Geography at least somewhat balances China's shipbuilding superiority in a long war. We'll need a lot more air defense systems to cope.
China can produce more ships than America can:
China emerged as a global power by turning itself into the world’s factory floor. It is expanding that power, and its military might, with another striking industrial feat: becoming the world’s shipyard.
More than half of the world’s commercial shipbuilding output came from China last year—making it the top global shipmaker by a wide margin. The once-prolific shipyards of the West that helped forge empires, expand trade and win wars have shriveled. Europe accounts for just 5% of the world’s output, while the U.S. contributes next to nothing. Most of what China doesn’t build comes from South Korea and Japan.
Yes, China has the advantage over America in shipyards. And Europe doesn't add much more relative to China's capacity.
And I worry that China could hit America's few shipyards despite the distance. CONUS isn't a sanctuary anymore. China would have difficulty extending that campaign to European shipyards. Which would push a perhaps reluctant Europe to join the war. Would Russia help China by hitting those European shipyards? When China has largely stiff-armed Russia's desperate pleas for help subduing Ukraine?
Or perhaps China's hypersonic missiles would intimidate Europe into remaining neutral, I suppose. Keeping NATO intact with robust American leadership would prevent the EU from getting the authority to do that, eh?
Mind you, that kind of threat isn't a one-way street. With America's forward deployed forces and allies near China, America and its allies wouldn't need fancy, expensive, and rare hypersonics launched from space to hit China's far more numerous shipyards.
Yet on the third hand, South Korean and Japanese shipyards would face the same vulnerability with China close to them.
Then we're both in a battle between air defenses against air and missile power going after the other's missiles and drones that can target close shipyards.
Will covered or underground hardened shipyard facilities provide a decisive defensive edge?
And a battle to build warships and subs faster to avoid giving an enemy a lot of time to wreck the ship under construction would unfold. Could anything but cheaper ships meet that standard of speed?
So as long as I'm here I'll mention Modularized Auxiliary Cruisers. The new Liberty Ship to win a war?
Of course, ultimately I'd rather distract China inland to weaken their fleet before we have to face this problem.
UPDATE: American sealift is scarily insufficient. Tip to Instapundit.
Note that my meme shows Liberty ships being mass produced. This has long been a worry of mine.
UPDATE: We've long been warned.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
