America is serious about pushing Germany to rearm:
Donald Trump’s German troop reduction has been a long time coming and reflects three instincts at the heart of his sweep to power in 2016 and three-and-a-half years as US president.
Losing the American troops and their families will be a hit to the locations in Germany that benefited from their spending and base-related local spending.
But that doesn't mean that Germany's in particular or NATO's defenses in general will be hurt by this removal. It still isn't clear to me whether the troops are returning to the continental United States or will be earmarked to Poland or other points in the east. Germany is not the only country in NATO Europe, as I've noted.
And yes, I fully understand that Germany's deficiency is not in paying a bill owed but in meeting NATO defense spending agreements on time. Trump's wording is short hand for the issue. The deadline is coming up but Germany is putting off their meeting of the goal by many years beyond the deadline despite having the strongest economy in Europe.
The Germans may feel that their limited military in a NATO defense in the east can hold off the Russians long enough to allow Germany to react and prepare for being on the front line.
And the Germans also know there are limits to America's withdrawal from Europe if America is to defend American interests in Europe--which includes being a staging area for the arc of crisis from West Africa to Afghanistan--rather than just thinking of this as an issue of America defending Europe.
Remember, for more than a century America has fought to prevent a hostile power from gaining control of the demographic, scientific, economic, and military potential of the continent. Even if Germany disarmed completely, we'd have a vital interest in defending Europe.
And who knows? Maybe the Germans, rather than being a new defender of Western values as some in America claim Germany under Merkel is, are as much of a danger to peace and democracy in Europe as the Germans sometimes claim they are.
UPDATE: For all I complain about the Germans and the French, they are allies. Not very good ones sometimes and often too annoying to believe--but allies.
I often say that Iraq is a win because you have to compare the imperfect ally we have there now against the enemy we used to have.
Everything is always relative.
UPDATE: Defending Europe is in America's interest. But again, we still don't know if the reduction in Germany is going to happen and if that happens we don't know where the troops will go. Will it be back to the United States or will it be to other places in Europe?
UPDATE: Wait. What?
Poland finds itself in a bind. For the past two years, Warsaw has lobbied Washington for an increase in American troop presence on its territory. It now appears likely that it will get at least some of what it wants, but that could be at the expense of America’s presence in Germany. Should that happen, Warsaw would find itself at odds with its economically powerful neighbor, a circumstance that — given the tragic history of German-Polish relations — the Polish government wishes to avoid.
Poland literally stands in the way of a Russian invasion of Germany--which doesn't pull its weight in NATO--and Poland has to worry about angering Russia and Germany by accepting more American troops? The Germans will be annoyed at Poland if America moves troops from Germany to Poland?
Is Poland supposed to be worried about another German-Russian partition of Poland? WTF? Maybe the Germans are as much of a danger to peace in Europa as the Germans sometimes say they are.
