Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Protect the Win

Should America remain in Iraq? The mistake of leaving in 2011 and our return in 2014 to wage Iraq War 2.0 seems to make the answer obvious: yes. From a RAND study:

More specifically, the authors recommend that the United States continue to actively support the development of stability and democracy in Iraq; select optimal risk-benefit balance between no withdrawal and limited withdrawal; maintain an enduring advisory mission to help develop Iraq's security forces; and help the Iraqi military improve civil-military relations over time.

I don't think we should reduce our already small footprint. We need to bolster rule of law in the government and security forces, keep training Iraqi security forces, reduce Iranian influence, protect the Kurds and keep them from causing trouble, keep Iraqi forces in the fight against Sunni jihadis, directly attack jihadis, and be capable of holding our positions and attacking hostile forces that threaten our troops if necessary.

Much of this phase of the Iraq War will not be American-led combat missions or even combat at all. But we must wage this fight alongside our Iraqi allies.

On that score, Iraqi Shias are losing their misconceptions about their fellow Shias:

Iraqis are aware of these developments in Lebanon and Katab Hezbollah is accused of working for Iran to achieve Iranian control over Iraq. The head of Katab Hezbollah was killed along with Quds commander Qassem Soleimani back in January. Now the United States is offering a $10 million reward for information about the location of Mohammad Kawtharani, the senior Lebanese Hezbollah in Iraq, where he coordinates Iranian support for and control of Katab Hezbollah. More and more Iraqis are turning against Iran-backed groups in Iraq, where local media are less intimidated by pro-Iran militias and are openly mocking things like the Iranian practice of creating fictitious pro-Iran militia via the Internet. This is typical Iranian propaganda and once had a large following in Iraq. As Iran uses more violence in its efforts to gain control over Iraq, more Iraqis lose their long-held illusions about Iranian goals in Iraq. The growing popular anger in Iran against the religious dictatorship also sends a message to Iraqis that even Iranians don’t trust or like the Iranian government. Both Iranians and Iraqis are defying the Iranian government thugs in both countries and tearing down or defacing posters and billboards promoting the Iranian government and its policies. In Iraqi many local governments are banning pro-Iran posters.

And speaking of the fictitious pro-Iran militias, don't get too worked up over Iran's virtual resistance and believe it is real:

Several new Shia militias have emerged in Iraq since March that claim to have targeted American forces and American-contracted companies. Most of these groups, however, have produced claims with scare, inconsistent, or incorrect details – and little to no visual evidence to corroborate them.

This influx in supposed militias inside Iraq is likely a propaganda game being played by Iran and its allies to create political cover for anti-American activities in the country for more established groups. It also may serve to create a narrative of a far-reaching movement that is opposed to the presence of American troops.

So-called groups like “The People of the Cave,” “The Fist of Guidance,” and “Revenge of Muhandis Brigade” are mentioned. What, no "Mother of Dragons?" (NSFW)

The idea that the left has pushed that overthrowing Saddam was a gift to Iran (and that complaint from the left was pre-Iran nuclear deal Iran worship) was purely nonsense. Naturally we had to resist Iran in Iraq after destroying the Saddam regime. Pulling American troops out of Iraq in 2011 gave Iran a tremendous opportunity to expand their influence when ISIL rose up in 2014. But now, finally, we are able to push back harder. Let's not blow it.

Some American missions can be achieved by forces based outside of Iraq, but there is only so much we can do to replace boots on the ground without risking a defeat in this long win.