Sunday, July 17, 2022

Weekend Data Dump

Sending in the robots.

Russian artillery usage. Lack of training and equipment limits their potential. Ukraine is beginning to target the Russian ammunition supply that enables Russian operations.

Meanwhile in space: “A Space Force X-37B reusable space plane surpassed 780 days in space July 7, eclipsing its prior endurance record.”

Russia’s doomsday nuclear torpedo. To avoid our almost non-existent missile defenses? Get real. Our ASW capabilities are far greater than our missile defenses. I imagine we’d drop torpedoes on Poseidon and destroy them all. I’m just not worried.

Developments in Russia. Also, America recognizes the Russian Kerch Strait bridge as a legitimate target.

I'm starting to have some sympathy for the Red Guards during China's Cultural Revolution who sent the university professors to the farms to do something useful. Too many professors pile up words and arcane jargon to hide the fact that they are highly partisan morons.

Erdogan is in trouble?

Another good jihadi: "An American drone strike killed the leader of the Islamic State in Syria on Tuesday, U.S. Central Command announced." Funny how losing the Afghanistan war didn't end the war on terror.

Massive firepower is a traditional method to make up for poor quality troops. Russia has been doing this since their troops retreated from their Kiev offensive. Will Ukraine break Russia's ability to use massive firepower?

HUMINT.

How bad off is Russia if getting Iranian weapons is a big deal? And if true, how is it that Iran can provide "hundreds" of drones and we've committed to only a dozen HIMARS?

Peace is their profession.

Australia is developing a strategy to oppose China based on long-range strike weapons, a nuclear-powered submarine force, and A2/AD capabilities "in cooperation with the United States[.]"

Does South Korea's decision to buy 20 F-35As imply a South Korean light carrier and a blue water navy is pushed back? 

Biden lost the Afghanistan war and now claims (falsely) that American troops aren't fighting in CENTCOM any more. Worse, the administration is condemning Afghanistan resistance to the Taliban. Jihadis will build their sanctuary there and we'll live to regret it. What is wrong with this administration?

Practicing American-Australian logistics.

Why would anyone read what this lying asshole has to say about foreign policy? Truly, he is a repulsive man.

The Navy exercised "innocent passage" in the South China Sea in a low-key challenge to Chinese territorial claims

As Russia's offensive pauses to rebuild ground power, tentative signs of Ukraine striking back.

Canada releases important equipment to enable Russia to export energy to Europe. But don't blame Canada too much. America and Europe backed that decision.

Russia ordered regional governments to organize volunteer battalions. The stripped down "battalions" of 400 men must just be light infantry cannon fodder with little in the way of heavy support. With little training, can they survive long in combat?

A tragic inability to distinguish between news and propaganda. Tip to Instapundit.

Using the S-300 air defense missile as a surface-to-surface missile. That isn't the only SAM that can be used that way.

Thanks California!

I think our country would be better off if about half of our professors had to learn to code or make half-caff cappuccinos.

Interesting information on the Ukraine War.

China is developing the H-20 stealth bomber. I wonder what its anti-ship capabilities will be. And by all means beef up Guam's air defenses.

Belarus ruler-for-life Lukashenko found that submitting to an Anschluss with Russia was necessary for his personal survival. But his people have complex reactions to that now. Was that a bad bet when Putin is eager for Lukashenko to join his war on Ukraine?

I'd be encouraged except that Biden thinks a deal with Iran is the means to do this: "U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid signed a joint pledge on Thursday to deny Iran nuclear arms, a show of unity by allies long divided over diplomacy with Tehran."

Inflation. Tip to Instapundit.

So, Nigeria is fun.

I'm sure I'd puke up my gutsy if I watched.

Too many of America's combat aircraft aren't combat worthy: "They are likely grounded due to maintenance problems, lack of spare parts, or just general wear and tear." Pray our enemies are in worse shape.

Hello China: "The Australian government is set to announce the design for its first nuclear submarine in the first quarter of 2023, ..." And it wants a faster timeline to deployment.

Well, we're aware of Pacific island nations, at least. It would be nice not to have to fight for them again.

I'm happy about this (via Instapundit): "Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about issues like gun control and abortion rights." And: "Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant." I used to at least admire Democrats for being pro-blue collar and pro freedom of speech and personal liberties. They lost that. So it is good that Republicans pick that up--and more. I don't like the isolationist component of the Republican evolution. Democrats remain supportive of foreign wars or helping friends fight common enemies only when a Democrat is president.

Cruise missiles are also a threat to the American homeland. Thoughts on that issue that don't rely on more fighter planes.

A pair of B-2 stealth bombers rotated into Australia for training. There has been extra Australia news lately.

Here we go: "The Royal Air Force’s experiments with drone swarms show they can overwhelm enemy defenses, and the concept would be ready for action in a war, according to the U.K. military service’s chief of staff." I'm worried about defending the "brown skies" over our forward troops, as I explored in Army magazine.

Air power has not been heavily used in the Winter War of 2022. Ukraine needs to preserve an air force that forces Russia to defend against the threat. And Russia is unwilling to risk expensive air power for this war when artillery and missiles can compensate for cautious air use. But in dire straits, they'd each burn their aircraft as Israel was forced to do in the early days of the 1973 war in the face of strong air defenses.

This means "reduce": "French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday he wanted a 'rethink of all our (military) postures on the African continent' and had asked his ministers and army chiefs to work on it."

Our enemies likely can't believe their luck to have (via Instapundit) an administration willing to fire troops for refusing to get a shot for what has become a cold-like Xi Jinping Flu virus. Our leaders think there are many substitutes for victory. Not content to thwart a good military in battle, now they want to create a poor quality military. FFS.

I've been puzzled about the status of Snake Island. It was clear that Russia retreated from it under fire. But Ukrainian occupation was unclear until I eventually read that Ukraine did land troops. Which seemed rash to me and as exposed as Russian troops were. Apparently Ukraine planted the flag and got the heck out of Dodge.

The United States really has no method for calculating relative combat power. I've noted our weakness. And here's a post working on the 3:1 rule that is so often mis-used.

It's easier to survive your tank's destruction if there is no fire. Surviving means you can get a new (or repaired) tank. So accept that tanks die. But protect the crew.

I mentioned this in a prior data dump. I guess we're that stupid.

Hamas reminds us they exist: "The Israeli military attacked what it said was a Hamas military site in the Gaza Strip early Saturday in response to a pair of rocket attacks overnight."

The Powerline Week in Pictures

Ukraine uses SADARM 2.0.

Hostage-taking on a grand scale: "U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has accused Russia of forcibly deporting hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians from areas it controls in the east and south of the country to Russia."

The United States may train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s and F-15s

Belarus is hanging around the edges of the war. Talking tough. But I can't imagine Lukashenko willingly attacking Ukraine with his weak military and divided country. His talk of a "big war" may justify his keeping out of the war to be ready for that big one.

Our woke senior military leadership under woke civilian orders has effed up a wet dream (via Instapundit): "The general public’s declining connection and trust in the nation and its institutions paired with the elites’ incessant culture war targeting the very Americans who traditionally served in the highest numbers spells trouble." Our enemies can only marvel at their luck. As I've observed:

 

No longer a useful idiot. Spreading the official "truth". Via Instapundit.

Ukraine gets its first MLRS, the original tracked version of the more recent HIMARS.

Europe faces a cold winter yet the West seems bizarrely unwilling to figuratively open the spigots on fossil fuel energy production and infrastructure expansion. Europe can't replace Russian energy in the short run, but maybe we can make the difference between freezing and surviving.

Is China's economy really headed for "free fall"?

LOL! "The world, Blair said, was at a turning point in history comparable with the end of World War Two or the collapse of the Soviet Union: but this time the West is clearly not in the ascendant." I don't think that former prime minister's pessimism will age well. 

Satirical Russian cartoon skewers Russia's justification for invading Ukraine. Satirical--for now

Green suicide. Well, murder-suicide. But I've made no pact with the nutballs. Via Instapundit.

I've expected a Ukrainian counter-offensive on the Kherson front for months. The Ukrainians say they will attack there. The Russians seem to expect an attack there. Which makes me wonder if Ukraine will attack there.