Wednesday, September 13, 2023

The Strategy Fairy Grants Your Asia-First Wish!

Critics of helping Ukraine defeat Russia are claiming American involvement  in the war should be limited to focus on China. WT actual F? Are these people not paying attention? This is exactly what America is doing!

Abandon Ukraine to support Taiwan? 

Russia is no threat to dominate Europe — it cannot even subdue Kyiv, let alone threaten Berlin, Rome or Paris — so U.S. involvement in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict should be limited. On the other hand, a China in possession of Taiwan would come to dominate first the Indo-Pacific, the region from which much of the world’s future growth will emanate, and then the whole of the Asian continent. This would be nothing less than a geostrategic disaster for America.

Yet another entry in the Goldilocks War syndrome:

Some people will just never support the war we are in right now. It doesn't matter what the war is at the moment.

They will cover their opposition by saying they supported a past war that we won (or even a lost war) even when they opposed such wars at the time. Just listen to those who now claim that they supported the Gulf War or Afghanistan campaign or who even respect the soldiers who fought in Vietnam. It's just this war in Iraq they oppose.

They may even say that another problem is more severe and must be met first--possibly with force--before waging the war in question. North Korea and Iran spring to mind. But you can always be sure that if the issue they once said is more important comes up, there will be another problem that must be dealt with first.

Whether too hot or too cold, the question of a war to defend us is never just right. 

This is an approach to effectively helping our enemies that used to be practiced by the left:

I've long expected the "good war" in Afghanistan to become the new "bad war" once we achieved victory in Iraq. Even before the Iraq Surge began to show signs of progress, anti-war types giddy over their apparent progress in losing the Iraq War in the spring of 2007 even let this goal of losing in Afghanistan too slip out.

The line of thinking for these formerly pro-Afghan War types is that it is regrettably too late to focus on Afghanistan now. Sure, they've long argued we are "distracted" by Iraq from winning in Afghanistan, but they can hardly maintain that position now that we have stomped our enemies in Iraq, now can they? That might mean they'd have to support an actual war we are fighting right now!

I guarantee that if we abandon Ukraine that in another 5-10 years, these same people will say we need to abandon Taiwan to support Poland and Romania. Because Russia is much closer to Berlin, Rome, and Paris. And really, an amphibious assault is the most difficult operation to carry out and so a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would surely fail.

With a bonus "Let the Russians get the Baltic states 'back'" argument thrown in to make it a complete entry in the "understanding Russia" genre'.

Further, it is absolute unrealistic bullshit to frame aid to Ukraine as taking away money from Americans at home. American aid to Ukraine is responsible for less than $114 billion (per that author) of America's $32 trillion national debt.

Which is 0.36% of the total. 

Aid to Ukraine is a rounding error of our budget problem.

Yes, as the author is essentially arguing, Europe is the economy-of-force front while Asia is the main front. And this is exactly how we are treating Europe since we won the Cold War:

No American fleets roam the Mediterranean Sea or guard Atlantic supply lines. Aircraft don't darken the skies of Europe. The Army doesn't possess a multi-corps army to hold back the enemy. You want reduced American power in Europe to focus on Asia?

Done! 

That author says America must "acknowledge limits, make strategic choices, and set priorities." And this Asia-first approach is exactly what we are doing by helping Ukraine fight Russia--all to make sure Russia can't grow enough to make Europe a more significant front.

So yeah, the Strategy Fairy grants that author's wish. 

This author explains the basic weakness of that initial author's advice:

The West has had a choice since the 1990s of confronting Russia now or later. It has always chosen to delay, and faced a much worse threat as a result. 
Yeah. Because Russia is less of a threat every mile further east it is.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.