Yes, the enemy of their enemy is their friend. But that assumes the expediently defined friend can actually help against what is supposed to be a common enemy.
Where will America's relationship with China go after Xi meets Biden?
China’s economy is weak, and its weakness has created social tensions that Xi now has to manage. The U.S. wants China to curb some of its naval activity, of course, but I suspect they also have a common interest in curbing Russia. On paper, China is allied with Russia but has done little materially to back it up. Beijing’s historic distrust of Moscow isn’t so easily forgotten. The meeting will likely not mention Russia, save for a wink and nod.
Yeah, I've rejected the notion that Russia and China are tight allies--they can be broken apart depending on events.
But while I've seen that tension and look forward to aggravating a split, I think America would be better off strengthening the weaker power and not the stronger power. Helping China in the 1970s and 1980s was a smart plan. Helping China now is foolish.
The problem is that Putin has wrecked that smarter option by brutally invading Ukraine. Yet it still makes more sense for America to side with Russia to block a powerful China.
And if Russia can shake loose its self-destructive paranoia, it makes more sense for Russia to side with America to block a territory-hungry China.
Sure, Russia has to worry that America sees the prospect of a Russia-China war as a consolation prize if China can't be contained and encouraged to remain peaceful. But Russia will have to face that problem with or without Western help. Because China might not want to be dragged into a war by a weak but aggressive ally. And honestly, Russia deserves this dilemma given its own efforts in this area.
But now, before America can align with Russia to deal with the China problem Putin has to be defeated in Ukraine. Nothing less can justify rewarding Russia after invading Ukraine to help it repel even China's territorial ambitions.
Heck, nothing less than accepting complete defeat might save Putin himself.
UPDATE: Let me add a contrary voice from an analyst I respect:
Although much expert commentary on Russo-Chinese relations denies an alliance exists, their deepening military collaboration belies that conclusion. The countries’ joint behavior increasingly suggests that a China-dominated multi-dimensional partnership is here and encompasses even more areas of their economic, political and military policy.
Still, the "alliance" looks more like a vassal relationship. We agree on that, at least.
And I think China has to worry about wasting resources to keep its aggressive vassal from collapsing or losing a war against Western-supported Ukraine with potentially drastic changes in Russian foreign policy that could follow from either outcome. Nor can China be happy that Russia has forced the West to rebuild its inadequate defense industrial base. And is China happy that Russia has crippled its own military, making it less likely to absorb American power in the future?
I guess that depends on whether China comes to see Russia as more of an opportunity without limits rather than a partner vassal without limits.
Is that an alliance or is it Chinese damage control? And how much damage can China control?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
