The Houthi haven't acknowledged targeting our warship: "An American warship and multiple commercial ships came under attack Sunday in the Red Sea, the Pentagon said."
Invading Julian Felipe Reef while hiding behind civilians: "The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) has deployed two of its vessels in the South China Sea after monitoring an 'alarming' increase in the number of Chinese maritime militia vessels at a reef within the country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ)."
Friends: "The Philippines and France agreed on Saturday to ramp up military ties, including possible negotiations to allow soldiers from each country into the other's territory."
You can hardly blame the jihadis given that the Philippines invaded Iraq in 2003, right? "Islamic State militants claimed responsibility for a deadly bombing at a Catholic Mass in the Philippines on Sunday that killed at least four people and injured 50 others." Oh wait. The Philippines hasn't done anything like that.
Mirror-like surfaces on planes to reduce signatures?
I listened to an American professor who supposedly offers great commentary on the Winter War of 2022. But he droned on about how much he hates use of the word "stalemate" about the war. Because, he said, it evokes chess and implies that there are set rules and forces that mean there is no escape from the lack of movement. Which I think is rubbish and overly focused on a single word. It's a territorial stalemate--until somebody finds a means to escape that currently existing situation. Anyway, I won't be searching for the professor's commentary.
Oh, please: "President Joe Biden’s administration is publicly attempting to avoid a war with Iran, but American officials continue to fan the flames of war with incendiary rhetoric as the war in Gaza risks expanding into a broader regional conflict." Biden-mullah conflict is a show to hide Biden efforts to bolster the administration's one true love. Unless Iran gets pushed by their most extreme Islamist supporters, Iran knows it just has to be patient to get its nukes and freedom of action.
An Air Force tradition of air dropping gifts across the Federated state of Micronesia and Palau. I believe this was inspired by World War II "cargo cult" hopes.
A "known wolf" murdered one and wounded two in Paris: "The suspect had been sentenced to four years in prison in 2016 for planning another attack and was on the French security services’ watch list, and was also known for having psychiatric disorders, the interior minister added." I'm sure French security services are too busy watching for a resurgence of "yellow vest" protesters to deal with actual Islamist threats. The man was upset about Moslems dying in Afghanistan, apparently unappreciative of America's self-inflicted defeat more than two years ago.
The U.S. believed Ukraine could punch through Russia's defenses with the weapons Ukraine had, but wanted an earlier counteroffensive to deny Russia more time to prepare. One aspect: "Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop
war games to build a campaign plan. But Washington miscalculated the
extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a
Western-style fighting force in a short period — especially without giving Kyiv air power integral to modern militaries." What is with our combat models?
Is that paper strength? "The increase would take the overall number of Russian military personnel to more than 2.2 million, including 1.32 million troops, according to the decree published by the Kremlin Friday." Because before Russia invaded Ukraine I remember reading that Russia's nominally million-man armed forces had 3/4 of that actually in uniform. Has Russia really expanded their military despite the heavy casualties of more than a year and a half of war? I'm assuming that Russia isn't keeping everyone it has inducted during the war "in for the duration" rather than letting those with expired terms of service go home.
Is China bluffing or working up the resolve to take direct action against our lawful use of international waters? "The Chinese military said that an American naval ship had 'illegally intruded' on Monday into waters near the Second Thomas Shoal, the site of a hot territorial dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea."
Australia is a conveniently located missile and aircraft platform: "The U.S. Defense Department plans to conduct joint hypersonics
experiments with the Australian military as soon as next year, according
to the Pentagon’s chief technology officer." Makes sense.
Countdown to Kristallnacht. With Tiktok it won't be limited to one city, of course. Tips to Instapundit.
Ukraine liked them but the current war may be over before production restarts in 2027: "European defense manufacturer MBDA is reviving production of PARM, a Cold War era anti-tank weapon that performed well in tests." It is a directional mine. A Claymore for armored vehicles.
Training and equipping Taiwan. That's important. But it isn't the biggest problem Taiwan has.
American universities became expensive diploma mills and destroyed their product. Tip to Instapundit.
The new Russian airborne "division" seems like the slightly expanded brigade it used to be. And Lord knows how well equipped or trained it is. But Putin has another divisional flag on his situation maps to move around. It would have been better to use whatever resources were available to rebuild existing divisions.
Progress to sanity? "In a startling divergence from the conventional climate dialogue, COP28
President Sultan Al Jaber has boldly questioned the so-called scientific
consensus on the need to phase out fossil fuels to achieve the 1.5°C
climate goal." I don't see why the temperature goal is important when mitigation would be cheaper. But this highlights how the science is twisted by activists who summarize the science, the reporters who get their information from the activists, and the politicians who bow to the activists and reporters.
Interesting: "Finland's Minister of European Affairs Anders Adlercreutz said it’s hard to believe sabotage to the [Finland-Estonia] undersea gas pipeline was accidental — or that it happened without Beijing’s knowledge."
Venezuela engineered a pretext to invade Guyana. But perhaps this is just meant immediately to distract the world from wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Yet the future safety of Guyana is compromised.
The European Union has a new plan to stop illegal migrant boats from reaching Europe. The EU has had plans for 20 years. The flow may slow from specific locations but it never stops. That's okay. For the EU, the power to make plans is more important than making the plans work. Why would the EU stop something that is an excuse to gather more power?
Of course, convincing many in the Moslem world that "peace" does not mean the destruction of Israel is a stumbling block: "With the terrorist attacks of October 7, Hamas has managed to derail efforts to establish Saudi-Israeli peace. And yet, Saudi Arabia and Israel remain united in their desire to avoid a larger regional conflict, eliminate terrorism, and reinvigorate that peace process."
Justice may yet be served in this gross state violation of the First Amendment. That prosecutors and lower level judges participated in this mis-use of state apparatus to make the process the punishment is outrageous. I want consequences for those involved in persecuting that man.
France isn't even watching the "known wolves" who kill for Allah. How can the government possibly protect France from the unknowns? "France is supposed to be on high alert following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, but there are mounting questions about how this attack was not prevented." The French people have noticed. And other Europeans have noticed. Related: "Europe faces a 'huge risk of terrorist attacks' over the Christmas holiday period due to the fallout from the war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, the European Union's home affairs commissioner warned Tuesday." Maybe detain the known wolves now.
The Navy will start arming subs with long-range Tomahawk anti-ship missiles next year.
I just don't believe the UFO theories of alien origin. I've long assumed this stuff is secret because they are sightings of advanced American aircraft. Or maybe we don't want enemies to know that almost all of the sighting are nonsense rather than sightings of American weapons being tested.
Australia has joined America-Japan tabletop wargames across Japan.
Ford sailed into Souda Bay, Crete, to give its sailors a break in its long deployment.
Tip of the dangerous iceberg or just an ice cube? "A growing movement of Russian women is demanding the return from the front of their husbands, sons and brothers who were mobilised after a decree by President Vladimir Putin in September last year."
The Red Sea Regatta is proposed: "'We are in talks with other countries about a maritime task force of
sorts involving the ships from partner nations alongside the United
States in ensuring safe passage,' Sullivan told reporters." Makes sense.
We in the West have chosen to let the barbarians in our cities sack them. We can choose to stop them. Will we?
Russia sold a lot of Su-35s to Iran rather than use the planes themselves in exchange for Iranian drones: "Russia was slow to ship most of its own Su-35s to Iran, especially now that Russia knows that the Iranian UAVs supplied were not as effective as expected."
The new Japanese Mogami-class multi-mission stealthy frigate.
A house in the Washington, D.C. area blows up after someone inside fires at least 30 flares into the air around the house? Would a drug lab blow up like that? Or was it a terrorist? And what's with the flares? Was the occupant trying to signal someone?
Why bother? Their fanatical fanboys in the West will justify whatever the "resistance" does: "Hamas broke a humanitarian truce last week in order to avoid releasing Israeli women who endured rape or other atrocities in its custody, Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s spokesman has suggested." Tip to Instapundit. To repeat:
J6 defendants are appealing their convictions for delaying Congressional certification of the 2020 presidential election because: "the indictment takes a statute directed at the destruction of records in accounting fraud and applies it to disputing the outcome of a Presidential election. This stretches the statutory language beyond any plausible mooring to its text." I've long said that thinking "delaying government proceedings" is a crime is ridiculous because that's largely the purpose of protests. Our prisons would be filled with Code Pink hags who have spent the last twenty years delaying Congressional committee meetings if it was a major crime. Why has it taken more than two years to find out about the farcical basis of the prosecutions?
Israel was surprised by its own hubris on October 7th. Pretty much. I assume we will be surprised by our own hubris of believing Iranian mullahs just want Iran to be a successful, regional power where urban planning policy wonks rule. I don't think Iran ordered the October 7th slaughter and rape raid. But I do think our leaders strangely believe Iran only threatens to build nukes to get more GDP growth.
With a largely static front line, the Russians are apparently using their air force much more to attack Ukrainian troops on the front. Russia can use long-range weapons launched from beyond Ukrainian air defenses. In the summer, Russia was using their attack helicopters in the same way. Although I don't hear as much about them recently. But perhaps that is because Ukraine's summer counteroffensive has petered out.
Senator Tuberville ended his block of all but the highest level of officer promotions. I think this is an error. This was framed as the senator hurting military capabilities. But I think it was a battle over the military obeying the president rather than the laws that govern all of us. The administration held military capabilities hostage to allow it, rather than the law, tell the military what to do. The laws can be changed. If that doesn't guide military actions, what is the limit? I just don't like this precedent.
China claims the area. America denies China has the legal authority to do that: "China's military said on Wednesday it sent fighter jets to monitor and warn a U.S. Navy patrol aircraft that flew over the sensitive Taiwan Strait, a mission that took place weeks before Taiwan holds elections."
Why is the Republican-Democrat battle over military aid to Ukraine and Israel the Republicans' fault? Remember, Republicans are insisting that funding go to finally controlling the wide open southern border before they pass military aid. Are Democrats claiming that the border is fine? Are they willing to doom Ukraine and harm Israel for what should be a no-brainer point of agreement on our own border security? I want aid to Ukraine, Israel, and a protected border. And given that we require a calm North America to project power, I'm willing to back the Republican effort despite the risks abroad. Why are Democrats determined to doom Ukraine and punish Israel in order to leave our border unprotected?
Old man's war. The ROK military was more worried about broken hips to make this real training. To be fair, there could be a place for senior citizens in base security or static posts where they don't have to carry heavy loads like infantry. And South Korea's low birth rate could make the ROK military roll out real training to these volunteers to cope with foreign threats.
Wagner forces are successfully helping Mali hold off jihadis after the government ejected UN forces. I was skeptical they'd be successful.
The evolving Virginia-class SSN. Block 5 will carry a lot more guided missiles, torpedoes, and mobile naval mines. But these boats in total are meant to replace the missile capacity of our four SSGNs that will retire. Lots of details, so do read it all. Although I've wondered if our new SSBN design will extend production to build new SSGNs.
Neighborhood watch: "As China expands its operations across the Pacific, the U.S. is urging countries in the region to expand their maritime awareness through new technology like unmanned systems[.]"
Reports of more Russian desertions is good--if true. But the statistic given is pretty weak. Who is contacting the group? Actual soldiers? What are the actual numbers? I'm sure Ukraine suffers from desertions, too. That's just a fact of life in war. So far poor Russian morale has been good enough to fight. Unless Ukraine--or events--can push that morale over the edge, the war goes on.
Interesting: "Saudi Arabia has asked the United States to show restraint in responding to attacks by Yemen's Houthis against ships in the Red Sea, two sources familiar with Saudi thinking said, as Riyadh seeks to contain spillover from the Hamas-Israel war."
EVs are the vehicle of the future. And always will be? Tip to Instapundit.
I assume this will push more officers to only obey orders rather than use initiative and risk the gulag if things go wrong--as they will in war: "A Moscow military court has sentenced two Russian officers -- Colonel Anatoly Bondarev and Major Dmitry Dmitrakov -- to four years in a penal colony for "failing to repulse a surprise attack" by Ukrainian forces on Russian territory."
Fears in Asia that war decisions may be out of their hands in the struggle between America and Japan: "Whatever hidden aspirations Asia may have, what it hears and fears is that tune by Thucydides." Accidents happen. So there could be clashes started by local commanders. But I think there is a Thucydides Escape Valve for the war trap. Remember too that the classic Thucydides Trap assumes a power transition between America and China (ignoring allies) which America will fear and use as an excuse to start a war while we have the advantage. Will China pass American economic power?
While I keep using the name "Czech Republic" I've noticed increased use of "Czechia". I'm sticking with the former for now.
More American ammunition and other sustainment aid for Ukraine.
The road to a banana republic: "This carve-out legal system [for J6 defendants] involves the unprecedented and possibly unlawful use of a corporate evidence-tampering statute; excessive prison sentences and indefinite periods of pretrial incarceration; and the designation of nonviolent offenses as federal crimes of terrorism."
It's at least a sign that Xi Jinping will tolerate no dissent: "In a sign of instability in Beijing’s top ranks, foreign policy and defense officials are vanishing as Xi roots out perceived enemies." He wants his subordinates in line. Where will Xi take China?
China is flummoxed as it rapidly goes from worrying about too many people to worrying about too few: "In short, having devoted considerable resources to reducing the birth rate, the government of China is now discovering that it is difficult to encourage more births. Additionally, societal changes, such as increased prosperity and continued, though tapering, economic growth mean that people are increasingly content with fewer children, or no children at all."
Japan and America practiced defending Taiwan. And this: "Weather and ocean states in October, much like in March through April, provide Beijing a favorable window to attempt an invasion of Taiwan." Depending on whatever assumptions China makes those weather windows are not a limiting factor, I imagine.
Is the next launch of the X-37B its last? What follows it? Something without an X designation? Maybe the tests weren't just for the payloads.
I partially agree: "I give the administration credit for some of the basing and access agreements they’ve gotten with the Philippines and with Japan in recent years. It did seem like under the previous administration, the Philippines was sliding out of our orbit or the alliance was weakening, and they were trending more toward the Chinese Communist Party." The previous president of the Philippines was problematic in that regard. But yes, the new opportunity was seized.
Next year is supposed to be a big one for the Army setting the foundation for Guam's missile defense.
If Russia is starting on a big rearmament campaign that threatens Europe, keeping the Ukrainians on the line to tie down lots of Russian military capability is vital for NATO defense efforts.
Army ISR planes are a reminder that the Air Force doesn't provide all air support to the Army: "The U.S. Army’s newest spy planes have now logged nearly 1,000 sorties in the Europe and Indo-Pacific theaters and two more demonstrator aircraft are expected to deploy in 2024[.]" Maybe that Army role should expand. I'd be happy if the Air Force provided the support from the air the Army needs. But ... .
Apparently, the Tuberville hold on military promotions is largely "resolved" because Congress will remove language in the National Defense Authorization Act that prohibits the military from using funds for abortions. As I said, change the law if you want the military to do that. But this doesn't remove my alarm that the military spent so much time defying the law as written. As I learned early in my Army training, I had an obligation to obey lawful orders. Has that changed? Shouldn't this alarm all of us?
About those torpedo defenses: "In essence, a torpedo attack from a submarine hasn't changed much since World War II. You get in reasonably close, often within three kilometers, and you launch the torpedo. This cuts down the time one has to deal with the incoming threat." Could ASurROC improve torpedo attacks?
Electronic warfare was something I had assumed Russia was good at but didn't see in early war reporting: "In recent months, the Russian military has stepped up its use of the electromagnetic spectrum, executing advanced electronic warfare tactics to disrupt, deny and/or degrade Ukrainian drones and other systems. Russia has demonstrated an ability to intercept and decrypt tactical communications in real time—capabilities that Ukrainian military leaders say are slowing their counteroffensive."
Aim high? "Despite lowering qualification standards, it cannot attract enough recruits to fill its ranks. The size and serviceability of its combat aircraft are at all-time lows. Truncated training has weakened pilot readiness." Garbage in, garbage out. I pray our enemies are worse.
Oh? "Saudi Arabia may pivot to ramping up production to flush the market with a flood of supply in the first half of 2024." The article says it is aimed at disarming American shale oil expansion. But is Biden really going to do that now? I'd guess the targets are Iran and Russia who rely on higher oil prices. Possibly designed to counter any market jitters over Houthi missile attacks on Red Sea shipping that included oil tankers.
Is the Axis of El Vil sidekick to the Axis of Evil just trying to distract the West from Russia and Iran by claiming huge tracts of Guyana land? It doesn't really seem like seizing the land is something Venezuelans care one bit about. But just in case, America and Latin American countries should be talking to Brazil which seems to have beefed up military forces near the potential invasion area.
It's a useful and unique aircraft but relatively difficult to fly: "The military announced late Wednesday it was grounding all of its Osprey V-22 helicopters, one week after eight Air Force Special Operations Command service members died in a crash off the coast of Japan."
It would be nice to bring in allied ships to help, as we are exploring: "The guided-missile destroyer USS Mason (DDG-87) shot down a drone in the Red Sea on Wednesday, just days after USS Carney (DDG-64) downed three drones launched from Yemen, a defense official confirmed to USNI News."
Well, I'm sure the Marxist group ANSWER is heavily involved and they hate democracy: "Officials at the University of Michigan have canceled votes on two student government referenda regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict, citing “unprecedented” election interference by pro-Palestinian students.
You think you distrust and hate our news media enough. You do not. Tip to Instapundit.
Our government doesn't think enough of their participation ribbon-informed input to pay them. Why should it listen to them on foreign policy? I say tell them to clear out their storage cubbies, escort them out, and point them in the direction of CAIR if they want to try their luck with an employer more sympathetic to their solutions to finally solve the problem they see.
I suppose there is a case for "in for a penny, in for a pound" as long as Hamas chose war in Gaza: "Despite increasing pressure from the U.S. to rein in the war in Gaza, Israel’s defense minister is now suggesting his forces could soon open a northern second front to push Iran-backed Hezbollah back from the Lebanese border." And this reflects what I've said about the impossibility of relying on Iron Dome to protect Israel from Hezbollah's large rocket arsenal. I suspect this is just a warning for Hezbollah to stay out of the war against Hamas.
Guyana's pucker factor is understandably redlining: "The United States announced joint military flight drills in Guyana on Thursday as soaring tensions over a contested oil-rich region with neighbor Venezuela prompted the UN Security Council to call an urgent meeting." Brazil does not want Venezuela to invade Guyana, either. Tip to Instapundit.
China's navy now has access to a Cambodian naval base.
Ukraine has used USVs as an A2/AD (anti-access/area denial) force to deny Russia's navy free access to the western side of the Black Sea, including Crimea. Which is useful. But it isn't sea control around Crimea that Ukraine can exploit.
Ships will be damaged in war: "In response to requests from members of damage control teams, the Navy developed and purchased a new self-contained breathing apparatus that has a thermal imaging heads-up display built into the face mask. Now, every first responder has thermal imaging capability without having to hold a thermal imaging device."
An alternative explanation for Israel's intelligence failure on October 7th. For other issues I've made similar arguments about successfully preempting enemy actions being used by opponents of strong actions as proof there was no enemy threat to begin with. So I'm sure it is part of the explanation.
WTAF? Tip to Instapundit.
Maduro's two-minute hate against Guyana seems to have failed. Will that inhibit his aggressive intent?
By all means avoid happy talk and pay attention to AUKUS implementation problems, but I find it hard to comprehend that it is beyond the ability of three advanced economies to collaborate on nuclear-powered attack submarines.
Germany announced a new military aid package for Ukraine.
Japan announced economic aid for Ukraine.
Ukraine will be able to produce American 155mm artillery shells.
The murderers and rapists are outraged? "A senior Hamas official accused Israeli forces on Friday of carrying out a "heinous crime against innocent civilians" after images of detained Palestinian men stripped to their underwear in Gaza circulated on social media." Non-morons know stripping them was vital to preclude hidden weapons or explosives. Non-morons also know none will be raped like victims of the October 7th Hamas raping and pillaging invasion. Photographing them may be a violation of the rules of war. But that's a jaywalking level of violation if it is.
I'm looking forward to defending myself against any leftist accusation by explaining my decisions must be "context-dependent". Tip to Instapundit.
The Army has its first replacement for ATACMS: "The U.S. Army has taken delivery of the first Precision Strike Missiles that will begin replacing the legacy Army Tactical Missile System, according to a Dec. 8 service announcement." Will delivery free up ATACMS for Ukraine? I own a tiny amount of Lockheed stock.
The price of media "access" to the evil people in the world. With a call back to CNN's infamous admission about reporting in Saddam's Iraq. Her admission is better late than never. Sadly, we all know it won't spread. Also, I'd like to note her former confusion about the Hamas "political wing" that was of course ignorant of what the "military" wing did. Could the American government, I've asked in the past, profess ignorance of what our "military" wing was doing abroad when it bombed enemy terrorists? Would everyone shrug and say, "Waddayagonnado"?
Not every hate crime is fabricated, of course. But in different circumstances this would be in the dictionary illustrating "false flag", no?
Russia adapts to sanctions to smuggle oil exports through NATO's lake. Sanctions are a campaign of move and counter-move.
A new sniper distance record as the opening to a discussion about sniper developments. It's not all about drones inside Ukraine. I'd think snipers would be a prime Ukrainian tactic along the Russia-Ukraine border that Russia seems to be paying more attention to with low-level operations.
The foundation of voter fraud. To be fair, WDC is cleaning it up now and CA and IL promise to. Tip to Instapundit.
This attack by Iran-backed militias may require a direct strike on Iran: "A rocket attack on the sprawling U.S. Embassy in Baghdad caused minor damage but no casualties on Friday morning, U.S. and Iraqi officials said." Although I admit that it might be local pro-Hamas actors trying to drag Iran into the war in Gaza. Retaliation may need to be more subtle. Still, carpet bombing this region in Iraq might do some good.
Shining a light on China's subliminal war: "The Philippines condemned China's 'illegal and aggressive actions' in the South China Sea on Saturday, saying its coast guard had fired water cannon at a Philippine fisheries bureau vessel conducting a regular resupply mission."
Related new where China claims territory: "The Chinese military on Wednesday said its warplanes shadowed a U.S. Navy surveillance aircraft as it flew over the Taiwan Strait[.]"
Bulgaria will send 100 older-style armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.
And now for something completely different:
You think you distrust and hate the media enough. You do not. I await the media "context-dependent" explanation for the deep difference in their outrage.
Science! "A team of psychologists at Sabanci University, in Turkey, working with a colleague from the University of Sussex, in the U.K., has found that people simply saying 'hello' to strangers they encounter can lead to increased life satisfaction." Or ... and I'm just spitballing here ... happier people are more willing to greet strangers. I think social scientists have real difficulty with cause and effect analysis. Tip to Instapundit.
Army beat Navy in a nail biter football game. Whew.
Hypersonics in Russian service. And this editor note: "The following was recently posted in a different article and so constitutes boring padding. Wait a few more months for when you really need to repost something. I’m working on two more articles, how the Biden administration’s giving of $20+ billion to Iran makes a Persian Gulf oil war inevitable within a few years, to the tune $200+/barrel oil for several years afterwards, and 'Adjusting Attitudes in Gaza'." Heh. I do this too in post or drafts. I use ALL CAPS so I have a better chance of catching them. I don't always ... Feel your pain, guys. And I look forward to the additional articles.
Interesting: "Both Russia and Ukraine have generally been positioning their tanks behind the front line to avoid hitting minefields and being struck by drones and artillery[.] ... Instead, they have been used more as long-range artillery rather than engaging in direct combat." I've read that before. But at Avdiivka recently, the Ukrainians have been using their tanks in direct fire combat.
Iran seems unwilling to fight America but will sacrifice the Houthi as long as Iran remains untouched: "Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Sarea announced that the Houthis will expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea to include all vessels traveling to Israel, regardless of their national affiliation." Iran also seems unwilling to risk its assets in Lebanon and Syria.
