Weekend Data Dump

The 21st century German problem.

I'm almost certain this potential Russian wonder weapon will never be fielded by Russia. Unless China steals the research.

Taiwan's President Tsai said "no one can obliterate Taiwan's existence[.]" But that isn't true. Unless Taiwan spends a lot more on defense, one country will do exactly that one day.

The battle for rule of law continues in Romania. As the protesters recognize, corruption does kill. Fingers crossed for a strong and resilient ally that can resist Russian pressure, eh?

Nigerian troops protest being sent to fight terrorists in the northeast. This does not speak well of the troop discipline or leadership, as well as showing a lack of confidence in national leadership in fighting Boko Haram.

The continuing rifle drama for the Army.

It will be interesting, to say the least, if a code of conduct for the South China Sea agreed to by China and ASEAN members really gives China an effective veto over exercises with American forces in those waters, as China claims.

The US needs a strategy to keep US-flagged commercial ships going in order to make sure we can logistically support US forces abroad. The ships and sailors just aren't there. Do we really want to rely on leasing foreign-flagged ships for too much of this job? The number of US-flagged ships is so small that I didn't think America could rely just on US-flagged container ships as a force pool for modularized auxiliary cruisers. But perhaps a subsidy to make such a force pool, similar to the Civil Reserve Air Fleet for emergency airlift, could prop up this logistical foundation, too.

I seriously hope we are setting up production facilities to duplicate what Turkey now produces for the F-35. Because when we prevent Islamist Turkey from taking delivery of the advanced plane to prevent Russia and China (and Iran) from learning how to defeat the plane, I want Turkey's part of the global supply chain to be replaced without losing a beat. We aren't possibly thinking of trusting Turkey with those planes, are we?

For all the image of a divided country that I suspect appears far worse because of the cesspool of social media, there are hardly any white supremacists to wage an insurgency in America despite the massive "dog whistles" racists are supposedly hearing these days; and the urban insurgency "antifa" thugs--as violent and repulsive as they are in individual incidents--are basically hobbyists uninterested in an actual Revolution as their profession. Really, those losers (who aren't anti-hate as much as differently-hate) have been pretending to "resist" a lot longer than the recent converts to pretend insurgents with bumper stickers. Unclench and relax a little, eh? There aren't enough POS humans on either side to wage a decent cage match. Just do what we do and vote. And show a little tolerance. Okay? We have serious problems abroad without being distracted by the Twitter mobs.

How much of China's economy is smoke and mirrors? In the past I've been skeptical of Chinese growth statistics. But their economy clearly seems to have expanded a great deal, making my skepticism at least partially moot. That still leaves open the possibility that a great deal of expansion is still smoke and mirrors. Of course, even assuming the statistics are all good, I haven't been overly pessimistic about China's threat to America's position in the long run.

Tunisia looks ready to take another baby step since the country stood up in the 2011 Arab Spring.

Iran has problems and the people don't blame America. And other stuff Iran-related.

Hamas violates the rules of war in their terrorism masquerading as protests; and Israel is being condemned for legitimate acts of self defense. Which is what I've been saying.

Yawn. ... Who? Pity the Palestinians--who have wasted the attention spent on them for decades to achieve nothing but death and poverty (except for their corrupt rulers, of course)--were declared Queen of the Victims Prom.

The Russians are apparently a bit of a threat in space.

The British remain mystified about the motive for the weaponized vehicle attack on Parliament.

If you don't like how social media is tightening control of discussions, go back to blogs--like The Dignified Rant that eschews Facebook and Twitter--for your reading pleasure. I've noted that my audience dropped by at least 2/3 once social media became popular. It is discouraging. But I persist. ;-)

Sunni jihadis kill 48 (as of this posting) Shias in Kabul, Afghanistan. I know, I know. The victims clearly deserve it for liberating Iraq from Saddam's brutal rule. What else can cause that kind of hate?

Romania is justifiably worried about Russia. But unless Russia's de facto territory ofTransnistria is built up into a major Russian base and logistics area, as long as Ukraine holds out against Russian aggression, Romania's front line is secure, notwithstanding Romanian worries about Russian threats from the Black Sea. Turkey's control of southern access to the Black Sea and treaty limitations on non-Black Sea states' naval presence complicates NATO's at-sea defenses. I'd like to see land-based anti-ship, anti-aircraft, and naval mine-laying capabilities built up in Romania and Bulgaria. But if a naval presence in required, could NATO build modularized auxiliary cruisers for the Black Sea that might bypass treaty limits?

Poland wants a permanent American military presence in Poland. in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I'm open to stationing an armored brigade in Poland. But I'd rather permanently station American air defenses and logistics personnel there to receive reinforcements, including the placement of prepositioned equipment sets in Poland. Which means fixing whatever is wrong with the land-based Aegis anti-missile system in Poland is kind of important. I'm so old, I remember when Obama canceled the Bush 43 BMD plan because it was argued that Aegis Ashore would be so much more rapidly emplaced.

China is unhappy with the new American defense budget: "China’s commerce, defense and foreign ministries all issued statements slamming the bill’s proposals." Woo hoo! It's a Gordie Howe Hat Trick!

Last week I mentioned the Caspian Sea treaty and wondered if it would help our supply issues in Afghanistan and let us bypass Pakistan. What I didn't think about is that economic integration also helps China with their "New Silk Road" project to extend trade lines through the interior of Asia to Europe.

More on the treaty here. Russia got a lot of what they want, but Iran feels screwed because Russia made deals with the other signatories for their support. Which is nice for driving a wedge between Russia and Iran.

China's economy is vulnerable to pressure; and other China-related issues.

Eastern European NATO is rearming because of Russia and not Trump? Duh. I've long said Russia is NATO's best recruiter. Still, Trump has obviously not been complaining about NATO states making good on defense pledges; and he is clearly pushing NATO's Western European states to rearm faster--as they promised Obama they'd do.

American F-22s are in Europe, where they flew with Norwegian F-35s. As more F-35s enter European service and as more American F-35s are based in Europe, the need to work with the F-22 obviously increases.

A discussion of Turkey's buffer zone in Syria and the local allies who defend it (with related information on why the Southern Front collapsed).

Even loose cannon Duterte is worrying about China more.

The military must determine which personnel have key foreign language skills. I assume the military has a place to start the inquiry. When I enlisted, you had to put down what foreign language skills you have. Luckily they never relied on my minimal residual Russian language skills.

A coordinated car-burning attack across Sweden "in immigrant communities" did not mention culprits, although a link to a similar series of attacks somewhat more helpfully notes that "immigrants" did it. Goddamn those Norwegians and Finns! Remember, they hate the cars!

And now, water. Except for wreckers, hoarders, and terrorists, everything is in short supply in socialist, oil-rich Venezuela. Obviously, Maduro couldn't pour water out of a boot if the instructions were written on the heel--because there is no water.

India will continue to fall behind China in naval air power as long as its dysfunctional military procurement bureaucracy is allowed to continue business as usual. No Chinese plot to undermine India could possibly be as effective. If the Romans ran India they'd order a decimation of the bureaucracy and tell the survivors that they'd audit them again in a year to see how things are going. Because apparently China's increasing advantage in military power isn't enough of a motivation.

That crook and security threat should absolutely be given prison time.

I'm fine with no military parade. But if we have it, it wouldn't mean America is a military dictatorship, or whatever the hysteria of the day said when the topic was raised.

The new Iran Action Group will coordinate action to put pressure on Iran in light of the ending of the Iran nuclear deal. Good.

I don't buy the idea that there are up to 17,000 ISIL fighters in Iraq. That's close to the 20,000 al Qaeda that caused so much death and destruction during the Iraq War COIN fight. But as always, it may depend on definitions. I've long read that full time fighters are about 10% of any insurgency. If 17,000 includes all fighters, that could mean 1,700 full timers, which is in the ballpark of recent estimates, I think. Of course, I was never sure if the 20K represented the total or just the full timers. Nobody in the press ever asked that and the military never offered that granularity.

I'm sure a reasonably enlightened government can wisely police "bad comments" on social media, and punish the people who write them.

Is it possible that the Turkish currency problem is just the canary in the coal mine? That's outside my lane, so I have no idea if that is possible.

Oh good Lord, WTF?

Defending Taiwan is in America's interests as well as being the morally right thing to do. I've droned on about that for some time. But Taiwan should do far more to defend their free democracy given that China is close and America is far.