While I suspect Israel finally had to give in to American demands for a temporary pause in the war against Hamas, I imagine Israel timed it to their best advantage. Israel may have reached some initial objectives and needed time to reconsider and adjust their plan for the next objectives. Or maybe they've been suckered into accepting an open-ended ceasefire after countries got used to the week-long "pause".
Right now, Biden and Hamas share the goal of ending the fighting soon. Mind you, Hamas wants to destroy Israel. Biden thinks destroying Hamas won't help Israel and will harm his party's election efforts. But the common immediate goal is preventing Israel from destroying Hamas. The next objectives diverge, in theory.
The ceasefire went to seven days, with pressure for more from people who've memory holed October 7th.* Can Israel ramp up the war again for long even with this bow to the pressure to end fighting?
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) released a new interactive map showing Gaza divided up into hundreds of numbered districts showing “evacuation zones” to be used in the “next stage of the war,” after the truce agreement expired and fighting restarted Friday.
Remember, the rules of war don't require no civilian casualties. The rules of war require minimizing civilian casualties as your forces pursue legitimate military objectives.
But let's also remember who Hamas is. Hamas supporters put on a horror show (tip to Instapundit):
Among images of the bombed out homes and ravaged streets of Gaza, some stood out for the utter horror: Bloodied, abandoned infants.
With emphasis on "show":
Viewed millions of times online since the war began, these images are deepfakes created using artificial intelligence.
Iraqi doctors say they were told to collect dead babies who had died prematurely or from natural causes and to store them in cardboard boxes in refrigerated morgues for up to four weeks - until they had sufficient corpses for a parade.
Many of the children died, they say, as a result of the Iraqi government's own neglect as it lavished funds on military programmes and Saddam's palaces in the knowledge that it could blame sanctions for the lack of medicines and equipment in hospitals and clinics.
As I noted in that ancient June 19, 2003 post recovered from my original site:
Such a basic Islamic tradition of burying a dead person immediately was violated for propaganda. The next time you read about some former Baathist Sunnis complaining that our troops enter homes without removing their freaking boots, remember Saddam's compliance. I dare say our "cultural sensitivity" exceeds Saddam's.
The doctors quoted also confessed that they know that Saddam and not the sanctions killed those children who did die. They knew the money existed. They knew the regime favorites had all the medicine they needed.
It just depresses me that so many even here are so ready to believe the worst about America. So ready, in fact, that even the accusations of a murdering fiend like Saddam are credible to them. How much of this lie did the bought and paid for western news outlets in Iraq know? We know they refused to report much to maintain their precious "access."
Some things remain the same even as technology advances, as belief in Hamas propaganda is matched only by rejection of Israeli evidence--evidence that includes what Hamas openly boasted about.
Don't think that Hamas and its supporters would be satisfied with a "permanent" ceasefire as so many Hamas supporters say they want. A permanent ceasefire is what Israel wants. Because that would mean no more Hamas rockets fired at Israeli civilians. It would mean no more terror attacks aimed at random civilians (during the "pause"). It would mean no more joyously celebrated October 7th terrorist killing and raping sprees.
No, a premature ceasefire is just a means to save Hamas so it can rebuilt for more rocket attacks. More random shootings. And a bigger killing and raping invasion.
And an exit question. If Israel is killing so many Gazans, why do Hamas supporters have to use AI for bodies?
An Israeli Prime Minister foreign policy adviser said the buffer zone plan is part of a "three-tier process" that includes destroying Hamas, demilitarizing Gaza, and deradicalizing the enclave.
UPDATE: Israel tries to minimize Gazan casualties as it pursues legitimate military objectives notwithstanding Hamas violations of the rules of war (tip to Instapundit):
With Israel and Hamas returning to arms Friday after the terror group ended a weeklong pause in the fighting across the Gaza Strip, the Jewish state is again under international pressure to halt its war to eliminate the jihadists who brutally slaughtered more than 1,200 people — including 33 Americans — on Oct. 7.
UPDATE: Israel is moving south:
Israel said its troops moved into “the heart” of Khan Younis on Tuesday, the second largest city in Gaza, marking “the most intense day” of battles since the ground invasion started over five weeks ago.
I've also heard that Israel has suffered about 400 military deaths in the war. But that includes what I think were 200 killed in the initial October 7th pillaging raid. Israel claims to have killed 5,000 Hamas men.
And a note on Hamas claims of civilian casualties that are passed along by Western media unchallenged. We really don't know the truth. In the one comparison we have between Hamas claims and reality--the alleged Israeli bombing of a hospital--Hamas claimed 500 civilians were killed. But in truth a Hamas ally accidentally hit the hospital. And the death toll was at most 50. So it would not be unreasonable to guess that civilian casualties are 10% of Hamas claims. Note too that Hamas no doubt counts Hamas casualties as civilians whenever they can.
UPDATE: Already NSC spokesman John Kirby is leaning into "pausing" the war again:
"We're doing everything we can to try to get them released," he continued. "We're constantly engaged with our partners in the region to try to get this humanitarian pause back in place, so that the flow of hostages can renew."
Reward hostage-takers and they'll keep taking hostages. Ask Iran how restocking its hostage supply pays off.
UPDATE: On the surface, I agree:
A handful of former United States military leaders have argued in recent days that the Department of Defense has not adequately responded to a series of attacks against U.S. forces carried out by groups with Iran's backing.
But we want the pain we inflict on Iran to be quiet so it doesn't put Iran's reputation on the line to escalate the fight even if Iran doesn't want to join the war.
All I'll ask is whether we are quietly striking back in ways we can't see, using publicized air strikes for the benefit of our allies and our own people to see open retaliation.
But maybe only the publicized strikes exist. So I'll also ask if we know--because we talked to Iran--that the mullahs don't want to escalate, so we are limiting to our strikes to Iran's proxies. That is, if the reason to strike Iran is to deter them from expanding the war, we don't need to because we know Iran isn't about to jump in.
I try hard not to let my political views infect my judgment of what is going on. We may have succeeded (so far) in containing the war for the benefit of Israel without needing to hit Iran.
UPDATE: Regarding my comment above about Hamas claiming armed casualties are civilians, this about the 2008-2009 war:
Hamas said that fewer than 50 of the 1,400 dead in Gaza had been combatants. But more than a year later, Hamas’ interior minister acknowledged in an interview with the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper that between 600 and 700 of its militants were killed in that war.
UPDATE: The Biden administration wants Israel to ease off:
"As we stand here almost a week into this campaign into the south, ... it remains imperative that Israel put a premium on civilian protection,” Blinken said Thursday. “And there does remain a gap between … the intent to protect civilians and the actual results that we're seeing on the ground."
But we don't actually know what the civilian casualties are. Is Blinken relying on Hamas claims? Unfairly or not, the clock is ticking for Israel.
UPDATE: I suspect Iran doesn't want to fight but has to pretend it is on the cusp of saddling up and riding to the rescue of Hamas:
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned that war would likely expand and the “region could explode out of hand” if the United States and Israel continue to support the military operation into the Gaza Strip during a phone call with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on December 9.
But Iran's government could be under pressure by the most extreme jihadis inside Iran to join the fight regardless of the pain Iran would endure. So this is another reason for Israel to pay attention to the clock if it wants to achieve its objective of crushing Hamas.
UPDATE: Tick tock:
CNN has previously reported that US officials expect Israel’s operation targeting the southern end of the strip to last several weeks before it transitions, possibly by January, to a lower-intensity, hyper-localized strategy that narrowly targets specific Hamas militants and leaders, according to multiple senior administration officials.
Israel has been advancing into the south. Is Israel trying to meet that expectation?
UPDATE: Different jihadis is not the answer:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday rejected the Biden administration’s postwar plan to have the Palestinian Authority take over Gaza, the sharpest sign of his pushback against the U.S. blueprint for administering the enclave after the invasion ends.
The PA is not the peace partner Israel needs.
UPDATE: Israel doesn't highlight the suffering of Gaza civilians. That's bad, apparently.
First, we don't know the extent of the suffering given casualty figures and other information comes from Hamas. And while the displaced people's suffering is lumped in with deaths, displacing civilians was intended to reduce the deaths. That's good, no?
Suffering is surely happening. A lot of it. And I feel bad about the little kids. But suffering is the price of Gazans enthusiastically cheering when Hamas proudly displayed the suffering they inflicted on their murder, torture, and rape victims on October 7th.
UPDATE: If Hamas is defending in urban areas, Israel pretty much has to call down fire on them, so is Israel "indiscriminately" bombing Gaza, as Biden said? But the clock is clearly ticking on American support.
*I keep open the possibility that American calls for Israel to obey the rules of war to protect civilians are simply a shield to allow our Arab allies to show restraint as Israel attacks Hamas.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
