Far from a rejuvenated hegemon poised to reshape the global economy, Xi’s China has been exposed as a giant with feet of clay.
The geostrategic implications are difficult to exaggerate. In the 40 years since Deng Xiaoping began to lead China out of the Maoist dark ages, the country has achieved unprecedented economic growth and development. But that progress would have been impossible – or, at least, much slower – were it not for China’s policy of maintaining a cooperative relationship with the US. Xi has upended that policy during his tenure, not least with his increasingly aggressive actions in the South China Sea.
These developments point to a straightforward conclusion: China is headed in the wrong direction. This is not lost on China’s elites, whose frustration is palpable – and rising.
Yet, despite rumors of pushback against his power by retired elderly leaders, Xi is unlikely to be overthrown.
I don't see such resistance to Xi in such a huge country as a sign that Xi doesn't effectively control China's governing apparatus. The mountains are high and the emperor is far--even with virtual closeness using Dystopian State 2.0 technology. So there is bound to be some slippage.
And it has long been my position that there is no need to panic over China's rise given their problems and our strengths. Maybe they pass us by. But maybe not and maybe not for good.
But my biggest worry is that Chinese nationalists proud of how far they've come from their weakness that made China a punching bag for distant Western powers (and Japan), will dangerously overstate how strong China really is:
China is a danger because their chest is swelling over their regained military stature. And while their actual power will help decide the outcome of a war, their beliefs about their power will help decide whether they start a war.
I liken it to new soldiers just out of boot camp. You enter probably out of shape and a pure civilian. You endure and come out part of the mean green fighting machine, with new muscles and the new skills of killing planted in you. You think you are a bad-ass SEAL Team 6-level killing machine in your still-crisp BDUs (or whatever they are called now).
But you are not a killing machine. You aren't even a cog in the killing machine. You are just the first rough stamping of a cog that will eventually be sanded and polished into a part of the killing machine. I remember our drill sergeants telling us that we need to avoid being full of ourselves when we leave basic training and move on to a new base or go back on the block. We are stronger than when we arrived. Do not mistake that for being stronger than other people, they warned. If we do, we'll get our butts kicked.
China has gotten out of world power basic training. Let's hope they don't throw a punch before they realize how much farther that they need to go to be actually powerful.
Even better, maybe China will come to realize how much advantage they have gained from tying in to the America-designed system and will understand they should be a status quo power lest they kill the goose that lays the Golden eggs for China.
Surely, that level of integration and prosperity should be the core interest of China, no?
I've read that Chinese economists are well aware of the economic problems that could derail China's rise; while Chinese foreign policy and military types tend to think China has no economic problems.
Maybe American foreign policy for China should include hosting lots of conferences that bring Chinese economists together with Chinese foreign policy and military leaders.
