?
Know your place! "Iran is attempting to reimpose strict dress codes months after a wave of unrest following the death of a young woman who had been detained by morality police saw women and girls remove their headscarves in protest."
Sudan: I assume whatever Amphibious Ready Group we have in CENTCOM is moving toward the Red Sea: "Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a U.S. diplomatic convoy was fired on but no U.S. personnel were injured."
Leaked Discord documents: "Egypt paused a plan to secretly supply rockets to Russia last month
following talks with senior U.S. officials and instead decided to
produce artillery ammunition for Ukraine[.]" I recently wondered where we got Russian/Soviet-caliber ammo to send to Ukraine. Was Egypt the source?
An argument to provide Ukraine with F-16s. I have thoughts.
Migrant kids in so-called "cages" until we could figure out where to safely send them is sounding pretty good now, eh? Tip to Instapundit.
NPR isn't really "state media" as Twitter labels it. NPR never backs Republicans when they run the government. It is Democrat media. Back in the day I listened to it while driving to and from work. It was useful to identify issues legislators might ask me about. But it was biased. NPR's idea of a balanced debate on Republicans was essentially "Are they evil? Or just too ignorant to know better?"
I'd worry about a so-called death of American diplomacy if so much of the call for diplomacy these days wasn't essentially the West negotiating for the Russians with itself, trying to disguise defeat as diplomacy to let the Wookie win. Really, Russia will never be grateful to the West for any diplomatic deal. The current round of war demonstrates what letting Russia keep a little bit of Ukraine in 2014 leads to, right?
How exciting! "The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group is in the South China Sea and the Makin
Island Amphibious Ready Group is operating in the Sulu Sea, according to
the USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker. Meanwhile, the People’s
Liberation Army Navy Shandong Carrier Strike Group continues its
training patrol in the Pacific." I fear the Navy is too eager to enter the PLAN SINKEX. More on the Shandong cruise and China's carrier plans.
South Korea's new frigate is designed for blue water missions. That's what a trading nation needs to survive. And yeah, that's one reason China wants a navy.
Is it foolish for the West to be talking about coping with a collapse of Russia's rump empire? It's worse than foolish. It's a mistake. Let's not get ahead of defeating the Russians in Ukraine. If we worry too much about a fragmenting Russia, that will give Russia the opportunity to win.
Democrats would normally be thrilled that left-wing Lula won in Brazil. But he's following Russian propaganda about Ukraine. So ... dissonance!
This Budweiser ad didn't offend me. At the very least, hypocrisy is the compliment vice pays to virtue, right? But let's see if Budweiser fires their marketing genius who hates their customer base and wasn't shy about expressing that. That's the problem. Not reaching out to new customers. [LATER: Bye? Via Instapundit. But she was not fired. Just told to be quiet while getting paid. So not enough.]
Is it true that German tanks are breaking down in Ukraine? Some percent will as they are being used for training. But is it more? Maybe. But I can never forget the news report prior to the 1991 Persian Gulf War that revealed American Bradley Fighting Vehicles had a crucial problem that prevented their full use. I assumed it was disinformation. We didn't have a problem with the Bradley.
Scrape together that crew for Kuznetsov! My God, it's actually happening! Squee!! Set sail! And build a bigger one! Hell, build more because Putin deserves a blue water armada!
OUT: 2 + 2 = 5. IN: 4 + 4 = dangling noose. Tip to Instapundit.
China's Middle East objective is much narrower than Westerners panic over: "China negotiated an arrangement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to guarantee the continued flow of Iranian and Saudi oil to China, which gets most of its oil from these two countries." But will China restrain Iran's war on Israel to keep the oil exports safe?
Islamic terrorist fundraising in South Korea.
Is it my imagination, or are the same people who insist America monitor American weapons sent to Ukraine to make sure they aren't sold on the black market or used to start World War III the same people complaining America has some special forces troops and spies in Ukraine?
Good: "Swedish Brig. Gen. Stefan Andersson announced on Twitter the arrival of the Marines as part of the Aurora 23 exercise, which is focused on countering a large-scale attack on the prospective NATO member. "
Size matters: "The U.S. Navy’s fleet would never reach the statutorily required 355 ships under two of the three scenarios outlined in the service’s latest long-range shipbuilding plan." But the Navy refuses to act like it picked a number.
A cease-fire in Sudan didn't take.
Yeah: "When a nation newly ascends or returns to the status of a leading international power, it often feels the need to publicly demonstrate its rise through a brief, victorious war. Today, China's increasing strength may tempt it to pursue such a conflict, and not necessarily with Taiwan, if it anticipates—perhaps incorrectly—that victory will be swift, decisive, and demonstrative." The target could be part of Taiwan. Could be Russia. I don't think it could be India.
When I read that House Republican spending control plans would affect red states more than blue states, my first reaction is that state-level analysis is a metric designed to obscure. The news is probably propaganda intended to defend ever-rising deficit spending. I wonder what county-level analysis would show?
Good: "Poland has begun building a state-of-the-art electronic barrier at its land border with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave to monitor and counteract any illegal activity[.]" Just make sure to take it if Russia invades NATO.
An American drone boat went through the Strait of Hormuz under overwatch from an American Coast Guard cutter. I have less confidence in these during peace when foes can capture them and we are constrained in shooting to protect the drone--as Iran has already tried. But in war, if the drone can shoot back or self-destruct to avoid capture, they will be more useful.
The U.S. announced a package of military assistance, mostly ammunition, for Ukraine.
CSIS: "the Russian military can rely on its mass and continue feeding older or less than state-of-the-art technology as long as it thinks it can simply outlast the Western deliveries of weapons and systems to Ukraine[.]" That's why Ukraine should avoid a war of attrition. Ukraine needs to punch through the front somewhere, break the morale of Russia's ground forces on a significant part of the front, and get them running. And surrendering. If Russia fears more of their troops will follow suit, Russia will order a retreat.
What did the president know? And when did he forget it? Big. If true, as the expression goes. Tip to Instapundit.
China works on its nuclear boats.
I'd take the author's worry about the opportunity costs of AUKUS if he didn't claim global warming is a bigger threat than China to Australia. I wonder about the capability planned for a couple decades in the future if the China threat is near. Is the threat not as imminent as some claim? Or should Australia focus on near-term capabilities to resist that imminent threat? Or is Australia planning a blended response to address both?
This will surely get people to move back to NYC. Why does NYC's mayor hate its people so much? Tip to Instapundit.
Fighting goes on in Sudan. I'm just saying that if I was in charge of Egypt or Ethiopia I'd want to engineer a friendly government in Sudan if the GERD Nile River dam dispute threatens to go kinetic. Later I find out that Egypt is supporting the Sudan military in the fight.
A Legend-class Coast Guard cutter headed to the South China Sea.
Economic interdependence will prevent war? "That was what Angell believed when he wrote The Great Illusion, the publication of which produced a stinging rebuke from the American naval historian and strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan. Mahan agreed with Angell that great powers 'are under no illusion as to the unprofitableness of war,' but he noted that wars are fought for causes and reasons other than economics, including 'ambition, self-respect, resentment of injustice, sympathy with the oppressed, hatred of oppression.' Globalization and economic interdependence do not eliminate these causes of war or others, such as the Thucydidean trilogy of fear, interest, and honor."
Europe is directing its energy supplies away from Russia. Naturally, the customers that Europe displaced will turn to Russia for energy. So it's a net gain for the West, but it isn't a silver bullet solution to the Russia problem.
When the government uses everybody's money to provide short-cuts to reach the results of good habits and practices, the people who exercise good habits and practices just feel like suckers. And the foundation of a working society weakens every time someone realizes they've been a sucker. This is just like the push to pay off student loans for wealthy grad students. And also, the short-cuts don't work.
Starship failed to reach orbit. I assume the engineers learned a lot.
I wrote some time ago that I'm done with Trump. I thank him for unexpectedly (to me) keeping the corrupt Hillary! out of the White House. And he endured a lot of unfair and ridiculous attacks by the media while doing a lot of conservative things. Did he make me cringe sometimes? Did I disagree with him sometimes? You bet. I also wish he'd won in 2020. But Trump is past his use-by date. His current persecution is certainly an outrage. Which is lessened by his own unfair attacks--which mimic Democratic accusations--on DeSantis. If Trump rides that outrage to win the Republican primary, I'll vote for him in the general just as a reaction to the TDS-based persecution. But Trump will be near the bottom of my list of who I want to win the primary. I'm starting to wonder if he is reverting to his left-wing populism that made me dislike him for so many decades.
From the "Well, Duh" files? The cult roots of health food. It has always seemed cult-like to me. Tip to The Morning Briefing.
Sudan: I assume afloat Marines are involved.
China has no interest in invading Taiwan? Probably. Thucydides would disagree that this closes the debate.
Ukraine's troops get much better medical care. That's good for Ukrainian morale. We'll see how bad it is for Russian morale.
And now for something completely different:
I wrote last spring that Russia's broad offensive initially was like Germany's 1941 strike in scope; and Russia's subsequent narrow attack in the Donbas was like Germany's 1942 southern offensive. I was perhaps too eager to call Severdonetsk the new Kursk. After all, Ukrainian counteroffensives had to take place first. We got those in Kharkiv and Kherson provinces. Is the long battle for Bakhmut like Germany's 1943 Kursk offensive? Will Ukraine's counteroffensive then continue the analogy and be the start of a string of Russian defeats?
Russia has raised the pay for new draftees. Things get awkward after that: "Not only are personnel costs devouring one-third of the defense budget, but in some cases, newly conscripted troops are being paid more than combat-experienced officers, including the ones training them."
I find this shocking news: "[In the German army], there is a lack of armored and mechanized units, which have been severely cut back over the years, a shortage of ammunition and weaknesses in the logistics of depot stockpiling. Many facilities, including barracks, are in poor condition. The German defense industry must be re-enabled for serial production and the procurement of armaments must be accelerated[.]" Who knew Germany has an army?
And they fired a SAM at an American aerial drone: "Russia has stepped up its harassment of U.S. forces in Syria, overflying American positions with armed fighters and closing within a few hundred feet of U.S. fighters, U.S. officials said."
From the "Well, Duh" Discord Leak files: "The documents record meetings between Kremlin officials and Russian
political strategists, and the Kremlin’s orders for the strategists to
focus on Germany to build antiwar sentiment in Europe and dampen support
for Ukraine. The files also chronicle the strategists’ efforts to
implement these plans and their reports back to the Kremlin." The Soviets were big on that in the Cold War. But we weren't allowed to discuss that because dissent was the highest form of patriotism, or something.
A Russian aircraft accidentally bombed the Russian city of Belgorod.
This post I missed is old: "The Biden [arms sale] policy places more emphasis on human rights than the previous administration’s April 2018 document." The post is illustrated with Biden in Saudi Arabia. This adds to understanding Saudi Arabia's recent diplomatic moves.
Is India going to address this obstacle to improving its military? "Personnel and pensions costs continue to constrain India’s efforts to modernise its armed forces and strengthen its domestic defence-industrial base."
Silent--but not so deadly, after all. People need to stop needlessly panicking. Or at least stop inflicting your panic on our children. Tip to Instapundit.
I missed this from a couple months ago: "The Customs and Border Protection apprehended 1,862 Chinese nationals trying to cross the US-Mexico border during the last quarter of 2022, according to numbers provided by Customs and Border Protection." Are these intended for China's "police" stations in America? Or are they special forces? They're not just for Taiwan, you know. And how many did we miss? Tip to The Morning Briefing.
The U.S. is sending Ukraine truck-mounted anti-aircraft guns to take on Russia's drones. Expensive anti-aircraft missiles aren't needed for every threat.
The U.S. has moved forces to our base in Djibouti for a possible Sudan embassy rescue mission. I believe we keep an infantry battalion there as a regional rapid reaction force for this type of mission. But the force in Spain was dispersed, as I mentioned in this November 2021 data dump. Although the V-22s are available, I think. But do they have the range to fly from Ethiopia or the Red Sea?
Is an official near-20% youth unemployment rate a threat to China's social stability? That would be a darned shame. I hope that induces caution by Xi Jinping. I worry he will just give them all jobs in the PLA and send them somewhere to keep busy. Tip to Instapundit.
House Democrats have lost their minds. Enemies of the state don't disappear by themselves, you know. I'm so old I remember when Democrats claimed Trump would do this sort of thing.
The NATO secretary general is confident Ukraine will liberate more land and that Ukraine will be in NATO. Is this telegraphing that Ukraine won't be supported to liberate all it's lost land and that NATO membership is the reward for going along with NATO's desire to wind this war down? Like I said, high stakes are involved with the counteroffensive. But don't assume Hungary is a yes vote. Or Turkey, for that matter. So the inducement may not be as solid as some who'd accept any "peace" deal would hope.
This sure is taking a long time: "The United States will begin training Ukrainian forces on how to use and maintain Abrams tanks in the coming weeks[.]"
Can you imagine the panic among government bureaucrats who get the job of making female crash test dummies for vehicle crash victim equity when Democrats also insist the only definition of being female is saying you are female?
He keeps inventing new ways to destroy our economy. Tip to Instapundit.
Sudan: Forces and aircraft from different nations are gathering. But the airports don't seem usable because of fighting. Are non-employees of the U.S. out of luck? Heck, are embassy staff out of luck? Will America have to insert troops?
Twitter blues (tip to Instapundit). I was on the crisis already:
Putin issued a "why we fight" pamphlet to his troops: "Most of the 2022 pamphlet goes into the official (Putin) version of why Russians are fighting in Ukraine. According to Putin the fight is all about thwarting a NATO conspiracy to weaken and destroy Russia." Why would NATO bother when Putin is doing such a great job on his own?
Seriously, I've yet to see Discord Leak information that isn't useful to have public: "Leaked U.S. intelligence documents have provided new details on as many as four Chinese spy balloons, including one that flew over a U.S. carrier strike group, before a balloon flew over the U.S. in February."
Warning: "While the American military sunk around 80 Chinese naval vessels during the course of the exercise, the Chinese military 'was able to gain a lodgment with about 80,000 troops on Taiwan,' a source close to the committee who was briefed on the scenario told the Washington Free Beacon." Getting--and remaining--ashore is the key metric.
Getting what they wished after Bad Orange Man pulled out of the Paris climate agreement.
Russia always has great weapons in development. Sadly, Russians don't operate them effectively even if decent weapons. Still, the names get better and better. Anyway, add the S-500 to the list.
And now for something completely different:
American troops got American embassy staff out of Sudan: "About 100 U.S. troops in three MH-47 helicopters carried out the operation. They airlifted all of roughly 70 remaining American employees from a landing zone at the embassy to an undisclosed location in Ethiopia. Ethiopia also provided overflight and refueling support[. Djibouti--where America has a base--and Saudi Arabia also helped.]" America convinced local factions to stand down for the operation. Good. American and other foreign Western citizens should be making their way to exits as best they can. Are those aircraft I noted gathering going to play a role in flying them out?
Earth Day is stupid. Other than Karl Marx, the green murderer who founded it is the only dead white male the left worships./NOTHING FOLLOWS/
