That rising sentiment does not bode well for peace in Asia:
Beijing is trying to calm rising nationalist sentiment after a growing chorus of voices called for China to take advantage of the Covid-19 pandemic by invading Taiwan.
A number of commentators on social media have called for the island to be reunified by force – something Beijing has never ruled out – but some analysts say the authorities want to play a longer game and are now trying to cool the “nationalist fever”.
China insists that Taiwan is part of China so calming nationalist sentiment is not the same as rejecting it--only managing the timing when such sentiment will be useful to stoke.
Remember, as communist ideology fades, basing the CCP's monopoly on power on nationalism is the alternative:
China has stoked xenophobic nationalism to replace the economic socialism to motivate their people to accept exclusive communist rule. What happens when that works too well for the Chinese Communist Party to contain?
But the sources of that rising sentiment may have an inflated view of Chinese power pushing them toward war:
Retired Army general Keane doesn't think the Chinese ruling party wants war or military confrontation, but "I will say this: there are members of the [People's Liberation Army] -- their military -- that have a lot of hubris because they have a huge military capability that they never had." I've mentioned that worry before.
My worry about that aspect goes back.
I've long recognized the justification for invasion that the anti-secession law provides the CCP and have long thought China will invade Taiwan when they feel the moment is right.
Yeah, I was way off on the timing from the perspective of an individual life, although perhaps not in the historical sweep of time.
And the moment could be when the CCP feels calming the calls for invasion pose a threat to CCP rule from elements within the population or PLA that represent the growing chorus to invade.
I don't think we can safely judge why China might rationally invade or even who might start the war.
The Taiwanese need to spend more on defense and get psyched up to defend themselves.
Why anyone on Taiwan can sleep peacefully at night is beyond me.
