The Biden administration is maneuvering to pretend it has forcefully compelled Iran to back down from regional mayhem and agree to a nuclear deal that we will insist keeps Iran from going nuclear. In reality it will be worse than the original.
All the talk of America pursuing a new nuclear deal with Iran only gives me confidence that Iran doesn't already have nukes:
An Iranian nuclear test might be the sign than Iran already has a nuclear missile force.
I've worried that much of Iran's nuclear infrastructure is long-term in nature and not the driving force of getting a nuclear weapon. I've worried Iran subcontracted nuclear weapons work to North Korea, safely out of range of Israel and sort of under China's protection[.] ...
But we keep watching the nuclear enrichment status. Or now, anticipating a nuclear test as if that's the signal we should seriously begin to worry rather than the signal it is too late.
But I believe there is a strong chance that the appearance of American resolve to block Iran is merely insincere posturing before surrendering to Iran's nuclear dreams:
About a month ago, the U.S. and Iran were reportedly close to an informal understanding that would reduce their tensions over the latter’s nuclear program. A month later, progress on an "understanding" seems limited. A prisoner exchange deal is stuck; there have been no new talks. Relations between Washington and Tehran have, if anything, gotten more tense in recent weeks.
Since then, America agreed to pay a huge ransom to get Iran to release some Americans it holds. So that might just be a matter of the administration paying whatever it takes to clear the deck for a deal.
And I suspect America is accepting Iranian escalations in the Middle East in order to allow Iran to give us "concessions" that didn't need to be made until recently (back to that article):
If Iran agreed to ramp down its enrichment of uranium, hand over several U.S. citizens it holds prisoner, pull back its support for Russia, and generally avoid taking action against U.S. forces positioned throughout the Middle East, the U.S. would release several billion dollars in Iran’s money currently frozen in bank accounts in Iraq and South Korea.
The article's claim that these concessions would be matched by a threat of American military action is absurd. Nobody believes that threat is credible, least of all the Iranians. Indeed, I suspect this little drama in the Gulf is a U.S.-Iran ploy to engineer an Iranian retreat to let America claim it compelled Iran to agree to a new nuclear agreement:
In a message of defiance and apparent preparedness for escalation, Iran warned on Monday that it could capture American vessels after the Pentagon beefed up its presence in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.
If Iran did think the threat of American military action is credible Iran would already be too afraid of America to hold our citizens, back Russia, and take action against American ships or forces in the Middle East.
In addition, I assume any new deal will be more of a wink and a nod than the first deal was, in order to avoid submitting the agreement as a treaty for Senate approval. Or any type of Congressional input. Can't have any scrutiny on the details, right?
Remember, Iran Nuclear Deal 2.0 will have the same basic foundation as the original:
The Iranians will pretend not to have a nuclear weapons program; and we will pretend to believe them.
Because these Democrats in power love mullah-run Iran. God help us all.
Iran has already gotten the time granted by the original 2015 deal. Iran might not have to pretend much longer before it has nuclear weapons.
But we may be coming back full circle to my initial worries (via Instapundit):
The Islamic Republic of Iran is close to possibly testing a nuclear weapons device and has sought to obtain illicit technology for its active atomic weapons program, according to a series of shocking European intelligence reports released in 2023.
It occurs to me that Iran may not even care what the terms of a nuclear deal are because Iran is very close to having a nuclear deterrent. Hell, the Biden administration might actually have negotiated a good deal--but for the fact that any deal is what Iran needs for a final sprint to finally get nuclear weapons.
If Iran tests a nuke, I assume Iran already has nuclear weapons based on that design.
Have a super sparkly day.
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
