The People's Liberation Army that was raised from Chinese peasantry has modern offshoots like the PLA Navy and PLA Air Force that have taken the spotlight away from the traditional army component. Is Russia's invasion of Ukraine teaching China that it was a mistake to demote the army too much?
Some Chinese experts have said that Russia’s difficulties marshaling enough infantry troops suggest that China needs to keep its ground forces strong and large, even while it expands those of sea and air. Russia’s experience showed that “a great power must maintain ground forces of a reasonable scale, otherwise it will lose its advantage on the battlefield,” Wu Dahui, a former military researcher now at Tsinghua University in Beijing, wrote this year.
Yeah, I've noticed that.
When I wrote about planning for using the U.S. Army around China's periphery (with a more specific suggestion here), I justified that capability and planning because I did not want to grant China the security of knowing it only had to prepare to fight America's other services.
But I also justified it by noting that with all the American experience in ground warfare that contrary to what one think based on the history of the PLA in bloody ground combat, America's advantage over China might actually be strongest in ground warfare. Large scale combat operations might be the decisive method of inflicting defeat on China should war break out.
By putting China on the horns of a strategic dilemma with a renewed ground threat, I also figured that China might dissipate its military power enough to be vulnerable at sea and in the air.
Is China going to do that to itself without America building a capability to fight alongside allies on the Asian mainland around China's periphery because of Russia's failure in Ukraine?
And if China reinvigorates its ground forces at the expense of naval and air power, will the Chinese focus inland instead of out to sea to follow its strengths?
I ask that because if they get securely ashore on Taiwan, the current Chinese ground forces are certainly enough to defeat Taiwan's army.
But there's also the elephant in the century of humiliation room, of course.
That would quite honestly be hilarious blowback from Putin's decision to invade Ukraine.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
