Putin counts on the West helping Ukraine too little to deny Putin a victory over Ukraine. It may be a high stakes game with Putin's life on the line.
Russia is preparing to attack again this spring and summer to exploit the halt in American military aid to Ukraine. But Russia is looking beyond Ukraine. If this is true, Russia has serious strategic problems:
[Estonia thinks] Russia is currently attempting to restructure and expand in anticipation of a possible war with NATO in the next 10 years, and other Western intelligence agencies have previously made similar assessments. ISW assesses that the ongoing recreation of the Leningrad and Moscow military districts (LMD and MMD) and efforts to create at least a dozen new formations are likely preparations for a potential future large-scale conventional war against NATO.
The problem is that Russia created tensions with NATO that prior to Putin's strategery, was busy disarming.
The problem is that I think Putin was counting on being able to taunt NATO without paying a price to conceal Russian appeasement of China until Russia could openly face China's threats.
The problem is that the last dash to that policy shift has died in Ukraine rather than providing the short and glorious victory that would allow Russia to pivot to Asia.
And while Putin puffs up his chest, beats it, and flings poo at NATO (as I noted in earlier posts), Putin is bluffing:
Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited.
I suspect this is part of the bluff that Russia is close to defeating Ukraine. And
while America's pause in aiding Ukraine is making this a race Putin
could win, I'd bet Russian talk of invading NATO soon is part of an
information operation designed to demoralize the West into thinking
Russia's victory over Ukraine is so inevitable that Putin is already
preparing his next war. Maybe that gets NATO to build up their stockpiles rather than send weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
The bigger problem for Putin is that with Russia's ground forces committed to fighting in Europe--and bleeding out and burning up all over Ukraine--Putin had to bring up the weapon of last resort--nukes--to remind China that Russia has options if China pounces on a weakened and distracted Russia.
The problem with that is who knows if Russia's nukes work any better than the rest of their military?
Putin has given Russia the options of preparing to fight a two-front war; or continue its pointless alienation of NATO by deepening and extending Russia's vassal status in China's orbit to avoid a two-front war. For as long as China allows that to go on.
Just how deeply will China make Russia bow down to keep China's territorial claims dormant?
Bravo.
The problem for Putin is that Russians might start noticing how badly Putin has effed up Russia's national defense by invading Ukraine. And wonder if it is bad luck or a plot to destroy Russia. Sure, it's fun to threaten to hang the Estonian president (back to the original ISW link):
Medvedev threatened Rinkēvičs’ life in a post on March 15 and claimed that Russia will hang Rinkēvičs alongside the current “Nazi” Ukrainian government for “wish[ing] for the death of Russia.”
Just who is actually killing Russia these days? And who will build the gallows?
The costs of the Ukraine War have been a lot higher for Russia than expected in terms of weapons and men lost as well as the continuing damage from sanctions. Vladimir Putin is finding himself confronted by a larger number of Russians hostile to the war efforts. This now includes many wealthy Russians and those that run many of the major industries. These men and women see more clearly how much the war is costing Russia and their chatter is increasingly critical of President Putin.
I mean, providing Putin and his loyal cronies some rough justice may be the only way Russia has to escape a generation of Western punishment for destroying the long peace in Europe. And the only way for Russia to truly pivot to Asia to resist a China that may see an isolated and weakened Russia as a target without limits rather than a partner.
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
UPDATE (Wednesday): ISW seems to agree with me:
The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation[.]
And to put the cherry on the cake of Putin's bloody stupidity, ISW notes this point that is so obvious that I never consciously made the connection:
The Kremlin has had continuous opportunities to choose peace, including a choice not to invade Ukraine – a country that Putin considered to be so militarily unthreatening that Putin assessed he could conquer it in a matter of days.
Maybe Russians will make that connection, eh? And look for lamp posts.
UPDATE (Sunday): Can't argue with the man:
The Washington Post published excerpts of an interview with Zelensky on March 29 in which Zelensky stated that Ukraine will not be able to defend its territory without American support, as Ukraine currently relies on air defense systems and missiles, electronic warfare jammers, and 155mm artillery shells from the United States.
It seems like American aid could be resumed after Congress votes in April. I hope our military has the first shipments locked and loaded, ready to push them into Ukraine as soon as legislation is signed.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
