Thursday, December 21, 2023

India Demotes Pakistan

India is finally letting go of its long-time Pakistan threat that defined how India armed and deployed its military to pivot to China.

India is finally shifting military resources to face China and building infrastructure to support them

Indian leaders have talked about China as the main enemy for 25 years. But deployments told a different story. Only 12 of the Indian army’s 38 divisions historically faced China. Terrorist attacks emanating from Pakistan and domestic insurgencies absorbed most of the army’s attention. The trigger for change came in June 2020 when, after years of rising tensions, Indian and Chinese troops clashed violently, with clubs and machetes, in the Galwan valley in the mountains of eastern Ladakh.

After that skirmish, which resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese ones, India swiftly moved 68,000 troops and a bevy of tanks to the area, where a lone infantry division had previously covered 800km (500 miles) of front line. Jets and helicopters were sent to northern bases. A push for new roads, tunnels and bridges was accelerated—60% of border roads built in the past three years have been in states bordering China.

Some units tasked with preparing to deal with Pakistan and China are now solely focused on China.

So India will be reinforcing their "long walls" in the north. And I think that the ultimate defense if China gains ground there is at sea to cut off China's trade routes going through the Indian Ocean. India is weaker, but has home field advantage.

We'll see how modernization goes with India's dysfunctional defense procurement complex that among other things cripples India's drive to update their air force.

And jointness problems regarding this attitude (back to the initial article) sounds familiar: 

Progress on theatre commands has been achingly slow, in large part thanks to resistance from the air force. It is loth to see its shrinking fleet of aircraft parcelled out among several theatres, commanded by generals and admirals and devoted to tactical skirmishing on the front lines rather than strategic attacks deep into enemy territory. The first theatre commands, due to be launched next year, will be fragile experiments in inter-service harmony.
Still, India just needs to be better than whatever military resources China can spare to deal with India.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post