Russia's need for nukes to defend its territorial integrity is even higher as its ground forces continue to get ground down trying to conquer Ukraine. Moscow does not want China to be tempted.
FT reported that the documents show that Russia has war-gamed avenues for employing tactical weapons and alleged that the files show that Russia has a lower threshold for using nuclear weapons “if the desired result can’t be achieved through conventional means. FT stated that the criteria for a nuclear response vary between “an enemy incursion on Russian territory” to more specific parameters, such as “the destruction of 20 percent of Russia’s strategic ballistic missile submarines.” than Russian officials have ever publicly admitted.
This is no surprise. Russia's military is too weak to defend its entire border.
Indeed, after this was scheduled for posting but prior to posting, I see this new detail about the FT news:
The classified papers, dating from 2008 to 2014, show a readiness to deploy nuclear arms at a threshold significantly lower than previously disclosed by Russia, alarming experts and international observers, the Financial Times reported.
The leaked materials indicate that Russia's eastern military district has actively prepared for various scenarios involving a Chinese attack, underscoring the pivotal role Russia's nuclear arsenal plays in its defense strategy. Such preparations suggest a complex relationship with China, juxtaposing public alliances with private contingencies for conflict.
Complex? Indeed. They are friends with temporary benefits.
And tied down in Ukraine to build a needless buffer where almost all of its ground power is being bled dry, nukes are Russia's only hope to hold the Far East territory Russia took from China in the 19th century.
Putin sure does like to wave his nukes around:
Putin also emphasized that Russia possesses weapons that can strike Western countries and claimed that Western escalation is threatening a possible nuclear conflict that could destroy civilization. Putin and Russian officials frequently invoke nuclear threats to instill fear in Western audiences and weaken Western support for Ukraine.
But as much as Russia needs nukes to compensate for small ground forces now being ground up, are the nuclear weapons real? I only ask because this kind of nuclear threat is nothing new and doesn't even require actual possession of working nukes.
Sometimes I wonder if we know Russia's nukes are mostly inert but go along so China won't pounce on Russia and gain its territory and resources to use against us.
I guess I'm assuming this FT "scoop" is a Russian information operation to nudge China to look elsewhere to purge the memories of the Century of Humiliation. Like out to sea where America is, ideally--from Moscow's perspective.
But with Chinese military problems stinking up the PLA's new-car smell, perhaps China might announce its arrival on the world stage with an easier signal event than tangling with America and its allies.
UPDATE: I've recently noted that Putin's war is causing friction in the relationship.
UPDATE: Russia's need for working nukes is clear when you try to add up the declining numbers of recruits available for defending Russia's lengthy border. And it gets worse when Russia concentrates them on a needless front in Ukraine where they die in large numbers with lots of equipment destroyed or worn out.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
