Russia will rely on early use of nukes to make up for their shattered ground forces currently tied down fighting to conquer Ukraine. Also, do Russia's nukes work better than the rest of their military? Russia certainly needs potential enemies to believe that.
Russia says it will use nukes if, among other triggers, there is "aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy."
This really isn't anything new. Russia's conventional military was too small for defending its long vulnerable border even before Russia massed nearly all its ground combat power to invade Ukraine and wrecked it over the last two years:
Lowering the threshold for Russian use of nuclear weapons is an admission of conventional military weakness. For all the unjustified hype about Russian "hybrid warfare" Russia has weak conventional military options against any but the weakest and closest opponents.
Putin's war on Ukraine has intensified the stupidity.
And it will take time to rebuild Russia's conventional military:
“Moscow’s military forces will face a multi-year recovery after suffering extensive equipment and personnel losses during the Ukraine conflict. Moscow will be more reliant on nuclear and counterspace capabilities for strategic deterrence as it works to rebuild its ground force,” the Intelligence Community estimated in its annual threat assessment.
Although the Russian Ministry of Defense has announced plans to enlarge the military, it will take the Kremlin years to rebuild its previous combat capacity, let alone enlarge it. And it’s not just about numbers – rather, to increase its capabilities, the Russian military will need modern weapon systems and to provide adequate training to its soldiers.
That will be a scary time for Russia that will likely see more chest-beating and flinging nuclear poo to buy time to complete the rebuilding. Because do Russia's nukes actually work?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
