China is not a global super power. And it may never become a global super power. But being a regional military power in the vital area of east Asia and the western Pacific is dangerous enough without drawing comfort from a high bar to measure Chinese threats.
There are problems in the modernized Chinese military, including:
An offshoot of the army domination problem is that there is little real joint (all services working together) planning. Currently, the Chinese army tells the navy and air force what it wants done and that is the end of that. The Chinese understand that their next war will likely be in the Pacific, not mainland China. The navy should be in the lead here but it isn’t.Do read it all.
Yes, we can safely assume China's military isn't as good as its shiny weapons and new-car smell portray. So don't panic. But don't underestimate them.
But it's sporting of our leadership to try to even the scales with efforts that detract from preparing to fight and win a war. Truly, they act as if they believe there are many substitutes for victory.
I like to think we retain an edge--once we reinforce the western Pacific after absorbing their first shot. Then toss in our allies--assuming they aren't spooked. But I am not nearly as confident in that judgment as I'd like.
And China can overcome many shortcomings by taking on targets close to China. I worry that in particular scenarios, China could win.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
