Putin demands more from the war he started as a special military operation. More results. And more blood.
I've long said that a "peace" in the war would just be an opportunity for Russia to reload. The Russians don't want Ukraine to take the same opportunity in Russia's version of "peace":
Reported details of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations that occurred in Istanbul in April 2022 indicate that Russia has consistently envisioned a settlement for its illegal invasion of Ukraine wherein Ukraine would be unable to defend itself from a future Russian attack – an objective Russia continues to pursue under calls for Ukraine’s “demilitarization.”
I guess Russia isn't as confident in its larger population and economy as Western observers can be when they urge "peace" in Ukraine.
Despite its heavy losses, Russia now wants more in its false peace (back to the initial ISW report):
Russian authorities suggested that the Kremlin has likely adopted a more extensive set of goals regarding Ukraine over the course of Russia's war against Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov responded to the leaked April 2022 draft agreement between Russia and Ukraine, claiming that the draft agreement is “no longer relevant” and that “conditions have changed.”
Would Putin take the opportunity of taking all of Luhansk province to declare victory and hope Ukraine agrees to end the war? It's possible. But sometimes unexpectedly high casualties require more than a small gain to justify the losses. Until the losses get even higher and people will accept any defeat to stop the losses. Does that escalation logic apply to Putin's Russia?
That's quite the treadmill Putin has gotten on. Higher losses pushed Putin to demand more to justify the casualties. Which requires even more casualties. Lather, rinse, repeat, ...
... Revolt? Something more substantial and successful than the Hot Dog Revolt?
Ukraine's resistance is pushing Russia's losses so high that at some point nothing can possibly be worth it to the Russian people, its military, or just its elites who surround and sustain Putin.
Let's make the cost too high for somebody in Russia to accept. When Russia invaded I wanted Russian body bags flowing back to Russia. As I've long urged.
Oh, are my words too crude for a bloody war that Putin started? This is the reality that Putin created. Ef him. And if Russians are willing to sacrifice their sons on the altar of Putin's glory to get the honorific "the Great" in Russian history books, so be it. I have a limit measured by the volume of body bags of Putin's victims for how long I can feel sorry for the Russian people.
We can reopen that issue when Russia's army turns around and leaves Ukraine.
Remember that arming Ukraine was once a Trump idea and the media obscured why that was needed. Conservatives shouldn't go wobbly on this issue now.
UPDATE (Monday): For a leader who is confident that time is on Russia's side, Putin doesn't act like it:
The Kremlin on Monday said that a call by Pope Francis for talks to end the Ukraine war was quite understandable and that Russia was ready to sit down, but that Kyiv had ruled out talks due to its mistaken view that the West could defeat Russia.
UPDATE (Tuesday): This does not allow Russia to build up a decisive reserve force:
ISW continues to assess that the Russian military command’s use of ongoing force structure changes to rush newly created and understrength formations into combat in Ukraine will likely constrain the immediate efficacy of these units on the battlefield but is enough to maintain the current pace of operations.
On the other hand, rushing them into combat doesn't grant Ukraine time to prepare, as Ukraine provided Russia between Russia's autumn 2022 nadir and the summer 2023 counteroffensive.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
