The Syrian regime enjoys the momentum of military successes. Damascus clearly understands that in order to make the triumph complete, there needs to be the final spurt on Idlib. The Baath Party leadership sees the latest victories in eastern Ghouta, eastern Qalamoun, Homs, most of Daraa and Quneitra as severely demoralizing for opposition forces in Idlib. Many in the opposition are already seeking opportunities to leave the country fearing the northwest of Syria will soon end up under Assad’s control. Hence, given the speed with which the opposition militants are dealt with in the south of Syria, Russia and Syria would want to take advantage of this momentum. With no further operative delay, they would begin the operation as soon as most combat-capable units — especially the Tiger forces and the 4th tank division — arrive at this front.
Syria and its allies apparently don’t think much of the Turkish observation points in the area, and Turkey is seemingly not ruling out the possibility of an offensive in Idlib and has been fortifying its observation points with cement walls.
Idlib looms over core Alawite areas near the coast, which rebels form Idlib once threatened. The rebellion is reduced enough that Assad's limited force certainly have the capacity to carry out the offensive without the Iranian-suppled shock troops (Hezbollah and the Shia foreign legion) and without Russian air support.
Will Russia prevent Assad from attacking to maintain better Russian-Turkish relations yet perhaps risk Assad denying Russia bases as punishment for blocking Assad?
Will Iran go along with leaving the remaining rebels in place to justify their presence in Syria?
Will Turkey restrain the rebels to stay Assad's hand, which would require more Turkish troops inside Syria to maintain their buffer zone?
Heck, would Turkey decide to make good on their early civil war ultimatum to Assad, which would require a multi-division (if not multi-corps) invasion?
Or would Turkey side with Assad to wipe out the autonomous Kurdish region in the northeast and risk conflict with America?
I seriously doubt Turkey would try to drive on Damascus, but who knows?
But Russia and Turkey do have things to discuss as the war in the west is being won by Assad.
UPDATE: More:
With uncertainty in Syria growing for Ankara, the only certainty appears to be that Idlib has the potential to cause a big headache for Turkey.
It seems highly likely that Assad will drive into Idlib, the rebels won't be able to stop them, and that Turkey's troops could very well find themselves bypassed and requiring Syrian permission to get supplies and eventually evacuate back to Turkey.
Which will end Turkey's anti-Assad position regarding the rebellion, that started with the August 2011 Turkish ultimatum to Assad to stop killing civilians.
UPDATE: Is an Assad offensive into Idlib really unlikely without the approval of Turkey, Russia, and Iran?
Really? Iran and Russia aren't about to punish Assad for attacking if those states want to remain in Syria; and if Turkey resists Assad, Russia and Iran will help Assad face Turkey.
And is Turkey really going to fight a major war against Assad after declining to do so these many years when Assad was weaker and there were local forces to support? Is Turkey really willing to fight Russia and Iran? Is Turkey really willing to abandon their effort against the Kurds to fight this kind of war, and be forces to go to NATO and America for help?
I think Assad will send in forces to begin the reconquest of Idlib province.
