Sunday, September 10, 2023

Weekend Data Dump

Not sure what to think about this: "Iraq's prime minister on Saturday inaugurated construction work on what is slated to become the first railway line connecting the country to neighbouring Iran, a major political and economic partner." Is this just an Iranian ploy to improve transportation to Syria?

Is the news too good to check that some tiny rocks recovered from the ocean may have come from outside the solar system? Tip to Instapundit.

This graph from the TDI illustrates the issue of firepower versus troop density trends that I occasionally mention:


Poland chooses the AH-64E. The Apache remains America's attack helicopter of choice. Attack helicopters seem like 21st century cavalry. Vulnerable to ground fire but valuable for pursuit or to rapidly react to and mass against enemy penetration of your own lines. Would the Army want helicopters if it had the money and responsibility for all flying objects that support the Army in combat?

Why do leftists hate people so much? I mean, they clearly want to punish us for our carbon sins. It's just a bizarre religious cult at this point. Now go and emit no more. I never expected to live in a utopia. I sure didn't expect dystopia, instead. I say, Helll no.

The Israeli assault across the Suez Canal in 1973. Can Ukraine do the same across the broad Dnieper River on the Kherson front?

More APCs, IFVs, and BFIST vehicles for the Army.

The standard Cosmology model is being undermined by data. Whatever. They can do what so much of the rest of "science" is essentially doing, convert to Astrology.

SpaceX works. So obviously the government will unleash Catch 22 and sue them for failing to obey all the sometimes conflicting laws until SpaceX submits and retreats into mediocrity.

I noted this exact thing last week: "At least a few people seem finally to be catching on that the basic idea behind 'homelessness' advocacy is to exploit an issue that brings forth great human empathy to generate vast taxpayer funds and then to not solve the problem." That author says the activists have a different welfare state objective. But it conveniently employs the activists, no? And the ill and/or addicted are still mere props. Tip to Instapundit.

Cities are hot? "A new study published in the scientific peer-reviewed journal, Climate, by 37 researchers from 18 countries suggests that current estimates of global warming are contaminated by urban warming biases." The science is never "settled." Via Instapundit.

Ukrainian air defenses continue to shoot down Russian drones attacking their country. Remember early in the year when a charge from the big Pentagon "leak" was that Ukraine would soon run out of air defense missiles?

Winning: "Russia's war on Ukraine triggered a massive brain drain, and the toll it will take on the economy is coming into clearer focus." Based on PPP, Russia's GDP could soon fall behind Indonesia's. I think PPP is over-used but it is a real trend. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine's attacks inside Russia are clearly moving from propaganda efforts to strategic warfare against military capabilities: "Ukraine said it carried out a drone strike on a factory on the outskirts of Moscow that manufactures microchips used in missile production, in a symbolically significant strike."

I assume this is a Russian effort to make sure the Chinese know the Russians aren't the worst ally China has: "Russia's defence minister has proposed to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that their countries hold a naval exercise, along with China[.]"

Our moral and intellectual superiors in the federal government want to take away our stuff while they continue to use them (because they need them and we don't). This sounds so familiar. Oh yeah, "He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance." Luckily, we can still vote them out. Can't we? Won't we?? Tip to Instapundit.

Interesting: "Researchers believe they’ve discovered the world’s largest asteroid impact crater in New South Wales, Australia."

It's kind of pathetic for Russia to seek help from North Korea: "Kim Jong-un will travel to Russia on an armoured train to sign a possible weapons deal with Vladimir Putin, according to US intelligence officials." North Korea will get food.

Australia wants unmanned naval vessels to scout for Chinese nuclear submarines in order to guide Australian attacks on them--including Chinese nuclear-armed subs that pose a threat to Australia. They'd be a force multiplier for Australia's future nuclear attack subs.

Is the Navy really being arrogant in downplaying unmanned vessels in favor of big carriers and nuclear attack subs? I'm already on record about the carrier part. Although I don't think it is "arrogance" at work. Tradition, sure. And perhaps conflating sea control with power projection. Or maybe just an unjustified belief that the latter is the biggest job in this age. Or too much faith that the carrier can't be hit or sunk. Which is both wrong and irrelevant. I do want more, cheaper ships. Ideally fighting networked. But I'm a little nervous about the robustness and security of a network needed to use unmanned ships successfully.

"Hiding" makes it sound like its actively avoiding us. We just can't find it. If it exists. Tip to Instapundit.

Smart Diplomacy®: " Iranian negotiators achieved another victory over the Americans by obtaining $16 billion for the release of five hostages and promises to reduce their nuclear weapons deliveries. Israeli officials are appalled at the continued gullibility of the Americans when dealing with Iran." Gullibility? No. Unrequited love. And the love of their life can do no wrong.

Grain War.

Massachusetts has called up the National Guard to deal with migrants taking advantage of the state's sanctuary cities. Troops!? Why isn't the state sending social workers? Tip to Instapundit.

Living in his own private Idaho. Meanwhile in the real world, the time bomb I've worried about is going off: "Net interest payments on America’s debt soared from about $350 billion in 2021 to nearly $800 billion today on an annualized basis." Via Instapundit.

Another case of changing definitions to alter perceptions of reality: "A large percentage of “active shooter” incidents are thwarted by armed citizens who sometimes don’t even fire their weapons, but those cases are no longer counted under President Joe Biden’s pro-gun control policies." Tip to Instapundit.

Are strategic nuclear torpedoes legal? If you are nuking a city I'm going to say you don't care. North Korea and Russia have them. For North Korea it may make sense to evade missile defenses. So Japan will need to beef up ASW detection between North Korea and Japan. But for Russia, what's the point? Unless their ICBMs don't work

Finally: "Japan’s Supreme Court on Monday dismissed Okinawa’s rejection of a central government plan to build U.S. Marine Corps runways on the island and ordered the prefecture to approve it despite protests by locals who oppose the American troops’ presence." The Marines want to move from its current facility that is a passive war crime waiting to happen.

Russia's faux alliance exercised on a small scale in Belarus

The U.S. may draw down the extra ground troop presence it sent to eastern NATO to reassure allies as Russia prepared to invade Ukraine.

The U.S.-China mil-to-mil contact freeze may be thawing. I don't think most of that contact helps us.

The Navy plans for a simply awesome DDG(X). I assume this will be cruiser-size. And I suspect it will become too expensive to build with the Navy's record. Network-centric warfare recedes into the future with these plans.

This was around when I went to basic training for soldiers who couldn't pass the initial push-up test: "A remedial course designed to prepare potential Army recruits for basic training will become a permanent part of the service’s strategy in overcoming its sagging enlistment numbers, officials said." The Michigan Guard had a different program I went to in 1987 before I went to basic that was a mini-basic that showed you what it was like. That was extremely useful and got me to get ready for basic training.

Sweden brings geography and an advanced defense industry to NATO. And capable air and naval power that can help allies from Norway to Finland and south to Poland. Sweden is only the most obvious example of how Russia has created enemies with its paranoid preemptive hostility.

Allies in the South China Sea.

Huh. True? If true, isolated or the first of more?

Quantity: "The Pentagon committed on Monday to fielding thousands of attritable, autonomous systems across multiple domains within the next two years as part of a new initiative to better compete with China." Multiply that by 10--monthly--if the Winter War of 2022 is anything to go by.

Armata not ready for its close-up.

This is one reason I've wanted us to help Ukraine win faster rather than later: As Ukrainians get used to the war and the sense of imminent peril recedes, corruption creeps back in.

The firing of Ukraine's defense minister was more about strategy than corruption. And let's face it, despite Ukraine's brilliant attrition of the Russian invaders, the porcupine strategy failed: "The hope was that a discouraged Moscow would simply reconsider its campaign. That didn’t happen[.]" Do tell. But what will the shift in strategy be?

Our media no longer subtly reflect the dominant culture. It is now the "agitprop" shock troops of the dominant (leftist) culture. The dominant culture is mostly social media, media, and societal elites. The news industry committed suicide when it went from blue collar "reporters" to elite-educated "journalists". I hope it isn't a murder-suicide plot with America. But hopefully the disconnect with real society means it is fragile and can be popped when people notice the emperor has no clothes. Tip to Instapundit.

People don't seem to like Assad when he is no longer standing between them and jihadis (he helped unleash to do just that): "Anti-regime protests are gaining traction in Syria with demonstrators calling for the overthrow of the regime, and the protests could expand during the coming weeks. "

Climate scientist: "To put it bluntly, climate science has become less about understanding the complexities of the world and more about serving as a kind of Cassandra, urgently warning the public about the dangers of climate change. However understandable this instinct may be, it distorts a great deal of climate science research, misinforms the public, and most importantly, makes practical solutions more difficult to achieve." The left destroys all our trusted institutions. Tip to Instapundit.

Via Instapundit, cardboard drones challenge advanced weapons. I was on the threat of small drone swarms many years ago in Army magazine. And I warned about small drone threats to air bases before that. Although I assumed aircraft shelters would preclude direct attacks on the planes.

Xi Jinping is trying fascism to retain CCP control under him: "In the last few centuries, China had endured periods when independent warlords ruled portions of a divided China and the communist Chinese feared this might happen again." Like I said, all of the above.

Australia joins the HIMARS club.

Tanks are powerful mobile, protected, firepower: "Yet as powerful as they are, tanks can be stopped; even unarmored ground troops armed with the right weapons can kill the largest and best protected tanks dead." Killing tanks is fun and easy. And even the best protected could be taken out of the fight.

Kamikaze naval surface drones. They can be part of a balanced breakfast, for sure. Just don't fling your panties at them, okay?

Will the U.S. restore air defenses to CONUS? "The U.S. military has begun a new formal effort to explore options for how to better defend the homeland against the threat posed by ever-more advanced Russian and Chinese cruise missiles." Well, CONUS is no longer a sanctuary.

Bloomberg Economics "now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the US — and even then, it will happen by 'only a small margin' before 'falling back behind.'" I've long noted potential Chinese obstacles to surpassing America.

Deterrence: "The U.S. military on Wednesday launched an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from California in a display of the U.S. nuclear forces' readiness."

Poland will buy hundreds of American Naval Strike Missiles. That will totally isolate Russia's Kaliningrad exclave. I wonder if some of Poland's existing anti-ship missiles will find their way to Ukraine.

Huh: "Armenia said on Wednesday it would host a joint military exercise with the United States next week, a development that Russia said was cause for concern."

No, it hasn't. But update your Newspeak Dictionary to use "climate breakdown." 

If energy is rationed, the wealthy and well-connected will get permission to use more.

Leftists charged for violence? That's a good sign. Well, let's see if there are serious convictions.

Mostly ammunition for Ukraine from America.

Upward revision of British GDP statistics undermine "bitter clinger" Remainers who still reject Brexit from the EU.

Ending the Abrams M1A2 SEP in favor of the M1E3.

Science! Wait. What?

The new 6.8mm M7 rifle and M250 light machine gun.

I noticed an older post of mine that the Winter War of 2022 is potentially validating: "When anything that emits--including the act of moving under surveillance--can be attacked and killed, a war of movement becomes nearly impossible while the enemy capability to see and shoot across the battlefield seamlessly as the Combat Lethality Task Force is pursuing remains intact."

The DOD intends to release its new Chinese defense report in mid-October.

Will Germany and France build a new common tank?

Are Western allies denying Ukraine new armored fighting vehicles? Maybe Ukraine just needs ammo. I can't rule out subtle pressure on Ukraine to win with what they have or cut a deal with Russia to end the war without liberating territory. 

Wow. Syrians protest Assad. Seriously.

Guilty liars (tip to Instapundit): "In what has become an annual tradition, Democrats and too many journalists are marking back-to-school season by trying to insist with a straight face that the COVID-era school closures from the autumn of 2020 all the way through 2022 were a bipartisan phenomenon, perhaps even mostly attributable to Republicans." TDR has exclusive video of the media effort to excuse what the teacher unions did and move on from the lockdowns that crippled a cohort of children:

 

India and America are more than friends but less than allies. Ukraine has gained from that kind of relationship, eh?

Yeah, we're clearing out our older stuff to avoid depleting our best stuff: "Ukraine has officially received nearly $100 billion in military aid. That number is inflated because many of the weapons and munitions were obsolete or, in the case of munitions, near or past their 'use by' date. The older weapons were still useful against Russian forces."

FFS, that ship sailed inflamed long ago with a pyromaniac Russian captain: "Allied leaders should resist these calls to embrace the 'NATO lake' strategy, which would further inflame NATO-Russia tensions within a particularly thorny flashpoint. The security of the alliance may depend on its approach to the region." Pacifist Europeans have reacted to Russian threats in the Baltic--not caused Russian hostility. And what does claiming "military suzerainty" even mean? That's not a legal concept. It's a concept of defense. What nonsense is that author peddling?.

Ukraine uses information as a force multiplier.

Desperately seeking North Korean ammunition and weapons.

Biden plans to secede from America, excluding Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Question: If a border between those states and America can be closed to illegal migrants, why can't the American border with Mexico be secured? And why aren't those migrants being kept in "sanctuary" states and cities? Tip to Instapundit.

Major loss of life in earthquake in Morocco. Good Lord.