Strategypage discusses India's desperate grasping for modern aircraft capable of flying. I don't know why India losing an ancient Mig-21 to possibly a Pakistani F-16 is anything but fully expected, but if it highlights India's "vintage" weapons and inadequate sustainment base, that's good (if it finally gets India to act):
The aerial clash, the first by the South Asian rivals in nearly five decades, was a rare test for the Indian military — and it left observers a bit dumbfounded. While the challenges faced by the India’s armed forces are no secret, its loss of a plane last week to a country whose military is about half the size and receives a quarter of the funding was still telling.
India’s armed forces are in alarming shape.
If intense warfare broke out tomorrow, India could supply its troops with only 10 days of ammunition, according to government estimates. And 68 percent of the army’s equipment is so old, it is officially considered “vintage.”
Strategypage looks at the Lockheed Martin F-21--the designation for the latest version of the F-16 being offered to India (I own a tiny amount of their stock, I should note)--as India continues to flail in their fighter purchase decision. I noted this in a previous weekend data dump: "Lockheed Martin is offering India an updated F-16 with a marketing spin by calling it the F-21."
The fighter issue is simply the most obvious symptom of the underlying disease. In 2011 I called a new fighter choice the most important defense decision India would make in the decade. India is running out of this decade before they run out of threats.
We'll see if a near-war with Pakistan gives India a sense of urgency. More on the "wobbly" process that keeps India from protecting itself from the China threat.
India can survive this fighter decision failure if they can use mass to overwhelm Pakistan, but it is a different case altogether if the foe is larger and better equipped China:
Besides the air-battle revealing India’s continued need to upgrade its fleet of fighter and fighter-bombers, it also brings to fore the central issue facing the Indian Air Force (IAF): how is it placed to handle a potential war with Pakistan and a two-front war with Pakistan and China? Evaluating the capabilities and constraints of the PAF and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) indicates that the key factor determining the IAF’s relative preparedness for a war with Pakistan is modernization — but for a two-front war with China and Pakistan, the IAF also has to correctly anticipate China’s level of involvement.
Although I imagine China's base capacity in Tibet is limited even if China didn't have other potential threats to dilute their commitment to a war against India.
I won't say America has a world-class procurement process (Exhibit A). But it is far less bad. We should offer our help to India to fix their system. If they can. India doesn't have much time left to make the most important defense (weapon) decision of this decade in this decade.
