Russia is a regional military power with continents-spanning borders. Even before Russia wrecked its military trying and failing to quickly conquer Ukraine, Russia's conventional forces were inadequate for their long borders. Russia needs nukes to deter invasion. Russia's pucker factor is rising in the Arctic.
Russia plans to capitalize on the economic benefit of arctic trade, is increasing its military presence in the region, and is leveraging its dominance to conduct disruptive gray zone activity against US allies. But the retreat of arctic ice may not work entirely in Russia’s favor. As the ice melts, Russian nuclear weapons are becoming more vulnerable. Allies must thread the needle between appropriately exploiting this vulnerability, and avoiding Russian overreaction.
I have worried about Russian paranoia over their nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) sea bastions that protect the most survivable element of Russia's nukes that are the ultimate defense of Russia's long borders, their nuclear missiles.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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NOTE: Image from the article.
