Friday, September 08, 2023

Multiplying Putin's Paranoia

Russia is reacting to the Wagner Revolt by splintering his ground forces even more.

Putin is paranoid already. Acting on that to divide his potential enemies may make the consequences more dire for Russia.

This takes away troops and equipment from depleted army and paratrooper units that are bloodied but experienced

The Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) continues to form new regiments and appoint prominent Russian ultranationalists to command its units, possibly in an effort to incentivize recruitment.

The same criticism applies to Russian regions that form new volunteer units rather than sending replacements to existing volunteer units from the region. 

It's stupid unless the purpose is to rotate an existing unit out of combat to rebuild it. I doubt that is the purpose. But it rewards political supporters--and Putin--with a shiny new unit.

And while this may seem like a good idea to reinforce Putin's "own" supposedly loyal army, the Rosgvardia, and keep it close to him, the rest of Russia's ground forces are bleeding in Ukraine.

Maybe splintering ground power makes it less likely that any single ground force can muster sufficient power to overthrow Putin. That may be the lesson the Wagner Revolt taught Putin.

But splintering ground power makes civil war more sustainable, no? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.