A two-state solution is necessary for ultimate peace between Israel and Palestinians. But when Palestinians continue to demand the destruction of the Jews "from the river to the sea" a two-state solution is not what the Palestinian leadership wants. How do we get two states living in peace there?
I will concede that in some ways the Palestinian identity is artificial, having been stoked by the Soviets and Arab states unable to defeat Israel's military in battle. Neither Egypt nor Jordan showed any interest in a Palestinian state in Gaza or the West Bank when they controlled those two territories.
And Arab states have not shown particular affection for Palestinians who threatened stability in Jordan until driven out in a bloody war, continue to do so in Lebanon, and who cheered Saddam's conquest of Kuwait.
Yet Palestinian national identity exists now. That is a reality that cannot be dismissed because of questions about the origin. Recall that American identity took time to go from British subjects demanding their rights to independence, as fighting between American and British forces took place between April 1775 and July 1776. And it took the Civil War through the Spanish-American War to really think of our country as one nation rather than a coalition of states or victors and vanquished. Our national identity is no less real for its origin.
So yes, a two-state solution is the only non-genocidal way (for either side) to escape this long conflict.
But the problem is not the Israelis who have repeatedly accepted the idea of a Palestinian state--if the Palestinians would accept less than all of the territory of the Israeli state and its controlled territory.
The problem is that the Palestinian leadership keeps turning down opportunities to make peace shy of its maximalist objective of destroying Israel to create their Palestinian state on Israel's funeral pyre.
In my view the Palestinians hold the title of the most stupid and self-destructive people in the world today. That they are uniquely propped up by the UN to avoid the consequences of their maximalists objectives is no coincidence.
So how do we get to a two-state solution that isn't merely the second stage of a plan to destroy Israel?
One, create--don't try to futilely find (see the UN)--a peace partner. This will take time. A COIN approach is fine as far as it goes, as Petraeus advocates, but until there is a parallel Awakening of Gazans rejecting Hamas and its ilk there will be no peace partner against a common Hamas enemy. Although being a much smaller target of COIN operations than Iraq--more than ten times more populous--wwould help.
And if Israel screens Gazans to decide who is allowed back into the north where the COIN campaign will be waged--while the south is allowed to fester in its hate with a long-term Israeli program of reaching in to kill Hamas members--the population total to be pacified and evolved will be even smaller.
Two, divide the land being contested with Israeli security concerns met. Perhaps with future options to contract the obviously needed Israeli buffers.
And three, the right of return for the (almost entirely) descendants of Palestinian refugees from Israeli territory can only be honored with a virtual recognized state of Palestine to complement the territorial-based Palestine. While Israel could allow actual living original refugees--after passing security screening--to return to Israeli territory, their descendants cannot possibly be allowed in. Everyone knows that is a demand designed to achieve the maximalist Palestinian objective.
So the "right of return" for the vast majority of Palestinians not already in Gaza and the West Bank must mean the right to "return" to a status of citizen of a Palestinian state without returning to territory retained by Israel. Let the Palestinian state decide if it wants to invite its new citizens into its actual territory.
To achieve peace, let's think outside the physical box of the tiny territory that Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank make up.
Hamas fighters continued to attack the QRF by setting off IEDs and throwing grenades at Israeli forces. Israel recovered the bodies of the Israeli fireteam, but five additional Israeli soldiers died during the rescue operation including a battalion commander, three company commanders, and the “head of the Golani Brigade’s forward command team.”
The officer casualties are shocking. How could that possibly happen?
Hamas is being pounded. But they aren't helpless.
I can't help but think that Hamas could have launched a hostage-taking raid that did not include mass rape and murder. Israel could have been paralyzed with the intense desire to trade as many Palestinian prisoners as necessary to get the hostages released. That kind of drawn out emotional crisis might have broken Israeli resolve.
But inculcated hate among Gazans and the opportunity to rape, torture, and murder Jews got in the way of a real operation to harm Israel. We'll see if this is indeed the Last Hamas War.
UPDATE: I'm pleasantly surprised John Kirby said what I've been saying:
Hamas could release the hostages today, they could surrender all those responsible for the October 7th attacks and lay down their arms, and the war would stop immediately. If they really cared about the Palestinian people the way they claim to, they would do this.
The man is right.
UPDATE: This author is probably right that it would be a mistake for Israel to expand their war to take on Hezbollah. As I've argued, it would have to be a long ground raid in force. This may not be the best time. But that's from America's perspective. Israel may very well figure, in for a penny, in for a pound.
But it is ridiculous for him to blame Israel for expanding fronts when Iran has expanded fronts in a single war against Israel from Gaza, to Lebanon, to Syria, to Iraq, and all the way to Yemen--plus cyberspace and a nuclear weapons program. The author's claim is that Israel attacking Hezbollah would "open the gates of Hell" in the region. But his link is to a pre-Iraq War Arab News claim. You'd think he could link to something more recent than a biased old false prediction.
I say we won the Iraq War. Obama and Biden agree. Imagine the region without that victory. If the gates of Hell weren't wide open in the region before we invaded and freed Iraq, they were certainly ajar. And notwithstanding the author's take, you're damn right that the Biden-Obama team loves Iran!
Is Responsible Statecraft just the place where all the "Let the Wookie win" advocates gather?
UPDATE: Tick tock:
In recent days, U.S. officials have said they want Israel to consider scaling back its large-scale ground and air campaign against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
I think the multi-day "pause" was an early symptom of this pressure.
UPDATE: The war goes on. Although Strategy Page seems to use Hamas casualty figures for civilians.
UPDATE: Hamas is not built for negotiations:
Hamas’ ideological rigidity, significantly different from the PLO’s trajectory, suggests a lower likelihood of engaging in negotiation processes akin to those conducted by the PLO with Israel. The organization has consistently viewed agreements like the Oslo Accords as a betrayal to the Palestinian cause, a perspective likely to influence its conflict strategy.
Even if Israel was willing to split the difference and accept that Hamas can murder half of the Israeli population, Hamas would just consider that half the job.
UPDATE: Different jihadis may just replace a destroyed or just defeated and discredited Hamas:
Israel, in formulating its post-conflict strategy, needs to consider the potential vacuum that might be created if Hamas is defeated.
Which is why Israel has to create something better to fill the vacuum.
UPDATE: Is the West just pretending to be impatient with Israel? I did say repeated American statements that Israel should be careful about civilian casualties could be about shielding Arab governments being calm about the war. Does Israel have more time than I feared they would have?
UPDATE: Despite assumptions that Iran ordered Hamas to invade Israel to rape, murder, torture, and take hostages, Iran did not order the attack notwithstanding Iran's extensive support for Hamas:
Surviving Hamas members were surprised to discover that Iran had not ordered Hamas to attack. It was Hamas leaders that approved the attack and many of them died during the subsequent fighting.
I didn't assume what the purpose of the invasion was. Nor did I assume Iran ordered the attack.
On October 7, 2023, Iran discovered a problem with "leading from behind." So now Hamas is mostly alone to face Israel's wrath.
Interestingly, Hezbollah is largely ignoring Iran's pressure to help Hamas. Unmentioned is Hezbollah's bloody expedition into Syria to save Assad during the multi-war. Also, Strategy Page is more upbeat than I am about the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah clash.
UPDATE: I've assumed the Hamas tunnel system is exaggerated. I'm moving into the neutral zone:
The Israeli military said Sunday it has discovered a large tunnel shaft in Gaza close to what was once a busy crossing into Israel, raising new questions about how Israeli surveillance missed such conspicuous preparations by Hamas for the militants' deadly Oct. 7 assault.
But saying the recent tunnel is wide enough to pass a car implies cars are used in it. I take that as a way to picture the size rather than a function. Until I read otherwise.
UPDATE: A reminder that Hamas could--but won't--end the suffering of their people by surrendering:
Hamas and the allied Islamic Jihad have rejected an Egyptian proposal that they relinquish power in the Gaza Strip in return for a permanent ceasefire, two Egyptian security sources told Reuters on Monday.
Hamas can't protect its people. Indeed, it does not want to. Instead, Hamas and its allies use Gazans as human shields to protect their fighters. Every real or pretend dead Gazan in Hamas casualty press release helps Hamas avoid defeat.
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
