Monday, June 08, 2020

The Russian Nuclear Deterrent Staggers On

Russia is finally getting their thin sea-based nuclear deterrent in order:

The Russian Navy has made a mess of its SSBN force and has done slightly better developing new SLBMs. This is all about what kind of SSBN force Russia will have in the future and what those SSBNs will be capable of. At the moment the answers seem to be “diminished” and “not much”.

Russia is distracted by impulses to save the Soviet blue water fleet. Russia has a massive land border to defend that should take priority over anything afloat other than SSBNs for a survivable nuclear deterrent and naval forces to protect the SSBNs:

Russia needs SSBNs for a survivable nuclear deterrent; coastal vessels and SSNs to secure SSBN bastions in the Sea of Okhosk and the Barents Sea; other coastal vessels to protect their coasts from enemy navies in the Sea of Japan, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, and Caspian Sea; perhaps a few larger ships for show-the-flag operations; and a solid determination not to waste resources on more than that which are more needed for air and ground power to defend their long border.

Honestly, as long as Russia is pointlessly hostile to the West, I'd rather Russia waste resources on spectacular aircraft carriers.

The Borei-class SSBNs may be really important for maintaining deterrence depending on how reliable their ICBMs truly are.