Would South Korea fight China over Taiwan? How long could South Korea pretend nothing is happening?
This author thinks South Korea would largely sit out a war between China and the American coalition over the fate of Taiwan:
In no case would South Korea offer zero support to Taiwan in the event of war. The question is at what point along the spectrum of possible assistance Seoul would position itself. There is good reason to think South Korea would limit its support to actions near the low end of the spectrum – strong diplomatic statements, symbolic economic sanctions, and behind-the-lines re-supply of U.S. forces returning from battle – in the hopes of avoiding a direct confrontation with China.
The author makes an excellent point.
Notwithstanding South Korea's gradual shift of military south--toward China at sea and away from North Korea's land threat--South Korea still faces a North Korean threat. Seoul has a quarter of South Korea's population sitting on the DMZ in range of North Korean artillery; plus North Korea's nuclear drive will threaten worse and shield North Korean aggression.
The author believes China will rub South Korea's nose in its alliance with America:
An attempt by China to invade Taiwan would probably include missile strikes against bases in South Korea, especially the U.S. Air Force base in Osan. Beijing would presumably leave ROK Navy bases alone unless South Korean warships appeared to be moving to attack Chinese forces.As that author notes regarding South Korean support for America, South Korea needs to worry about losing economic ties with China. And has to worry that China may successfully fling North Korea's military at Seoul to divert South Korea away from Taiwan to face bigger worries at the DMZ.
Even a victory in a sideshow war with North Korea could devastate South Korea. South Korea may calculate it is safer to avert their eyes even if China strikes South Korean targets on its territory prior to attacking Taiwan.
I think South Korean help at the low end would probably be enough to defeat China as long as Japan fights alongside America and Taiwan. So America could live with this, given the North Korea threat. At least initially, assuming things don't go really bad.
Of course, South Korea has to consider whether China would think a low-end South Korean array of help to America is too much. Even if China initially agrees that low-end South Koran support isn't enough to justify striking South Korea, if China is losing or not winning quickly enough (and yes, we need to accurately define what a Chinese "victory"against Taiwan means), that judgment could change. China may figure that it got away with some initial strikes on South Korean soil, so another round of expanded strikes could get South Korea to end even low-level help.
Heck, with South Korea's hard worry about North Korean nukes, could China offer South Korea credible guarantees to firmly deal with and stop North Korea's nuclear threat?
Reaffirming America's extended nuclear deterrent certainly helps forestall that motivation.
On either path, South Korea has to consider whether America will reduce its support to South Korea to deter North Korea--and China. Heck, America might have to reduce that support just to focus on defending Taiwan from China.
Where does this lead if South Korea isn't allowed by China to be sort of pregnant as an American ally? Would South Korea jump in fully on America's side? Or would South Korea order American forces to leave South Korea to appease China?
The article's author puts it well:
Allies of great powers often have two opposite fears. One is being abandoned by the great power and left alone to face a threatening adversary. The other is being dragged by the great power into an unwanted war. The possibility of a Taiwan Strait war raises both of these dangers for Seoul.
Sucks to have allies. Sucks not to have them. South Korea needs to end the Taiwan issue to get out from between these problems. Does that mean South Korea has to engineer Taiwan's submission to China or China's internal collapse before a war over Taiwan can break out?
Interesting times in Northeast Asia.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
