This is bad news for the good guys:
The growing power gap between the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) is stark and will widen at an accelerated pace. China already boasts the largest navy in the world with more than 300 ships and submarines. By comparison, the JMSDF’s naval strength in 2019 included four light helicopter carriers, two cruisers, 34 destroyers, 11 frigates, three amphibious assault ships, six fast-attack missile boats, and 21 submarines. By 2030, the PLAN could have more than 450 ships and close to 110 submarines while the JMSDF will likely not be much larger than it is today.
The quantitative measures back this and any presumed Japanese qualitative advantage is questionable.
This is a change from my view eight years ago when I believed Japan still had an edge.
Factors that help Japan include:
--Land-based air and missile power on Japan if the PLAN surges toward Japan.
--China's inability to mass all of their naval power against Japan.
--South Korean air and naval power.
--American air and naval power.
--Crew skill, although that should be examined closely so it doesn't become a ritual incantation to ignore the quantifiable measures.
This doesn't make the trend any less real or any less of a problem. If the trends continue the Chinese could nullify the factors that help Japan.
In the long run Japan needs more air and naval power. In the short run the Japanese need land-based anti-ship missiles and naval mine laying capabilities.
And this of course demonstrates why America has to keep our allies on the line facing China. America and Japan combined can crush the Chinese navy. We don't want China to divide and conquer all the individual states that reject Chinese dominance.
