Russia has been trying, since the late 1990s, to build replacements for Cold War era warships. Most of these have reached the end of their useful lives and many of them, while still listed as in service, rarely, if ever, seem to leave port. Russian admirals have been aware of the fact that they won't have much of a navy by the 2020s unless these older ships are replaced. The problem is that the older ships cannot be easily or cheaply refurbished or upgraded because that would cost more than buying new ones, These older ships are not just falling apart, but because there was not any money available right after the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, there were few repairs and no upgrades during the 1990s.
Even the priority of submarines is faltering:
Submarines were one ship type that got priority for new construction even in the 1990s but that has now slowed down. This is critical when it comes to building replacements for the last Cold War class of SSBNs (Nuclear ballistic missile subs) were all completed in the 1980s. These have been quietly retired or “semi-retired” (only going to sea for training). Priority was put on building eight new Borei class SSBNs. These were delayed and the first one did not enter service until 2013. There are now four in service but construction on the other four has been stopped. Some of these are half built but there is simply no money to finish them now. So the SSBN fleet is in danger of shrinking to four subs for a while, maybe a long while.
Russia is a land power. With huge land borders. With a rising China with land claims on Russian territory in the Far East and ambitions in the former Soviet states in Central Asia:
Russia continues to pretend NATO is a military threat while ignoring the growing Chinese threat to retake the Far East territory that Russia grabbed from China in the 19th century.
A fleet makes no sense for Russia:
Russia needs SSBNs for a survivable nuclear deterrent; coastal vessels and SSNs to secure SSBN bastions in the Sea of Okhosk and the Barents Sea; other coastal vessels to protect their coasts from enemy navies in the Sea of Japan, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, and Caspian Sea; perhaps a few larger ships for show-the-flag operations; and a solid determination not to waste resources on more than that which are more needed for air and ground power to defend their long border.
It isn't just that Russia won't meet their goals for ships and subs, but that Russia is wasting money on trying to achieve those goals at the expense of real defense objectives.
Of course, fixating on NATO in and around Poland makes no sense. Trying to create military power to control Poland and to have a blue water fleet are two of the three traditional sources of Russian weakness, after all.
UPDATE: Dead cat bounce:
Russia has finally completed the refurbishment of one of its oldest large surface warships, the 12,000 ton Moskva. This was the first of the Slava class cruisers and entered service in 1982. ...
At the moment one Slava is based in the Baltic, one in the Black Sea (with frequent trips to the Mediterranean) and the third in the Pacific.
I'm sure they look marvelous.
