Only If Submarine Warfare is to Be Redefined as "Stupid"

If a Russian sub with intercontinental nuclear torpedoes sees production, I'll be shocked. Because Russians aren't that stupid. Paranoid, sure. But not that stupid. And if they do produce it as part of their nuclear deterrent, that raises an interesting question about their existing nuclear deterrent.

Really?

In a move that harks back to the Cold War, the Russian Navy is quietly developing a whole new category of submarines, and their unique capabilities could influence the nature of undersea warfare. The first of the new type, Khabarovsk, is expected to be launched this month. In my view, this is likely to be the defining submarine of the 2020s because it represents a novel and difficult adversary.

Other navies are unlikely to emulate it, but they will want to counter it. The underwater game of cat and mouse where U.S. Navy hunter-killer submarines stalk the Russians could be reinvigorated. But these new targets are not ballistic missile subs. Khabarovsk is instead designed to be armed with the gigantic Poseidon nuclear drone-torpedoes.

Excuse me if I don't wet my pants in fear. Laughter, perhaps. But fear? I doubt the Russians will waste money on this nuclear torpedo and a submarine to carry them. Why would they when a nuclear attack on America whether by torpedo or missile will trigger American nuclear retaliation?

I can't see our military getting worked up into wasting money on this small addition--if it works--to Russia's large nuclear arsenal.

And if they do build this, what does it say about the reliability of Russia's large ICBM force that supposedly deters American nuclear attack now?

Russia's long-range missiles are eroding but they will likely be a deterrent because we can't really know how reliable they are and just thinking a 50% success rate exists still means that is a lethal threat.

But Russia, which will know the real state of their nukes (one assumes), isn't counting on that uncertainty and seems to be emphasizing shorter-range missiles that are more reliable because they are simpler. And relying on those weapons to the point of violating the INF treaty.

Are the Russian ICBMs in worse shape than even I wonder about? Is Russia's long-range nuclear deterrent so bad that they have to boast about giant long-range nuclear torpedoes?

Putin better be careful. If he launches Poseidon, we'll have but one option left:



Checkmate.