Saturday, July 18, 2026

Phase IX of the Iraq War Rages

Iran's nefarious influence inside Iraq could be weakened and broken if we don't lose focus.

The regional war that Iran proxy Hamas started in 2023 that expanded into the Iran War of 2026 has weakened Iran's influence in Iraq, giving America and Iraq an opportunity to suppress that dangerous influence even more

The regional war has presented Iraq’s prime minister, al-Zaidi, with the strongest opportunity yet to reassert state authority over the PMF, an objective that had eluded every prime minister since the founding of the current Shiite-dominated political system in 2003. Unlike his predecessors, al-Zaidi enjoys a rare convergence of interests in which many militia leaders have become invested in Iraq’s political and economic stability, while facing unprecedented pressure from Washington to dismantle Iranian-backed armed groups. His political standing has been strengthened by explicit U.S. backing for his premiership, which was widely understood to be contingent on meaningful progress toward disarming the militias. These favorable conditions have already produced tangible steps toward integrating or demobilizing several major factions, suggesting that Baghdad may finally have an opportunity to weaken one of the principal pillars of Iranian influence in Iraq.

I've droned on quite a bit over the years about what I called Phase IX of the Iraq War that turned to defeating Iran's dangerous influence in Iraq. Lose this phase and prior victories would be undone. Defeating the Popular Mobilization Force militias that Iran sponsored after ISIL rose up inside Iraq has been a key means to weakening Iran. Success will deepen American-Iraqi ties:

Iraq and the U.S. have an opportunity to build a practical partnership centered on economic development, energy security and regional stability.

Although notwithstanding Iran's continued influence, I still consider the Iraq War to have been a fragile if unrecognized success. So far. We must weaken Iran while we can and secure Iraq. ISW has more on this struggle's latest incentive to Iraq to break the militias. Fingers crossed about what the new Iraqi prime minister can achieve after his meetings in Washington, D.C.

Defeating Iran cuts a Gordian Knot that makes many problems easier to resolve.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here

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