The Russian people have spoken. They are thankful to Putin for sending their men to die in Ukraine. Putin will honor their wishes by sending many more young Russian men to early deaths in Ukraine. And to further highlight his brilliance, Putin reminds his subjects that he needs early use of nuclear weapons to protect Russia from invasion and destruction. But God help us, we might enable a Russian conventional victory.
Fresh off of his glorious victory at Avdiivka, Putin collects his reward of reelection from a grateful population:
A preliminary statement from Russia’s Central Election Commission said Putin received about 87 percent of the votes, deeming him the winner of the election, according to multiple media outlets. The commission also reportedly said voter turnout was about 75 percent nationwide.
It is frustrating that America is risking handing Russia a victory in Ukraine:
Ukrainian shortages of ammunition and other war materiel resulting from delays in the provision of US military assistance may be making the current Ukrainian front line more fragile than the relatively slow Russian advances in various sectors would indicate.
And Russia has formed reserve forces it could send to the front to exploit the possible fragility of Ukraine's front line forces.
You have to give the Russian leaders credit, no matter what they don't get all confused about their objective:
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev posted a detailed call for the total elimination of the Ukrainian state and its absorption into the Russian Federation under what he euphemistically called a “peace formula.”
God help us, but Westerners try to split the difference with Russia's extreme position to get "peace".
Still, I'm not sure who does Putin's polling and messaging work. Did they think this through?
President Vladimir Putin, speaking two days before the start of an election he is expected to easily win, has issued his latest of many warnings that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty is threatened, saying he hopes Washington will not do anything to trigger such a conflict.
I mean, Putin thinks that even he can't throw enough Russian bodies in the path of an invader to stop them without using nukes? So explain to me again the point of a territorial buffer if Russia's conventional military can't make use of it?
Oh, never mind. Putin is on a bare-chested, tiger-riding roll!
Still, it's good to know. Especially if Putin announces a post-election new mobilization of fresh bodies to send to the front. Maybe Russians will wonder what the point of their death is when Russia has nukes.
The way Putin flashes and waves around his nukes, I'd start to wonder if any of them work.
Well, Putin will always have the bodies. Right? Nobody in Russia would ever be paranoid enough to see Putin's record as proof Putin is deliberately trying to destroy Russia! Right?
UPDATE (Monday): Not quite a mirror image:
Ukrainian forces facing a lack of munitions and manpower are digging in to resist Russian attack, mirroring the invaders' strategy and showing Kyiv expects a drawn-out war.
The Russians had lots of artillery ammunition to pound the Ukrainian attackers last year. Ukraine is hoping fortifications will make up for lack of artillery ammunition.
UPDATE (Monday): Ukraine expands its effort to escape Russia's ground offensive clench by expanding strategic warfare against Russia:
The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU), Special Forces (SOF), and Unmanned Systems Forces reportedly conducted a successful drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai on the night of March 16 to 17.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Yeah:
Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to use claimed record levels of voter turnout and support for his presidential candidacy to set informational conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine.
Putin will act as if Russians are willing to suffer and die at whatever level Putin orders. Will Russians line up to die and suffer?
UPDATE (Thursday): I have no doubt that Putin would like this to be true:
Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited.
But at some level I suspect this is part of the bluff that Russia is close to defeating Ukraine.
And while America's pause in aiding Ukraine is making this a race Putin could win, I suspect Russian talk of invading NATO soon is part of an information operation designed to demoralize the West into thinking Russia's victory over Ukraine is so inevitable that Putin is already preparing his next war.
I think we can stop Russia in Ukraine. [I added this exact same update in "Legend in His Own Mind"]
UPDATE (Friday): Russian conscripts should get their wills updated:
Russia is in a "state of war," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Friday, in a marked escalation in the official language used to describe Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Because they're going to be sent to die in Ukraine. Because Putin thinks their votes for him mean they're cool with that. I assume this foreshadows a change in Russian law.
UPDATE (Saturday): The Russians walked back the legal significance of the word choice. For now, anyway.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
