Does the Chinese Communist Party think lots of nukes are the best way to guarantee that the country of China never becomes a continent of multiple Chinese states? Or is it all about America?
This Chinese nuclear weapons trend is painted as a threat to America:
According to a new Department of Defense (DoD) report on the military power of China, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) nuclear arsenal grew from 200 to over 500 warheads in just the past four years and will hit 1,000 and by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035.
And to a certain degree, it
is. If America and China are in a confrontation or war, China will have more nuclear leverage than it has now.
But China has not felt much of a need for more nukes to deter
America (or India) thus far. Suddenly having a lot more nukes is vitally
important to China's rulers. Why?
Maybe China wants to deter someone else that sees nukes as its ultimate territorial defense. Which is more pronounced now that most of Russia's shattered army is fighting Ukraine.
Or maybe the Chinese Communist Party sees a lot of nukes--as long as it retains control of them--as the best means of protecting China's territorial integrity from foreigners if the CCP finds it has to fight other Chinese to re-centralize China. As I note in one link in that post:
With a state both cruel and failing economically, governing a continent-sized population with a history of fragmentation, I don't know why we need to guess which course the government of China will follow. The continent of China is big enough that it could follow all the possible paths.
The current Communist Party might retain control of Peking region south to the Yellow Sea, Manchuria, and Inner Mongolia in a rump (though still large) People's Republic of China.
Tibet and the Moslem far west could regain independence under local ethnic rule.
The central poor and rural provinces might revert to real Maoism that promises peasants a better deal.
The regions in the southwest, adjacent to Burma, could become simple military dictatorships of varying degrees of harshness and varying connections to the drug trade.
Hong Kong might become a new Singapore with real democracy.
The coastal provinces might become full blown free market economies with either democracy or autocracy, or steps in between.
In a country the size and complexity of a continent, many futures are possible.
Nukes might keep foreign predators at bay--especially the "domestic" foreigners--until order is restored, no? And nukes would be the ultimate symbol of the authority of whatever rump of China the Chinese Communist Party controls.
I just don't assume China's expanded nuclear arsenal is necessarily for the primary purpose of deterring or fighting America. Mind you, in some ways we have to act as if it is true because intentions can change overnight. But let's not create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Keep calm and carry on.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
