Friday, September 29, 2023

In for a Penny, In to Get Pounded?

Sending Secretary of Defense Austin to Africa may hold the line with our remaining allies and buy time. But ultimately resources are necessary to stabilize Africa.

Symbolism is nice

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is traveling to Africa next week to shore up U.S. defense relationships with allies during a time of heightened bloodshed across the continent and growing influence in the region from China and Russia.

Resources are better. (quoting an earlier 2020 post of mine):

We need to be careful in allocating combat resources to our unified commands. With the small numbers involved, will reductions in AFRICOM in favor of EUCOM or INDOPACOM provide significant reinforcements to the latter two regions?

Or will those transfers simply cripple AFRICOM's ability to defend our interests and prevent big problems from emerging in Africa?

It would be hard to argue that resources pulled from an already thinly resourced economy-of-force front effort in Africa make any difference in Europe, where Russia continues to invade Ukraine.

And given the scale of Russia's threat to European peace, it would be hard to argue that strengthening America's African efforts would make any difference in Europe. Or in Asia for that matter. 

Problems are definitely emerging in Africa that AFRICOM has not been able to stop. Russia is more than happy to stoke unrest in fragile states to impose pain on America for supporting Ukraine. As the Pentagon's Africa Center for Strategic Studies argues (from the initial article): 

Russia “typically relies on irregular (and frequently extralegal) means to expand its influence -- deployment of mercenaries, disinformation, election interference, support for coups and arms for resources deals.”

So I'll again advocate my force multiplier suggestion for The AFRICOM Queen joint and inter-agency power projection platform that was published in Military Review over seven years ago. It isn't a platform for the interior problem states. But it may hold the line near the coasts at a lower price, freeing resources for the inland states being undermined.

Or maybe we hope symbolism is equivalent to action. Which will work out just swell, I'm sure. 

UPDATE: Related: "Hundreds of Islamist militants riding motorbikes have attacked a town in south-western Niger, killing 12 soldiers, the defence ministry says." It's a mission from God.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.