But how much success has Ukraine had? "Russia has been seeking countries where they can recruit local men to be mercenaries but has had little or no success." Russia did recruit 15,000 non-Gurkha Nepalese. That's 15,000 Russians who won't die charging the guns.
Huh: "The Greek government on Monday approved the country's participation in a European Union naval mission in the Red Sea to protect merchant ships from attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia[.]" Expect new EU authority and many EU meetings--but little protection of merchant ships.
Well that seems gruesomely symbolic of the Air Force's focus on pronouns over bombs on target: "An active-duty member of the US Air Force set himself on fire outside the Israeli Embassy in Washington, DC, on Sunday, according to the Air Force and local authorities."
Zelensky said Ukraine has suffered 31,000 KIA. Perhaps that's true. Then add in those who died from their wounds later, accidents, and disease?
This seems like part of the strategy genre of "I'd like to support X--but it's too late now, darn the luck." Manufacture and send the ammo, and let Ukraine worry about whether it is enough.
Talk of the failure of sanctions ignores that we haven't really cut Russia off from the West even on paper: "The United States and the European Union are piling new sanctions on Russia on the eve of the second anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine and in retaliation for the death of [Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny]"
Own-goal: "U.S. defense officials are concerned the military may lose access to crucial staging ground in the Pacific region — and potentially cede it to China — because of a lapse in funding held up in Congress." A sense of urgency, please.
Was a bargain deal the price of voting to let Sweden in NATO? "Hungary has ordered four Saab JAS 39 Gripen C/D multirole fighter jets in an undisclosed deal, to sit alongside an existing fleet of 14 aircraft, the manufacturer announced today."
I noted Italy's rearmament a while back: "Italy’s parliament has approved the planned acquisition of two new FREMM frigates with updated electronics and 132 combat-version Leopard tanks as well as 140 other tank versions."
Interesting: "[The V-22] Osprey is a modern marvel in terms of performance and capability, and its operational safety record is on a par with the most widely used conventional rotorcraft flying in the Department of Defense today."
Huh: "Denmark has dropped its investigation into the explosions in 2022 on the Nord Stream pipelines carrying Russian gas to Germany, police said on Monday, becoming the second nation to do so after Sweden closed its own inquiry."
Yeah, appliances have been needlessly jazzed up with computers and Internet connections. Do the tail fins really provide more than status and headaches? I'm not yet too old to figure these things out to set them up. How long before I must rely on my children for this? Tip to Instapundit.
The great sorting continues. Tip to Instapundit.
China's subliminal war against the Philippines at Scarborough Shoal continues.
The Russian people are accepting the burden of invading Ukraine--until they don't: "Russia's economy appears resilient after more than two years of war with Ukraine — but even the Russian people themselves may be getting impatient with the situation, an expert says."
The Marines are being reduced to something between coast artillery and naval infantry. The Marine Corps wants critics to shut up and salute. But the debate over organizing for global roles is hardly over. I have concerns.
Yet I read we'd see preparations in time to sink them all and let Sun Tsu sort them out: "China's military is perilously close to being able to launch a surprise offensive against Taiwan, the commander of the U.S. Pacific fleet has warned." If we react to preparations but China doesn't invade we'll be blamed for a crisis.
Build actual low-cost basic warships to get numbers to afford losses in a war over sea control. I keep urging the Navy to pick a number and follow the logic. So far the Navy is willing to pick a number but seemingly wants funding to build their fleet of capital ships.
Could a "European" army "go it alone"? One, that's a question about a European Union army--not a random army in Europe. Two, the EU doesn't care about that. It cares about destroying NATO (and American influence) and having the authority to build a "European" army. Two sides of the same coin.
China is battling corruption in its military: "The only thing more frightening to the regime than protests in the streets would be a revolt within the military." The corruption and crackdown means China is less likely to start a war, he says. Unless even losing a war is the least bad option for the Chinese rulers, I say.
Is it just me or is it funny that the Army practices for extremely cold Arctic warfare even as the military says global warming is a major threat?
While I advocated evacuating Avdiivka to avoid a Russian encirclement of its troops, I do believe I said retreating doesn't end Russian attacks--it just invites them further west: "The latest setback for Kyiv’s soldiers was in the village of Lastochkyne, where they fell back to nearby villages[.]"
Ukraine lost its first Abrams tank. They aren't invulnerable. But Ukraine only got 30 so every tank is precious. Last week I said I wanted a "cope cage" on it so it wouldn't stand out. It also could have used that to avoid destruction, apparently.
Isn't a "sideways landing" a crash? That's quite the media spin on a literal spin.
Deep inside Lebanon: "The Israeli military says its air force on Monday struck targets of the militant Hezbollah group 'deep inside Lebanon,' where residents reported explosions near the northeastern city of Baalbek." That's where a hypothetical ground drive would end, I believe.
Ally: "Greece's frigate Hydra departed for the Red Sea on Monday to participate in a mission to protect merchant ships from attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia[.]"
Removing the Klamath River dams was supposed to bring Eco-Nirvana. The unintended consequences have been an eco-disaster. I assume nature will eventually recover after paying the price. Tip to Instapundit. We must end the tyranny of experts. They don't know what they don't know.
Rodents find eco-friendly insulation in European military equipment tasty. Tip to Instapundit. Also, forward the article to the Navy. But I worry more about senior leadership who have many substitutes for victory. Who am I kidding? They'll still look us in the eye and pretend they achieved victory.
Russia has lost two A-50s, but: "this Russian AWACs is still effective against Chinese and other foreign aircraft. Russia is saving its R-50Us for aircraft it can safely detect and track." With its shattered ground forces pinned fighting Ukraine, only air power stands in the way of needing nukes to defend the Far East.
Has Russian impressment of foreigners into combat units in Ukraine made it easier to keep Russians supporting--or at least not opposing--the war?
Basically, I think he's right: "French President Emmanuel Macron has said it is key for Europe's security to defeat Russia in Ukraine, amid urgent pleas for more weapons from Kyiv." But I suspect his true motivation is different.
The Marines are testing their landing ship medium concept for moving Marines around to support the Navy's anti-ship fight. They got rid of the pretension, at least. I had my own thoughts in Proceedings on what the ship should look like.
Russia reestablished the Leningrad and Moscow military districts to focus on NATO; while the Southern Military District gets responsibility for the war in Ukraine. And about that Eastern Military District.
Iran's proxies have scaled back attacks on Americans in Iraq and Syria after our air strikes. But "after" implies cause and effect. Did our attacks compel the restraint? Or did the administration send another love letter to Iran?
I didn't bother to vote in the Michigan primary. The outcome was never in doubt. If in doubt, I would have voted notwithstanding my former career-motivated aversion to voting in partisan primary elections.
The American and Japanese navies intend to shield Taiwan with BMD-capable warships. Who shields the shields from the PLA?
American and Japanese ground forces practice island defense: "Troops will practice recapturing an island during the Iron Fist 24, which is 'focused on island defense,' a spokesman from Japan’s Ground Staff Office said by phone Tuesday." Japan might lose the race, after all.
Yes, the EU is moving toward an "autocratic" EU. What part of "ever closer union" has been unclear?
No, the cause is Germany's embrace of green domestic energy: "Germany is experiencing an end to its title of an industrial superpower due to energy crises caused by declining relations with Moscow." Don't pretend Russia is a source of energy solutions rather than security problems.
You think you distrust and hate our news media enough. You do not.
The ideological tribe--unlike past racial or ethnic tribes--is wrecking cities without negative repercussions for those politicians doing the wrecking. Indeed, those politicians thrive amidst the ruins--the Curley Effect. Sadly not a Three Stooges reference. The great sorting accelerates. Tip to Instapundit.
Fear is the beginning of wisdom: "NATO countries closer to Russia spend more on defense because they are more aware of the threat." Well, sure. Note the size of aid to Ukraine from Europe. Yes, America has sent more military aid. But Europe sends more financial aid.
Peak China. When socialists try capitalism they can only go through the motions--for a while. That should be a lesson for us. Another lesson is that the combination of socialism and capitalism is pretty much fascism.
Worry: "In the last few centuries, China had endured periods when independent warlords ruling portions of a divided China, and the communist Chinese feared this might happen again." Indeed. Which is cause for us to worry.
Good: "At a repair base in Ukraine, mechanics patched together Western artillery guns using parts scavenged from the battered carcasses of some 20 damaged howitzers scattered outside." I noted the concept recently.
The Army is adjusting to fewer soldiers. It is emphasizing fires and air defense; moving brigade-level assets to divisions and corps; downgrading COIN to prepare for large-scale combat operations; and eliminating empty slots to diminish the "hollow" part of an undermanned Army.
We're from the government and we're here to help. Tip to Instapundit.
Preventing China from taking over Taiwan is very important to American security. Taiwan under China's control is both an asset for power projection and a demonstration of increased power projection capacity. It is so important to America that we'd have to deny its use as a Chinese asset even if Taiwan won't fight.
Hey! My dating pool is larger than I thought! But perhaps I share too much.
Iran pressured their proxies to halt attacks. The militias didn't want to halt: "Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have signaled that they will resume conducting attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East. " America strikes clearly didn't frighten the proxies. What led Iran to restrain the attacks? Fear or gifts?
Hints of sanity in Moscow? "Shoigu additionally highlighted Russia’s Central and Eastern Military Districts (CMD and EMD) to posture against supposed anti-Russian activity in Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific." There is a threat to the Far East and Central Asia. But it can't be named.
Hmmm: "Ukrainian forces have reportedly shot down two Russian Su-34s on February 27, the tenth downed Russian military aircraft within roughly as many days." This is different. Is NATO providing Ukraine with more targeting information to compensate for a lull in military equipment aid?
I've mentioned this before, but Obama got foreign intelligence agencies to spy on Trump before the 2016 election. Is it just me or do a lot of Democrats have incentive to portray Trump as a danger to "our democracy" to avoid prison time?
Was Iran trying to hijack or crash an Israeli airliner near the Red Sea?
Yin and yang: "The Third Taiwan Crisis in 1995-1996 exposed China to the strategic dominance of U.S. aircraft carriers, marking a turning point in Chinese military planning." Our carriers are a huge threat if unchallenged. If challenged, they are an opportunity for China.
The New York attorney general lived in a luxury glass house as she threw stones at Trump. Amazing. I'll be more amazed if James faces consequences. I can understand not liking Trump. But don't go all Moby Dick crazy over it.
This new JACKAL drone is capable of "engaging helicopters in flight". Why not--as I proposed in Army magazine--shoot down other drones?
Priorities: "India, now the country with largest population in the world, at over 1.4 billion people, is largely at peace and prospering while neighboring Pakistan, with a population of 243 million, continues struggling with the Islamic terror groups it created and supported for so long [and corruption]." Shocking.
Russia is setting the stage to destabilize Moldova via its territorial-void hand puppet Transnistria.
Yes, selective prosecution is not rule of law: "A judge in California threw out charges against two far-right political agitators, saying the federal government engaged in 'selective prosecution' by charging right-wing rioters but not the far-left agitators they fought against, and who did the exact same thing."
Understatement Alert: "Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Wednesday said the Chinese navy's presence in the South China Sea is 'worrisome' but will not deter his country from defending its maritime territory and protecting its fishermen."
So what are the actual casualty figures in the Winter War of 2022? I have no idea. I have no idea if Russia--or at least its top leadership--or Ukraine really know.
Re-use is better than scrapping: "Ukrainian ambassador and the head of an organization representing Ukrainians across Australia appealed for tanks, Taipan helicopters, money and a change in how Australia considers Ukrainian aid."
Oh: "European leaders should discuss using the profits from frozen Russian assets to boost Ukraine’s military in its defense efforts against Moscow, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday." EU--not European--leaders want power to seize assets more than they want to help Ukraine.
Obviously--and rightly under our Constitution--there are limits: "The Pentagon is mulling workarounds to arm Ukraine as the country faces severe ammunition and artillery shortages amid recent Russian advances." Biden needs to stop holding Ukraine hostage to keep our southern border open.
I've been urging America to help send body bags back to Russia since 2014. But this bothers me: "The Army has used approximately $500 million in funding for units in Europe and Africa to continue training Ukrainian forces to fight off invading Russian troops, service Secretary Christine Wormuth said."
Thank you Germany: "The recent downing of attack drones by a German ship in the Middle East likely marks the first known use of live weapons in combat by the country’s navy since it was rebuilt after World War II[.]" They've made great progress. Will Russians notice that Putin achieved this remarkable change?
Communist China never went away while it smiled to attract foreign investment and trade. In college, a test asked if Soviet reforms showed it was no longer a Stalinist Hellscape. I argued, "Just because peasants are allowed to own a couple chickens doesn't mean the terror apparatus is gone." Tip to Instapundit.
Progressives keep predicting Red State Nazi hate is descending on America. But it keeps landing in Blue-run entities: "Pro-Palestine protesters at the University of California, Berkeley, violently shut down an event that featured a former Israel Defence Forces member on Monday night." Tip to Instapundit.
Macron's comment about sending troops to Ukraine was a gift to Putin who replied with nuclear threats: "His big idea was a clumsy bid to grab a leadership role for France, and to a lesser extent the European Union, in the fight for Ukraine." It delays long-range weapons for Ukraine. But Macron has a bigger goal.
I doubt large numbers of jihadis could lay low in America for long without giving even our politicized intelligence agencies something to wonder about. Hamas didn't infiltrate Israel before October 7th, after all. But I agree that CONUS is no longer a sanctuary. But how big would such a terror attack need to be?
Via Instapundit, New York City opened the spigots for easily obtained welfare. Rich people not named Trump should have no worries they will be targeted by government using novel theories of criminality to loot them for cash, right? What part of "from each according to his ability" is unclear?
But intensely serious people of Science tell me we have but a few years to keep the planet from boiling! "Soldiers in Alaska recently tested the Army’s new rifle and automatic rifle in -35 F conditions as the weapons approach official fielding to the 101st Airborne Division later this year."
Good! "Several European nations have sourced hundreds of thousands of 122-millimeter artillery rounds from abroad to donate to Ukraine[.]" Two years into the Winter War of 2022, this buys time to get our act together on 155mm ammunition. Russia should have went right for Berlin--not Kiev.
Given the time period I grew up when Democrats loooved Soviet Russians and felt people like me were evil monsters, I feel like I'm in Bizarro World America as I look at polling about aiding Ukraine's resistance to Russia's invasion.
Huh: "Using biocement to build a runway or road in a remote location could shave months of prep time and tons of equipment off the traditional methods." Can it be used to patch damaged traditional concrete runways?
As active forces pivot to Asia and cope with a war in Europe, the National Guard has stepped up in the Middle East--where it is in the line of actual fire. The Guard became an operational rather than a strategic reserve.
The empire strikes back: "A recently announced defense deal between Somalia and Turkey to enhance the African nation’s naval capabilities is as much about Mogadishu’s sense of security as it is about Ankara’s ambition to project maritime power beyond its own shores, according to regional experts." Indeed.
The Iranians are expanding their regular and nutball navies.
Report to Congress on Navy-Marine Corps distributed operations concept.
How? By demanding they spend more on defense as they promised Obama? Also, NATO is still there! "President Donald Trump shocked the Europeans by upending the transatlantic balance on which the postwar Western world was built[.]" So Europe is "Trump-proofing" itself--i.e., doing what Trump wants.
The Chinese Communist Party does not believe diversity is a strength for China.
Is China's economy okay or not?
And now for something completely different (news from ISW):
Russia will remain a threat to America regardless of how the Winter War of 2022 ends. That's why it is important to keep Russia as far east as possible. If we have to "understand"--which too often means "accept"--Russia's claim that it must have buffer, why isn't our need valid?
Yes: "Ukrainian assessments state that Russian advances along the frontline could gain significant momentum by summer 2024 unless Ukraine’s partners increase provisions of artillery ammunition." Why is Biden helping Putin by clinging to his demand our southern border remain open to illegal immigration?
Russia will obviously use its growing influence in West Africa to cause distracting chaos. AFRICOM is an economy-of-force front. But it is still a front.
Maybe if Biden hadn't needlessly abused the Saudis for fighting the Houthi, they'd have suppressed this problem: "A ship attacked by Yemen's Houthi rebels has sunk in the Red Sea after days of taking on water, officials said Saturday[.]" I warned Iran would have a proxy "along the Red Sea oil shipping routes."
At some point the long-suffering and now dying Russians won't take it, right? "Thousands of mourners gathered in Moscow for the funeral of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny despite a heavy police presence and the threat of detention."
I wonder if Ukraine refrains from mobilization to avoid giving larger Russia an excuse to do the same: "By early 2024 Russian losses in Ukraine ... reached unsustainable levels [and] efforts inside Russia to recruit more men to fight in Ukraine are unable to obtain enough new recruits to replace all the losses."
Russia's botnets on offense in the cyber realm.
So it isn't dead? "The U.S. Air Force has released pictures of a live AGM-183 Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon hypersonic missile, or ARRW, under the wing of a B-52H bomber during a training event at Andersen Air Force Base on Guam."
Sadly, a good test: "Early last month, the US Army sent four Stryker-mounted 50-kilowatt laser prototypes to the Middle East for real-world testing that includes facing down dust particles[.]" And also, missiles.
I have no doubt we are: "I believe that many observers have overestimated the country’s apparent power." My question is do we overestimate our apparent power by more.
Xi counts on carefully calibrated nationalism to maintain power: "Beijing adjusts the volume on nationalistic rhetoric to serve its interests, according to Yuan, engaging in a balancing act of patriotic sentiment when necessary." I've warned the Chinese Communist Party is riding the tiger.
As long as the wheels don't come off before he leaps to the White House, Newsom doesn't care. Tip to Instapundit.
Iran's campaign against shipping in the Red Sea via their Houthi proxy is hurting Egypt's Suez Canal revenue. Ultimately that hurts Saudi Arabia.
Idiot, Useful: 1 ea. The writer in the SCMP is too ignorant to realize freedom wins even by his standard.
How China's subliminal war actually started: "In 2012, when Chinese marine surveillance vessels pushed the Philippine navy out of disputed waters in the South China Sea, Beijing learned it was possible to assert its sweeping territorial claims under the cover of enforcing domestic laws, without the help of its military."
Do they work? "The DF-21D missile, part of China's strategic anti-area/access denial (A2/AD) arsenal, represents a pivotal component of Beijing's military posture against US naval power in the Indo-Pacific." There are many points of failure if we attack them. Is it really "pivotal" given its large navy and air force?
Is this a sign that Russia has run out of other resources? "Russian forces appear to be willing to risk continued aviation losses in pursuit of tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, likely along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line."
Russia is relying more on North Korea for weapons and ammo? Just what is North Korea's ammunition production capacity? Is it really more significant than the West's? Or is North Korea's support a one-time dump of ammunition--starting with the old, degraded shells--produced over many decades?
