I suspect Azerbaijan wants to finish off the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute once and for all while Armenia's protector, Russia, is busy; and before America can decide Armenia is an ally rather than a subject of sympathy.
Azerbaijan on Tuesday launched a military operation against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region and demanded the total withdrawal of Armenian forces from the disputed mountainous territory as a precondition for peace.I bet Azerbaijan wants this to be a war limited to capturing the disputed breakaway region. And Russia would probably appreciate Azerbaijan winning quickly:
A contingent of up to 2,000 Russian peacekeepers — installed after Moscow negotiated an end to large-scale hostilities in 2020 — has apparently not acted against Azerbaijan's current military offensive.
Azerbaijan has also benefited from military support from its traditional ally Turkey, which has increasingly filled a big-power void in the South Caucasus as Russia has focused its resources on the war in Ukraine.
Baku says the aim of the current mission, which began Tuesday, is to "disarm and remove" Armenian forces illegally operating inside the enclave and protect ethnic Azeris living in the region. Armenia's Defense Ministry denies its troops are operating in the area.
We'll see if Azerbaijan's drones are as
effective this war. And if the exclave's forces can resist an Azerbaijan onslaught.
And while Russia might prefer a quick defeat of Armenia that relieves Russia of pressure to act, will Russia instead go all-in to defend their ally, Armenia, to avoid losing other allies who see no value in Russian protection? Russia in theory has its air force and nukes free to bombard Azerbaijan targets. Nukes seem unlikely. Unless Russia thinks sending a message to NATO via Azerbaijan rather than Ukraine is safer.
Much may depend on whether Armenia cooperates and concedes the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh without trying to extend and expand the war.
UPDATE: Azerbaijan wants a localized war:
Azerbaijan has demanded the total surrender of the “illegal” Armenia-backed regime in Nagorno-Karabakh as its troops reportedly breached defensive lines in several places.
Will Armenia and Russia agree? Are they capable of disagreeing?
And as I wondered before the fighting started up again, will Iran intervene to help Armenia?
UPDATE: Background information on the conflict to the present time.
UPDATE: Russia decides a role in moderating the defeat is its best option:
Azerbaijan on Wednesday announced it had halted its military operation in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, after separatist Armenian forces agreed to lay down their arms and hold reintegration talks.
Baku and the ethnic-Armenian authorities in Karabakh said a deal was brokered by Russian peacekeepers to stop the fighting a day after Azerbaijan launched an "anti-terrorist operation".
Will ethnic Armenians flee to Armenia?
UPDATE: Yeah, the world abandoned Armenia. But to be fair, Armenia put its reliance on Russia. And while the demographics may give Armenia moral arguments to hold Nagorno-Karabakh, the legality says Azerbaijan owns the territory.
Like the status of Crimea, this jumble of territory and people didn't matter when the USSR existed.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
