China’s naval buildup is only part of an extraordinary maritime transformation—modern history’s sole example of a land power becoming a hybrid land-sea power and sustaining such an exceptional status. Underwriting this transition are a vast network of ports, shipping lines and financial systems, and—of course—increasingly advanced ships. All told, this raises the rare prospect of a top-tier non-Western sea power in peacetime, one of the few instances to occur since the Ming Dynasty developed cutting-edge nautical technologies and briefly projected unrivaled maritime power across the Indian Ocean. Now, for the first time in six centuries, commercial sea power development has flowed away from the Euro-Atlantic shipyards of the West, back toward an Asian land power that is going seaward to stay. Military sea power may be poised to follow.
Well, China has reduced their land power so much that America's land power is greater than China's these days. Which means the Chinese can't assume America can only fight China at sea and in the air (and in space and cyber, of course), as I wrote about in Military Review.
China faces a land threat from America. And we don't even border China, which has worried neighbors to soak up a lot of China's land power.
Really, we're the first sea power to become a hybrid land-sea power, and we've sustained that for quite some time now.
And has China really matched America's fleet, which would be joined by allies at sea? You can speak of sea developments shifting to Asia, but you have to include Japan, India, and even South Korea--who are allies or friends--and not just count China.
I don't assume that China will be the first land power to build land and sea power. Heck, it isn't the first when you consider that the Kaiser's Germany built quite a fleet that ended up being useless to their land needs; as did the Soviet Union.
If China hasn't reached this hybrid status by now, can they afford it?
China could be traveling a well-trod path to dilution of power. I think we need to see more than a couple decades of Chinese naval expansion before concluding that China can sustain this naval and land power (with both backed by air, cyber, and space power, of course).
And I would be remiss to note that China does not face formidable land powers on their border the way Germany and Russia did when they tried to be both land and sea powers.
For modern China, Russia is not a land threat to China because of weakness and India isn't a threat because of mountains. Vietnam and South Korea (even if united with North Korea) are smaller powers on narrow fronts. So it might be more accurate to say that China is transitioning from a land power to a sea power. We'll see if the need for land power to control their own people prevents China from sustaining their increased sea power.
Regardless, I do worry about China. Because they are a threat even with a reach of only 500 miles. But I don't panic.
Work the problem.
