Did American intelligence blow it with the Ukraine war document? Or did American intelligence plant something designed to appeal to people who assume American intelligence is that bad? All to get Russia to accept their good luck as something to be expected. Surely, that's what is happening. right?
Well, as Ukraine fights for its life against Russia, we have a new issue to focus on as the stalemate continues.
I understand allies not being happy with America spying on them. But
when we are committed to defending allies from common enemies, we have
an interest in making sure that allies aren't trying to leverage us into
fighting their war. So knowing what they want to do and what they are
capable of doing is important. That's just the reality. So sorry. But not sorry. And yeah, I assume allies who rely on America for their survival spy on America to find out if they can count on that alliance.
Either the U.S. intelligence leak is genuine and really bad. Or America is really committed to selling this as a really bad intelligence leak rather than the disinformation it really is. I'd expected the former but had hopes for the latter. Honestly, the intel "gems" reported are just things you'd get--at least in a general way--with background knowledge and paying attention to the news.
If the Russians believe the information is genuine, a lot of Russians are going to die under torture:
A trove of Pentagon documents that were leaked online show just how deeply the United States has penetrated Russian security and intelligence services, allowing military officials to warn Ukraine about planned attacks amid the Kremlin’s invasion.
And Ukrainians will find their war effort undermined:
The leak has the potential to do real damage to Ukraine’s war effort by exposing which Russian agencies the United States knows the most about, giving Moscow a potential opportunity to cut off the sources of information. Current and former officials say it is too soon to know the extent of the damage, but if Russia is able to determine how the United States collects its information and cuts off that flow, it may have an effect on the battlefield in Ukraine.
And we'll get fewer assets in the future. Or cooperation with allies. Even if this is an American disinformation operation.
On the bright side, we should be able to find out about people disappearing from Russian intelligence agencies. That would be an indication that the Russians believe the disinformation/leak. That provides information to the West regardless of whether the American information is "leaked" or disinformation.
Unless the Russians are ruthless enough to kill their own to sell their false belief that they believe the leak.
My head is spinning.
I want to believe the leak was key American disinformation bulked up with real information to disguise the disinformation that aids the Ukrainian counteroffensive. But I can't rule out that we effed up massively. Best-case scenario if we effed up is that a lot more loyal Russians will die under torture in a too-broad sweep by Russian secret police.
But let's not make the mistake of thinking Russian intelligence is brilliant while ours is keystone cops-level stepping-on-rakes quality. You do remember the so-called brilliant Facebook memes the Russians came up with that wouldn't have persuaded anybody to vote for Trump who didn't already think Hillary! was a Devil-worshipping, Soros sex slave, with a personal body count higher than a fringe al Qaeda group, right?
A lot of the detail here is familiar. There's just a lot more of it, and it's all in one place.
Again, nothing the news has reported has been shocking. Yet many are saying these are shocking revelations that prove Ukraine isn't winning. But you've certainly read me conclude that Ukraine can't be doing as well as I hoped given the failure to launch a decisive counteroffensive over the last six months. Clearly, Ukraine did not have the strategic reserve I assumed they maintained.
Maybe this really is American disinformation that relies on the poor reputation of our intelligence security. I've certainly seen other high-profile leaks in the past that seemed to state the obvious but which were treated by the media as new information (to them) that must be from secret files.
I mean, the documents are folded-up paper material. So it wasn't hacked.
And the FBI has arrested an Airman First Class from the Massachusetts Air National Guard over this? Are you effing kidding me? Majors serve coffee to the flag officers who sit in a SCIF reading that information. But an E-3 moron walked off with top secrets?
Surely that's inconceivable, right?
But America "admits" the documents are real. Yet if this is disinformation, that's what you'd expect us to say. But if the Russians know we'd say that to convince the Russians the information is real when it is actually fake, wouldn't we say the documents are real to convince the Russians the information is fake?
And can I rule out that the CIA stole the information from the DOD to spread disinformation to the Russians while bolstering that ploy with obvious DOD concern over stolen documents, some or even most of which are real.
Easy, stomach.
And this is the sort of thing that makes me think this information is an American intelligence operation:
On Wednesday, with the U.S. government apparently still unaware, a Russian propaganda account on Telegram posted a crudely doctored version of one of the documents, alongside a few unedited ones.
The documents had been posted since January. But real notice didn't happen until April.
Surely we can't be that awful to not even detect the loss just sitting there in the open. Right? Surely we were just patient, putting out something designed to attract Russians, waiting for the Russians to find it without tipping our hand by yelling "Yoo hoo! Russkies! Look at this!"
Now the Russians have "intel" they can confirm, bolstered by DOD scrambling to shut off the leak. Which validates the fake information about Ukrainian weaknesses, right?
That would play right into the vanity of the FSB and our reputation for effed up counter-intelligence, right?
Right? Surely we didn't screw the intel pooch this badly (tip to Instapundit)! Right?
God, now my stomach is spinning, too. I hope the Russians are just as confused. That at least might delay and confuse their reaction to Ukraine's counteroffensive.
And while we take this detour, the bloody but mostly stalemated war goes on. Something potentially significant will presumably happen when the mud dries.
UPDATE (Monday): The counteroffensive is coming:
A Ukrainian counter-offensive is due in the coming days or weeks. Almost no one knows precisely where or when it will come. Only five officials have all the details, noted Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine’s security chief, on April 6th. But Russian troops are braced. On April 12th British defence intelligence said that Russia had finished building three layers of defensive lines along 120km (75 miles) of the front line in Zaporizhia province in anticipation of a Ukrainian assault towards Melitopol (see satellite imagery, which depicts dragon’s teeth anti-tank obstacles stretching south-east along the P37 highway from Shyroke). Conquering Melitopol would help Ukraine sever Russia’s land bridge between the occupied regions of Donbas and Crimea.
Ukraine’s offensive force consists of at least a dozen brigades (some sources say up to 18), nine of which have been armed and supplied by Western allies[.]
I'll add that I assume any Ukrainian units already holding the front where the counteroffensive takes place will assist the offensive force.
While Melitopol has been my primary focus, do the Russian defenses mean the counteroffensive must take place elsewhere? It depends on how hard and well the Russian troops can fight on the defensive.
And are the defenses built any good? Or has corruption resulted in poorly constructed and sited fortifications and obstacles?
Could Ukrainian forces hold the Russians in place in Zaporizhia while Ukrainian forces cross the Dnieper River in Kherson? The Russians might have too few troops to send west. And if they do react, the Zaporizhia forces could pounce.
I ask because it has seemed to me that Ukraine could use airmobile forces to support a river crossing if it has sufficient air defenses. I'd assumed this would be a secondary axis to support the main Zaporozhia axis of advance. But maybe it has to be reversed.
Although I may overestimate Ukraine's ability to bridge the river and protect the bridges from air attack.
UPDATE (Monday): The Russian airborne forces (VDV) seem to be taking over the offensive role from Wagner. They must be heavily reinforced given how light they are to take on that role. Also, I doubt they've restored their relative quality that existed prior to the invasion.
UPDATE (Monday): On the other hand, Putin seems to have opened the arms spigot to Wagner again.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Putin and Zelensky both visited the combat zones. It sure feels like something is brewing, eh?
UPDATE (Wednesday): These revelations from the Discord leak seem to benefit America, don't they? (With the exception of the Russia-British Black Sea incident--which Britain denies is accurate.) Or they are known if you pay attention. Is it just me?
UPDATE (Thursday): Another useful Discord leak:
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has told NATO officials privately that Canada will never meet the military alliance’s defense-spending target, according to a leaked secret Pentagon assessment obtained by The Washington Post.
Seriously, has anything leaked harmed America?
UPDATE (Saturday): Hmmm:
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast as of April 20.
Interesting, if true.
NOTE: ISW coverage of the war continues here.
