Macron has stepped forward as Europe's leading power in resisting Russia in Ukraine by asserting that he has not ruled out sending troops to Ukraine to help sustain Ukraine's military effort. Macron needs Europeans to follow France somewhere and Ukraine is the destination of the moment.
Macron is shifting strategy to put France in charge of the European Union:
Mr Macron, who has a fondness for disruptive grandstanding, is engaged in a power struggle with the more cautious Mr Scholz that is throwing a spanner in the Franco-German “engine” of European policymaking.
At the heart of the battle is the French president’s sudden transformation from Ukraine dove to hawk.
You may recall Macron's outreach to Russia. Even as Russia mobilized to invade Ukraine.
The "engine" for stripping off the prefix from the proto-imperial EU consisted of France exploiting German fears of learning to like a whiff of gunpowder to be the safe "guardian" to harness Germany as a compliant lever to put France in charge of an imperial EU. As the initial article observes:
Paris sees this as German trespassing on its turf. Berlin was breaking the gentleman’s agreement that is the bedrock of the Franco-German engine, one source close to Mr Macron said.
Simply put, Berlin takes the economic leadership in Europe, while Paris takes the strategic leadership. “The frontiers are now blurred and there are attempts to intrude into each other’s domain,” said the source.
But Germany is reacting to Russia's invasion of Ukraine by haltingly but clearly throwing off their post-Cold War reluctance to wield military and political power across Europe. Indeed, Germany has its champion inside the EU to expand German influence by leaning forward against Russia.
Macron's comment on sending troops to Ukraine perhaps shakes Germany's new defense resolve (back to the first article):
It was a deeply unhelpful comment for an under-pressure leader of a country with a horror of militarism, Berlin sources said.
Macron doesn't really care about his specific policies in his Game of Thrones. He cares that other European states support France in its leadership role. As that initial article interprets Macron:
“He has a taste for transgression,” said a French source close to the president. “There’s a price to pay for spelling out his vision, but he always hopes that the others will end up following him and that history will end up proving him right.”
And right now Macron thinks standing up to Russia in Ukraine is the best way to push France to the front of the parade. And for the moment, Macron is hyping the bizarre panic over Trump for his own ends (back to the initial article):
Mr Macron, an ardently Europhile centrist, is devoted to the concept of building the EU’s “strategic autonomy” to ensure the bloc can punch its geopolitical weight independently of the US.
Hogwash. It is enough for the EU to reduce America's punch in Europe. A European punch is irrelevant.
Don't be surprised if Macron's "vision" shifts again if nobody marches behind Macron. There are many paths to crowning himself emperor of the EU.
UPDATE: Shifting his vision in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... :
Macron’s game plan ahead of the EU election for tackling the National Rally’s unrelenting rise was to dramatize the fight against the far-right party, emphasizing the clash of ideologies and the Russian threat, according to several French officials. The twin aim was to beat abstention and mobilize Macron’s own voters, and also dissuade voters from turning to rival pro-European candidates such as the Socialist Raphaël Glucksmann and the ecologists.
But several weeks into the campaign, the strategy has failed to deliver, according to recent polls, and alarm bells are starting to ring.
Who knows what Macron will fervently believe in next? I mean, other than his own political ambitions.
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
