Easy there, sir, don't get carried away:
The U.S.-led NATO alliance is paying too little attention to the threat posed by Russia in the Black Sea, which Moscow sees as a launchpad into the wider region, said a report co-authored by the former head of U.S. Army Europe.
“What was once a Russian naval backwater is now the centerpiece of Moscow’s power projection into the Mediterranean … It is evidently more willing to use force in the Black Sea region than anywhere else along the Eastern Flank,” retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges said in the report released Tuesday by the Center for European Policy Analysis.
I'm all for having the ability to launch powerful missile and air strikes at Russian-occupied Crimea bases. To be fair, in details the proposal actually makes sense:
Unmanned maritime systems and ground-based systems could be based in Romania, including anti-ship missiles, drones and rotary wing attack aircraft, and used to bolster NATO defenses in the western Black Sea, the report said.
It also calls for a Black Sea Maritime Policing Mission to be established for a year-round NATO naval presence.
Yes, a peacetime presences would be good so the Russians don't get the idea that it is their lake.
But I think American land-based air power is sufficient to support our allies there. But I'd prefer a more offensive anti-access/area denial angle.
What are the Russians going to do if Turkey isn't their ally who opens the Turkish straits to Russian warships? And in the worst case, if we mine the approaches to the Turkish straits in the Black Sea and post some submarines and aircraft/missiles in the Aegean Sea, what exactly are the Russians going to do during a war even if they manage to dominate the Black Sea?
Honestly, what could Russia achieve even if their rotting fleet manages to reach the Mediterranean Sea?
And if we have sufficient air defense assets in Romania and Bulgaria what will Russia do in the eastern Balkans? Invade?
Let the Russians spread out their already inadequate land, sea, and air power. The Black Sea is an economy-of-force front. NATO needs to focus on the Baltic Sea and the Suwalki Gap--and don't forget Belarus, which is probably the most important territory in Europe today.
Our best defense of the Black Sea region involves making sure Ukraine is strong enough to fight Russia for the north shore of the sea. Heck, make sure Ukraine can bomb and mine Crimean bases and ports, as I mentioned in this post, would be a good idea. And trying to ease Turkey back into NATO's good graces seals off the Russians nicely.
