Twenty-two years after the September 11, 2001 bloody terrorist attacks on America that fanatics on a mission from Allah carried out, America seems to have moved on to other threats that require only talking and preparing; with an aversion to facing current actual threats with action.
The Winter War of 2022 rages on. America's defeat in Afghanistan seems all but forgotten. I fear Americans would like to forget Ukraine, too, in order to "prepare for China," and just add another defeat so soon after America's skedaddle debacle out of Afghanistan.
Yes, the war in Europe inconveniently goes on.
Russia still attacks Ukraine in the east where its logistics are best; and defends in the south where Ukraine is counterattacking and making major efforts to cut Russia's longer supply lines to the Dnieper River and Crimea.
I want to stop Russia now because their "need" for a buffer in the west has no limits.
But the real focus is now on Ukraine's Western backers, especially America. Whether by design (seeking a nuanced "peace" without victory) or incompetence (how is it possible that is takes so long for America to send tanks and fighter planes to an ally at war for its very life?), Ukraine was denied the weapons to win after the Russian offensive culminated twice--once later in 2022 when its initial invasion was halted and smashed up; and the second time after the winter of 2023 depleted its hastily mobilized manpower.
It is odd. We knew we couldn't settle into Fortress America after 9/11 and went "over there" to minimize the need to fight them "over here." Especially given the worries right after the 2001 terror attacks, we've been amazingly successful.
But after nearly blowing Iraq by withdrawing in 2011 (and I have doubts about whether we are willing to oppose Iran to maintain and expand our 2014-2017 win in Iraq War 2.0) and actually blowing Afghanistan in 2021, Americans increasingly reject opposing our long-time enemy Russia (remember the Cold War?) in Ukraine where other people are willing to fight and die to do the job for both them and us.
Yet the idea that Ukraine should be abandoned to pivot to face China is strong. Even as there are many who say whether or not China owns Taiwan is none of our business.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Yeah:
Continued Western commitment to Ukraine cannot be guaranteed. Political constituencies in Europe and the United States are questioning long-term support for Ukraine. So far, such voices remain in the minority, but they are multiplying and becoming louder.
Remember, by helping but then abandoning Ukraine, it will be difficult to deter or defeat a future aggressor on another campaign area who will believe that in time we will falter again.
Russia will be weakened to buy time in Europe to prepare. That's something. But China or another aggressor--and a future Russia--could be encouraged to strike.
UPDATE (Wednesday): Ukraine struck Sevastopol, apparently with sea drones and missiles:
"We confirm a large landing vessel and submarine were hit. We do not comment on the means (used) for the strike," Ukrainian military intelligence official Andriy Yusov told Reuters after the attack, which took place early Wednesday.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
