So Who Gets to Order the PLA into Action?

On the question of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, it is often said that the communist rulers of China won't want to risk upsetting their economy by invading Taiwan.

At best this is a debatable point. But even if you could establish with reasonable certainty that the CCP does not want to risk the effects of disrupting their economy by going to war, that calculation could change with new circumstances. If China's economy suffers a recession or depression in peacetime, a war might distract the people from economic woes and provide an excuse to clamp down on dissent.

But even this doesn't account for every way China might decide to launch a war. These possibilities, of course, assume that China is a unitary actor and that all organs of power obey the communist party leadership.

Is it really safe to assume this? Strategypage notes how the Chinese military is a corrupt political force itself and an interest group that looks after itself. The post notes that as a result:

So for the next decade or so, expect to see some strange things going on between the government and the generals.

As the Chinese civilians try to rein in the corrupt military, might the military feel so threatened that they initiate a war over Taiwan to preserve their privileges and monetary benefits by raising the need for and prestige of the military?

Of course, preparations for a full blown blitz invasion could not be conducted without attracting the attention of the leadership. So any war initiated under this scenario would likely be limited initially, counting on the Chinese leadership to be too afraid to cancel the escalating PLA attacks on Taiwan. This means that the pace of the invasion would allow the US time to intervene effectively.

Why then would the PLA invade under these circumstances, knowing we'd have time to intervene? Perhaps because they don't believe we would intervene even with time; or because they believe we are too casualty averse to fight them if hit hard enough. Or maybe even because they simply don't see a better choice than risking war and defeat.

Remember, when it comes to a Chinese decision to initiate war over Taiwan, they will decide what is rational--not us. And we may not even know who "they" really are.