Yes, America has problems with China and Russia. But talk about them separately. We don't want to make them think they are allies:
Recently, distinguished analysts argued that the United States should drive a wedge in the Chinese-Russian entente, bringing Moscow over to Washington’s side in its emerging great-power conflict with Beijing.
But according to a recent study, it is shared apprehension about Washington that is bringing Beijing and Moscow together.
This is precisely why Chinese-Russian cooperation isn't worth getting too worked up over. If Trump attempts to marginalize both these former Cold War allies, the United States could inadvertently help cement their common cause, jeopardizing its global position.
We can't turn China into an ally against Russia. We did that in the latter part of the Cold War. But that was when China was weak and the then-Soviet Union posed a real threat to China. Now China is far stronger than Russia in the Far East and economically. Assuming Russia's nukes still work, Russia still has a large nuclear advantage over China.
Besides, because China is our major concern and because Europe is perfectly capable of building a defense force capable of containing Russia, it makes no sense to strengthen China in a renewed alliance against Russia.
And even if it makes sense for NATO and Russia to have a unified position opposing China, Russia is certainly not going to respond to any overtures to turn against China (back to the first link):
For many in Russia, China is an attractive export market and a source of cheap credit, large-scale investment, and advanced technologies. Others fear China will dominate Russia politically and economically, beginning with its expanding border presence and investment in Siberia and other remote far eastern territories.
As I've noted, Russia's hostility to NATO makes more sense if you see it as disguising their appeasement of the far stronger China to protect Russia's Far East from China's claims to reverse the last reminders of a "century of humiliation."
And worse for Russia, while detente with NATO would allow Russia to consider their European territory as a safe rear area when confronting China, NATO will be of no help against China directly. Despite their paranoia, Russians surely recognize that a NATO that has been reluctant to defend new NATO states in the east will not extend its defensive shield all the way to the Amur River.
So oppose China. And oppose Russia. But don't publicly talk like they are allies. Instead work quietly to sow divisions in a Chinese-Russian relationship that has a lot of problems to overcome before being an alliance that can harm America and our allies.
With luck and quiet work, they'll be happy to glare at each other as the more dangerous close threat as they have in the past.
