I'm not so sure if I want to solve the Syria problem now when it will rescue our enemies Assad, Russia, Iran, and our Blacksheep ally Erdogan's Turkey. And solving their problems will just make the Kurds' problems expand. We have a humanitarian motive, of course, but there are limits to how much we can care about Syrians when our enemies don't care and will exploit our caring for their own ends at our expense.
But this part is a good assessment of Russia's adventure in Syria:
There is no foreseeable dividend for Russia in Syria. It is instead a financial drain, a sinkhole, at a time when falling oil prices and COVID-19 have set back the Russian economy.
I haven't been impressed with Putin's victory there.
When Russia intervened I didn't think he could get much of value and my goal was to make sure he paid a price without the West helping reduce the cost:
So don't panic that Russians are in Syria. If Russia gets a [base] deal [either] to save an Alawite state in the west or to regain control of Syria, Russia will get their bases near the coast. So any worries that Russian troops will get Russia a base if we don't cooperate with Putin are nonsense. Cooperating with Russia will just get Russia the bases without forcing Russia to pay a price for intervention.
Russia does not want to fight for Assad. Putin wants to save Assad as cheaply as possible so he can get back to picking apart eastern Ukraine while consolidating the conquest of Crimea (and then Belarus will be in Putin's crosshairs, prior to focusing on the Baltic states). Our cooperation is key to letting Russia win in Syria on the cheap.
Don't fall for Putin's ploy. Bid him good luck and tell him to have fun storming the castle.
And as the armed opposition fell apart, I wrote:
The Russians bought a pile of trouble to get bases in the Mediterranean Sea region. I don't understand the point of Russia expending effort to get a foothold in Syria. I don't think that it does them any good other than to remind them of their Soviet glory days. And I really don't see the point of Russia's escalating role in eastern Syria.
Russia got a sugar rush from their Syria intervention that will wear off as the grind of dealing with that Hell Hole continues to suck resources from Russia. Putin will need another short and glorious war to restore the rush. And one day the short and glorious war will turn out very obviously badly for Russia.
The naval and air bases in Syria make no sense for a weakened Russia whose blue water fleet is fading away.
